Inception, Toy Story 3 Jump in Latest Oscar Index
Week seven of Movieline's Oscar Index brings a few resurgent, big-money forces into the awards-season spotlight, where a few familiar faces hold fast to their own power positions as well. And the cash is starting to flow. Exciting! Get back, recession! Read on to view the lay of the land and weigh in with your own assessments.
The Leading 10:
1. The Social Network
2. The King's Speech
3. 127 Hours
4. Inception
5. Black Swan
6. True Grit
7. Toy Story 3
8. The Fighter
9. The Kids Are All Right
10. Winter's Bone
Outsiders: Another Year; Blue Valentine; Love and Other Drugs; Made in Dagenham; For Colored Girls; How Do You Know
Notes: Two things this week about Picture: First, Toy Story 3 is riding a very healthy wave of buzz thanks to its DVD release on Tuesday. It's a canny maneuver by Disney, which had previously pushed Pixar's Best Picture hopefuls Up (which was nominated last year) and Wall-E (which narrowly missed the cut in 2008) in their respective seasons' first For Your Consideration ads. This year, meanwhile, Disney is doing what it has to do for the producers of Alice in Wonderland, whose billion-dollar worldwide gross apparently entitled them to the first FYC ad of the year. It'll go exactly nowhere except maybe the Golden Globes' Musical/Comedy pool, but at least everyone's sort of happy, and the studio's bases are covered either way.
Second, and actually totally fascinating, spend some time with David Poland's awards-season breakdown to date -- which features a long, persuasive reader comment about how and why Inception will be a force this winter. Among the eight reasons:
Warner Bros has played this game before and won twice before in the past 7 years.
Having played the long game before with both Million Dollar Baby and The Departed, WB have a good blueprint to work with Inception. They are also going to let the movie speak for itself and they have the goods: a engaging movie, an attractive & well-liked cast, and a director whose work has been consistently admired but not yet awarded. So, let The Social Network or 127 Hours or True Grit strike now and burn itself out to get the nomination. Just like The Departed, Inception is the elephant in the room not moving but always still there aiming for the Best Picture award. Voters will have to come back to it just to appreciate the detail put into the story and the characters again.
It's really a great read, and I'm impressionable enough (read: not so jaded this early in the season) to think if Warners can in fact move the needle this way in the weeks and months to come, why couldn't Christopher Nolan and Co. be near or at the front of the pack? I mean, it's not like anybody is writing awards-season exegeses about The Kids Are All Right or Black Swan right about now.
Oh, and big ups to The King's Speech for those eight British Independent Film Award nominations. Too bad that appalling poster cancels them out; better luck next week.
The Leading 5:
1. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
2. David Fincher, The Social Network
3. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
4. Christopher Nolan, Inception
5. Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Outsiders: David O. Russell, The Fighter; Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Mike Leigh, Another Year; Peter Weir, The Way Back; Edward Zwick, Love and Other Drugs
Notes: Everything above goes for Christopher Nolan, too, except his big story of the week was deflating Batman Nation with a sequel title like The Dark Knight Rises. On the one hand, I agree with Lane Brown at Vulture: "[Nolan] may make comic-book movies, but he reminds us this week that his are serious, 3-D-less, Riddler-free ones." On the other hand, they're still a laughingstock -- at last until they come out, and then we can all be depressed again and fight over said comic-book movies' Oscar chances.
Anyway, how about Danny Boyle! Fox Searchlight is pretending to downplay word that 127 Hours' amputation scene has caused fainting among multiple viewers, all while making Boyle available for every public appearance and/or interview and/or party and/or car-dealership ribbon-cutting in the continental United States. And he does so cheerfully as usual, the not-so-grizzled veteran alongside his freshfaced young star, both just happy to be here and to spread the gospel of cinema. I know Fincher is off shooting right now and everything, but even if he weren't, you'd have to wonder how or even if he and Sony would combat this momentum after such a torrid if aloof early-season run of their own. Developing...
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Comments
I'm not sure I agree with your Best Actor prediction. I know it's early days, but I'd put money on Firth winning. He probably deserved the win last year, and he has the advantage of age and being "due" (ironically the reason Bridges beat him last year). Franco may have put in a better performance, but he's young. A lot of voters will think that a nomination is enough for now.
I love your love for Jacki, Stu.
And yeah, I think this is Firth's to lose. Although the way the Academy has been skewing younger and younger each year, I wouldn't be at all surprised with a Franco win.
i don't think the academy feels like it owes firth anything. before last the only mainstream movie they would know him from was bridget jones. no one here cares about his ancient pride and prejudice turn.
I'm guessing by your "ancient" insult that Firth has been acting longer than you've been alive then?
i wish. i guess that's the only other time i can remember firth getting major praise beyond A single man. i'm not sure he's viewed as having a treasure-trove of overlooked performances.
You're right. Jamie Foxx is a prime example of that, I guess?
jamie foxx was an anomaly that year. it seemed like he was going to blow up between ray and collateral (granted he didnt). i like colin firth more but no one thinks he's about to become the next big thing. Maybe that's a good thing b/c academy-award winner jamie foxx followed up that year with Stealth.
also i was responding to third lion's comment that the academy might think firth is 'due.' so foxx doesn't really factor in.
Well, I was responding to both of you. I've always found this idea of being "due" rather daft; when you gather almost 6000 votes, it's all the more so. There is no "due". For every apparently "due" winner, I can guarantee I can give you a list of newbies that lucked into the award.
I think all this "he's due" and "it's his to lose" business will undue Firth's sure thing. I don't think there is *that* much stored up affection for Colin Firth. He's not Jeff Bridges last year (in that Bridges had more than one nomination and several notable performances and YEARS and YEARS of good/solid work and affection from his peers).
I still think it is possible for Franco to Adrien Brody that Best Actor Oscar away from Firth. And while The King's Speech is a more beloved than Gangs of New York was in it's day, Firth is not nearly as beloved as Daniel Day Lewis was then and Brody still managed to upset and win an Oscar people had earmarked for DDL from the start of that season. Franco could be our Best Actor winner come February.