Fuzzy Movieline Math: How Many People Will Watch the Emmys on Sunday?

Only a shade more than 13 million people tuned in to watch the Emmy Awards on CBS last year... and it was considered a moderate success because of its competition (a Giants/Cowboys NFL game), calendar placement (September 20) and the prior year's record low numbers. On Sunday, the battle for eyeballs will be slightly less uphill, but Jimmy Fallon and Co. still have their work cut out for them. Just how many of the Nielsen estimated 294-plus million American TV watchers will tune in though? Click ahead as Movieline attempts to sort it all out.

· Mad Men

Mad Men might win its fair share of Emmys on Sunday night -- go Jon Hamm! -- but most of its fans on the East Coast will probably be missing the acceptance speeches in order to watch the all-new episode. The good news? Pacific Time Zoners won't have to make this Sophie's Choice, so the Emmys won't get totally killed there. Since under 3 million people nationwide even watch Mad Men, however, it doesn't really matter either way: -0.5 million

· True Blood, Entourage, Hung

Like Mad Men, most Eastern Time Zone-bound True Blood fans will probably want to see their beloved show live instead of seeing its fully-clothed stars on the Emmy telecast. Entourage and Hung, not so much: -5 million.

· Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos

Just because no one actually cares about the NFL preseason doesn't mean they won't watch it. Last Sunday over 6 million people tuned in to watch the preseason debut of Brett Favre; this Sunday's match-up is much less sexy, however, so maybe the Emmys caught a break: -4.5 million

· MTV's Jersey Shore Marathon and CBS's Big Brother

It's hard for the Emmys to compete with either masturbating or Snooki: -3 million

· Indifference

Last year, hundreds of millions of people didn't watch the Emmy Awards. Expect that trend to continue: -266 million

Total Viewers: 15 million, which would rank as the most-watched Emmy telecast since 2006. Good luck, Jimmy!