Oscar Index: Coen Brothers, Tyler Perry (!) Make Early Strides in Awards Race

The latest edition of the 2010 Oscar Index at the end of a relatively quiet week of awards buzz, with old favorites holding strong, a few new upstarts cracking the race and just about everyone else waiting to see what the Coens, David O. Russell and Tyler Perry (yes, that Tyler Perry) have up their sleeves. Read on for the latest rankings.

[Click each image for a bigger version of the graph.]

The Leading 10:

1. The Social Network

2. The King's Speech

3. Black Swan

4. True Grit

5. 127 Hours

6. The Kids Are All Right

7. Inception

8. The Fighter

9. Toy Story 3

10. For Colored Girls

Outsiders: Secretariat; Another Year; The Town ; Made in Dagenham; Somewhere; Love and Other Drugs

Notes: Three notable developments occurred this week right at the top, middle and bottom of the Best Picture Index. First, The Social Network's reviews were so good, its box-office opening so respectable, and its Academy screening well-received enough that the issue wasn't how it would hold on to its front-runner status, but rather how Harvey Weinstein might forcibly yank it from David Fincher and Co.

Meanwhile, True Grit followed last week's stirring teaser with a pulpy (maybe too pulpy, according to some) new trailer and poster. While the latter doesn't feature any stars, the cast as featured in the trailer acquits itself admirably and persuasively. The only question: Is this glorified genre flick really an "Oscar" film? Maybe, maybe not. It seems obvious enough to me that if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck -- and was important enough 40 years ago to earn John Wayne an Oscar like a... Duke (ahem) -- then it's a big, fat, awards-craving duck.

Finally, Lionsgate is serious about advancing Tyler Perry in this year's race, unleashing a striking new poster (right here!) and, more importantly, working to diversify the Oscars any way they can. Like True Grit, all we've seen is marketing, so keep your grain of hype salt handy. But when the overriding discussion about the closest competition on the bubble is how it wants to become the next Blind Side, don't think it hasn't occurred to Perry and Lionsgate how much better a chance they stand to have the next Precious. Don't even laugh.

The Leading 5:

1. David Fincher, The Social Network

2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech

3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

4. Joel and Ethan Coen, _True Grit

5. Christopher Nolan, Inception

Outsiders: Darren Aronofsky, _Black Swan; David O. Russell, The Fighter; Mike Leigh, Another Year; Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right; Tyler Perry, For Colored Girls

Notes: Not a lot to mention here beyond a lot of the above: The Coens are surging on the basis of some savvily timed market presence, not to mention the virtual inability of anybody beyond maybe Danny Boyle -- whose 127 Hours has shown decent leverage even ahead of its big pre-release push starting next week -- to mobilize any individual buzz, like, at all. Aronofsky paid for Boyle's steadiness, the Coens' upward burst and Christopher Nolan's comfortable, semipermanent fifth-place perch, but no worries; he'll be back as Black Swan approaches in December and once we see what Tom Hooper is really made of with the Academy.

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