Oscar Index: Is This the Year of Christian Bale, 'Chowderhead Vérité'?

The Leading 5:

1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter

2. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

3. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

5. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole

Outsiders: Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham; Sissy Spacek, Get Low; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Elle Fanning, Somewhere

Notes: While nobody seems to be able to move the needle on Mark Wahlberg and Amy Adams's performances in The Fighter, word over the transom at ML's Oscar bureau has Leo and Christian Bale being the real deal as the mother and brother/trainer (um, respectively, obviously) of Wahlberg's titular Boston pugilist Mickey Ward. The word "transformative" came up, as did the phrase "chowderhead vérité," which is, like, wwwwowwwww. Suck on that, Helena Bonham Carter. I defensively said, "Is it anything like Jacki Weaver's Aussie venom?" but never received a reply, because why waste words on the obvious? Still, I stand firm. Also: Dianne Wiest was in that sad trailer about the dead kid that made everybody weep. What did you accomplish this week, Miranda Richardson?

The Leading 5:

1. Christian Bale, The Fighter

2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

3. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps

4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

5. Ed Harris, The Way Back

Outsiders: Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Matt Damon, True Grit; Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Paul Rudd, How Do You Know

Notes: Again regarding Bale: "Chowderhead vérité." Rush doesn't stand a chance. Michael Douglas spiked upward after Anchor Bay Releasing assumed Best Actor campaigning duties for his film Solitary Man, featuring a performance that might have driven the conversation a year ago -- after its Toronto '09 premiere -- were it actually Oscar-worthy. So watch Fox jam this down a few thousand sympathetic Academy throats while Sam Rockwell (and Fox Searchlight) watches dolefully from the margins. Armie Hammer is actively campaigning these days, a clear advantage over his franchise-bound (and gagged) Social Network co-star and a clear threat to either Garfield or Harris. Or Rockwell, if his champions have their way. Should be interesting...

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