Emmy Spotlight: Is Mad Men, Breaking Bad, or Lost the Best Drama Series?

We're at the final award in our Emmy oddsmaking: Is Mad Men going to win its third Best Drama Series Emmy in a row? Will Breaking Bad take over? What about Lost? The Good Wife? True Blood? Dexter? We count down their chances after the jump.

Breaking Bad

For It: Bryan Cranston's taken home the hardware the past two years and co-star Aaron Paul stands a real chance of earning his first trophy. Better yet, the critically hailed series enjoyed its best season yet as it warped into a fulgent display of unhinged intentions and inhumanity. This certainly trumps Mad Men's (sad to say) relatively staid third season. The all-important title of "coolest show on TV" may have just changed hands from Don Draper to Walter White.

Against It: Awards in two acting categories could be seen as compensatory for the Emmy committee, who might need to honor a mourned series like Lost more emphatically in major categories.

Odds: 2:1

Lost

For It: As Lost billowed to a climax, viewers (and skeptics) feared (and sniffed that) its myriad of riddles and mysteries wouldn't be explained in time. And they were right. But the show concluded with a generally lauded finale -- and Matthew Fox's best performance -- which should render it a top contender for the big prize.

Against It: Lost may have baited devotees 'til the bitter end, but Breaking Bad's character arcs are too gripping for second prize.

Odds: 4:1

Mad Men

For It: The Emmy fave scored another hogshead of nominations, meaning it's still a voter coup. The dissolution of the Draper marriage and the rise of Sterling Cooper Draper Pryce marked a stark tonal shift for the series that always threatens its characters with the future. As such, the evolution of these polished denizens is still a candy-colored knockout.

Against It: If Breaking Bad can't beat Mad Men with the season it's had, there's literally nothing that show can do to overcome Matthew Weiner. And furthermore, where was Joan this season? And how dare they jettison Sal like that?

Odds: 7:1

Dexter

For It: Support is burgeoning for Dexter as Michael C. Hall has yet to snag an acting win for giving the show's only great performance. Like Breaking Bad, its most recent season concluded with a shocking moment, and that's often enough to clinch a series win.

Against It: For all of Dexter's ghastly fun, it's not a fully formed riot of psychosis and intrigue the way AMC's flagships are.

Odds: 15:1

True Blood

For It: Did it just have its best season? Yes. Is it an under-rewarded rope of libidinous licorice? Yes. Does it have a fanbase that desperately wants it to win? Yes.

Against It: The show's sexiness sets it apart from the other nominees, but True Blood is still not the critical juggernaut that our top two picks are.

Odds: 20:1

The Good Wife

For It: Julianna Margulies is a shoo-in for Best Dramatic Actress, and this traditional drama took a sort-of hokey concept and fleshed it out with a lovable supporting cast. Christine Baranski and Archie Panjabi earned their nominations.

Against It: Uh, can you imagine if The Good Wife won Best Drama Series? This year? Try again when AMC cancels itself.

Odds: 40:1