Fighter, Michael Douglas Punch Back in Latest Edition of Oscar Index

A month into fall movie season means a month into Movieline's Oscar Index, your regular one-stop, fool-proof, carefully metered and weighed survey of the ongoing awards race. A few new players enter the mix this week, including a pair of legends joining the supporting player sweepstakes. But do they have a shot? Show your work..

[Click each image for a bigger version of the graph.]

The Leading 10:

1. The Social Network

2. The King's Speech

3. 127 Hours

4. Black Swan

5. True Grit

6. The Kids Are All Right

7. The Fighter

8. Inception

9. Toy Story 3

10. For Colored Girls

Outsiders: Winter's Bone; Blue Valentine; Another Year; Made in Dagenham; The Way Back

Notes: This week's Best Picture index reflects a relative handful of key happenings. First, people got over Disney's Secretariat hype (at least for Best Picture; Diane Lane remains on the bubble for at least another week in Best Actress), which cleared a path for Winter's Bone to leap into contention after a big showing among Monday's Gotham Award nominations. I know, I know: "The Gothams have nothing to do with the Oscars whatsoever, get out of the business, let the professionals..." etc., etc. All I know is that the attention didn't work against The Hurt Locker -- another early-year starter -- in 2009. Furthermore, when pundits are actively parsing Bone's chances in the quick-burning afterglow of things like The Way Back, there's something there. It's not my fault we've got months to wait and see what it is.

For those people who believe any Best Picture winner must go through Toronto, the slight bump in buzz for 127 Hours during this week's initial U.S. press tour was a welcome development. For those who think TIFF is for frontrunners and flukes, The Social Network's stronghold and The Fighter's sharp upward mobility is very good news. The latter film unveiled a new trailer (on a crucial, prestige night for dramatic TV- and moviegoers), a new poster, and drew raves at ShowEast, stabilizing itself against some skeptics' early-season attacks. Toy Story 3 took one step forward (with a big push for its forthcoming DVD release) but took two steps back when producers Joe Roth and Dick Zanuck hilariously lobbied Disney to launch a Best Picture campaign for their blockbuster Alice in Wonderland. Better luck never, guys.

Also: I can't vouch for For Colored Girls' permanence in the top 10, but I can say it is awesome and ambitious and fascinating and I'll keep it there until the bad buzz overtakes it or Lionsgate gives up, whichever comes first. Til then: The Tyler Perry Oscar train is pulling out of the station! Wooo-woooo! All aboooooard!

The Leading 5:

1. David Fincher, The Social Network

2. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

3. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

4. Joel and Ethan Coen, _True Grit

5. Christopher Nolan, Inception

Outsiders: David O. Russell, The Fighter; Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Peter Weir, The Way Back; Mike Leigh, Another Year; Tyler Perry, For Colored Girls; Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right

Notes: Word on the street is that Danny Boyle has a legitimate chance at repeating as Best Director: He's staying in the spotlight, he's nicer than nice, and he has a better film than the one he Oscared with two years ago. Fincher's movie may still be superior (and Hooper's may yet be superior to both, at least as far as ballots go), but a lot may also hinge on their respective actors' fortunes -- and Franco is coming up fast as well. Russell was the week's biggest hype beneficiary, though you're going to have to see some seismic friggin' acclaim for The Fighter for the erstwhile enfant terrible to scoot anywhere near the front of this talented pack.

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