Fighter, Michael Douglas Punch Back in Latest Edition of Oscar Index

The Leading 5:

1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech

2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter

3. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

4. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham

5. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

Outsiders: Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole; Sissy Spacek, Get Low; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Elle Fanning, Somewhere

Notes: Everybody knew Melissa Leo would be back among the uppermost leaders at some point, and it took that new trailer -- and that accent, and that hair, God almighty that hair -- and all the other noise around the film to accomplish it. Jacki Weaver is still hanging in; people seem to want her to fare well despite all signs pointing to a complete lack of audience awareness of Animal Kingdom. I guess I'd better get on that. And check out Hailee Steinfeld, collecting swear-money from the boys on True Grit! True grit indeed. Finally, I think Sasha Stone's right about her case for a Sissy Spacek surprise -- I just don't know where she'd fit unless Richardson and Weaver dropped out. Coincidentally (conveniently?) their films share a distributor, so... yeah. Developing...

The Leading 5:

1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

2. Christian Bale, The Fighter

3. Ed Harris, The Way Back

4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

5. Sam Rockwell, Conviction

Outsiders: Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps; Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Matt Damon, True Grit; Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Justin Timberlake, The Social Network; Paul Rudd, How Do You Know

Notes: Watch out, everyone -- here comes Michael Douglas. Fox reportedly plans to push the ailing star to a nomination for reprising Gordon Gekko, the role that won Douglas his only Oscar in 1988. This is a little icky at best and ghoulish at worst; there's nothing especially accomplished or profound about Douglas's work or the film around it, but observers are wondering if the Cancer Vote or whatever you want to call it can overtake the likes of Armie Hammer or -- more likely -- Sam Rockwell for the last spot. And don't look now, but here comes shapeshifting ne'er-do-well townie Christian Bale, How Do You Know scene-stealer Paul Rudd, and underdog Matt Damon -- the latter of whom gets this stirring endorsement from Lane Brown: "Is he any good here? Who knows! But with Hereafter's middling reviews, voters won't be confused about which of his performances to support this year." Can't lie! Dude's got a point.

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