Oscar Index: Coen Brothers, Tyler Perry (!) Make Early Strides in Awards Race

The Leading 5:

1. [TIE] Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech; Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

3. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

4. Melissa Leo, The Fighter

5. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham

Outsiders: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Elle Fanning, Somewhere; Juliette Lewis, Conviction; Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole

Notes: Young Hailee Steinfeld sprung into a hype-fueled dead heat with Helena Bonham Carter, but check out the resurgent Jacki Weaver! Your own radical campaign T-shirt will tend to do that for you. Jacki Weaver FTW!

The Leading 5:

1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

2. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network

3. Christian Bale, The Fighter

4. Justin Timberlake, The Social Network

5. Sam Rockwell, Conviction

Outsiders: Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Matt Damon, True Grit; John Malkovich, Secretariat; Vincent Cassel, Black Swan

Notes: Like their movies' counterparts in the Actor category, Rush and Garfield will be waiting for the likes of The Fighter and True Grit before settling too comfortably into the one-two spot. But they've got to feel great about their chances at this point -- particularly Garfield, with even the rare Social Network critic managing to drop in a complimentary notice while picking apart virtually every performance around him. Hammer could usurp Timberlake's spot without much difficulty, especially as Academy voters discover the staggering dual nature of his performance as the Winklevoss twins. As for Rockwell... hang in there, Sam! If anyone wants to see you at the Kodak Theater next February, it's me.

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