Oscar Index: Coen Brothers, Tyler Perry (!) Make Early Strides in Awards Race

The Leading 5:

1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan

2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

3. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right

4. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham

5. Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs

Outsiders: Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone; Diane Lane, Secretariat; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Naomi Watts, Fair Game

Notes: Not unlike True Grit, word is spreading that Love and Other Drugs is miscategorized as an Oscar-season hopeful -- that Anne Hathaway's performance is fine (the Academy loves disabilities) but "talk to me after you've seen it"... That kind of thing. Why be rational now, though?! This is the Oscars! Still, Made in Dagenham was celebrated in New York this week, boosting once more the profiles of its acting hopefuls Sally Hawkins and Miranda Richardson. And at least one pundit is super-optimistic (and at least somewhat convincing) about Bening and Moore's chances to grab two of the five top spots when nominations are announced next January. Watch out for Diane Lane, another Academy fave who will live or die by Secretariat's box-office performance this week and next.

The Leading 5:

1. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network

2. Colin Firth, The King's Speech

3. James Franco, 127 Hours

4. Javier Bardem, Biutiful

5. Jeff Bridges, True Grit

Outsiders: Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version; Ryan Reynolds, Buried

Notes: Along with Director, is this likely to be the least fluid major category headed into nominations? Eisenberg hitched on to his film's momentum to overtake Firth, but that lead will trade hands more times than a stock-car race by the time this is over. Franco made the critical strategic move of posing in drag on a magazine cover, thus jousting him over the ever-calm, slowly sliding Javier Bardem. Bridges cracked the Top Five on the basis of his career-best line reading, "I can't do nothing for you, son" -- officially the slogan of Awards Season '10 around Movieline HQ.

These guys and their films will bruise each other for months, but excepting Wahlberg and possibly Duvall, I'd say all five had better be in it for the long haul.

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