Oscar Index: Is This the Year of Christian Bale, 'Chowderhead Vérité'?

The Leading 5:

1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan

2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone

4. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

5. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham

Outsiders: Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine; Naomi Watts, Fair Game

Notes: As mentioned before, the Lawrence Express steams ahead while the Bening-Moore Local stops every few days on this blog or that. Nicole Kidman and her Rabbit Hole co-star Dianne Wiest benefited from Rabbit Hole's first real trailer, which may as well have just had AWARDS CONSIDERATION ONLY -- NOT FOR SALE watermarked on its lower third. And Anne Hathaway is back in the mix because her character gets naked and does a real good Parkinson's thing. I think? I only know what I hear.

Oh, and something something Halle Berry something something Frankie and Alice. Onward...

The Leading 5:

1. James Franco, 127 Hours

2. Colin Firth, The King's Speech

3. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

4. Javier Bardem, Biutiful

5. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter

Outsiders: Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version

Notes: You know what? Screw Colin Firth. This year, the Actor race will come down to James Franco, Javier Bardem and Robert Duvall -- that perfect, Academy-ready triangle of lust-for-life upstart, worldly pro and distinguished fogey, all delivering milestone performances in showcase films. I have no evidence or inside information directing me to this knowledge, but hey -- you have no evidence or inside information directing me otherwise. I just know. (And admit it: King's Speech audience awards aside, so do you.)

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