How Much Will Scott Pilgrim vs. The World Make This Weekend, Anyway?
Unless watching nubile young co-eds get torn to shreds is your idea of a good time, this weekend marks the end of the summer from a box-office relevance standpoint. Though at least things will probably go out with a bang: It has been widely predicted that The Expendables and Eat, Pray, Love will each open to around $30 million in ticket sales, but what of the third major release hitting theaters on Friday, Universal's Scott Pilgrim vs. The World? Good question! Ahead, Movieline handicaps its box-office bonafides.
Michael Cera
Let's start at the top. Universal might have hidden his face on the poster, but Michael Cera is in every frame of the trailer; he's Scott Pilgrim and this is his movie. Cera's track record at the box office has been underwhelming at best. Superbad is the high opening for him, but if you consider that the outlier, his other films have been somewhat disappointing: $11 million for Nick & Norah and the Infinite Playlist, $19 million for Year One (which he shared with Jack Black), $6 million for Youth in Revolt. Average those three out and you get $12 million -- and right now, that feels like the amount of money Cera alone can bring in for a movie: +$12,000,000
Built-in Fan Base
All six of Bryan Lee O'Malley's Scott Pilgrim books made the top 10 list of bestselling graphic novels last month, with the sixth and final volume -- Scott Pilgrim's Finest Hour -- on top despite not coming out until July 20. That book sold out of its initial 100,000 printings within a few days of release -- an additional 50,000 copies were shipped to distributors -- and currently ranks in the top-50 on Amazon. So, there are many fans. But there aren't that many; this isn't Eat, Pray, Love we're talking about. If every person who purchased Scott Pilgrim's Finest Hour buys a ticket to see the film over the weekend, they'll account for less than $5 million in grosses. Plus in the Venn diagram of hipsters, there's probably lots of crossover between Cera fans and Scott Pilgrim readers. As such: +$3 million
The Twitter Effect/Bloggers
According to Box Office, Scott Pilgrim vs. The World had a whopping 17,465 tweets posted about it on Wednesday, a number that accounted for 34 percent of all movie-related chatter on Twitter. According to a scan of my Google Reader, film bloggers are writing about Scott Pilgrim almost as much as they're writing about themselves. Of course, considering anyone who is posting/reading about Scott Pilgrim likely plans on seeing the film anyway, this doesn't seem to prove anything. In the olden days, they used to call this sort of thing "preaching to the choir": +$1 million
Date Night
Here's a place where Scott Pilgrim can really make hay: The Expendables and Eat, Pray, Love are being positioned like a junior high dance -- boys on one side, girls on the other. Scott Pilgrim, however, can act as a compromise for couples looking to see something together this weekend. That those couples will probably have to be under-40 somewhat limits the box office potential, however... unless you think that people over-40 will want to see Scott Pilgrim, a position which seems tenuous at best: +$3 million
Intangibles
There is one thing going for Scott Pilgrim that neither Eat, Pray, Love nor The Expendables can claim in their favor: originality. Yes, it stars Michael Cera as "Michael Cera," but the world presented in the trailers for Scott Pilgrim is like nothing you've seen before. Not even Kick-Ass -- the last buzz-y graphic novel adaptation to hit theaters -- could claim that. In a summer that has found filmgoers starved for original material -- see: Inception -- don't be all that surprised to see Scott Pilgrim do better than anticipated based solely on the fact that it's different: +$3 million
Total Predicted Weekend Gross: $22 million
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Comments
No chance, unfortunately. Crowded weekend and people still have no idea what the movie is about. Look at the awkward way they're trying to explain why people are fighting in the TV spots. "In musicals..." etc.
You forgot "Nerds intimidated by 'roid boys seeing Expendibles,", -$5 million.
I'm not so sure that _Expendables_ is going to be such a boys-only affair (at least not to the degree that _Eat, Pray, Blah_ will be a females only affair). Hardly a huge sample, but I have more than a few female friends who are excited to see _The Expendables_ because of all that mancandy in the cast. WTF does _Scott Pilgrim_ have to offer them? Cera? Puh-leezzze.
Whoever wrote this article must love michael cera. He's funny sometimes no doubt, but he can't open up a movie. Out of all those movies you mentioned, the only hit was the movie he was introduced to the 'world' in. No idea why people think he's a lead.
I think this oversells Cera's independent box office appeal and fails to factor in two important considerations in thinking about the opening. #1 The film has very good reviews (Zacharek not withstanding) which will help with viewers who have a casual curiosity in it. #2 Edgar Wright. I can't be alone in thinking the best reason to see this movie is the direction of Edgar Wright. Shaun of the Dead and Hot Fuzz were both successful and well-liked films - I think that will impact ticket buyers potential a good deal.
I agree with Bwozar with Edgar Wright's fan-base he's built up as well - getting eight times his budget for Shaun of the Dead and ten times his budget with Hot Fuzz. With a budget on Scott Pilgrim of a reported 60 million dollars, it'll be interesting to see how much he tops it at the box office.
There's also the video game crowd that has never been targeted quite this way in a movie. Last minute promotions such as the weather report, or Edgar showing at Stallone's The Expendables premiere and vise-versa also adds to the already effective marketing campaign - both viral and elsewhere.
Plus the reviews have been pretty good thus far, with the only papers not really liking it are things such as The New Yorker, which makes sense.
@NP - it has actual comedy that can be appreciated by both genders. No need to say that a movie isn't worthy because it doesn't have obvious six-packs everywhere (really reveals something about your character, if that's what you look for in a movie).
Reveals something about my character? Because I think the attractive cast is a good reason to go see a movie like _The Expendables_ and have noticed that some friends feel the same way? That's some fancy extrapolating you did there! Sorry, I should have mentioned all the other reasons it's worth seeing: the script is no doubt Oscar-worthy, a tapestry of expert storytelling and organic, subtle character development. I hear the score is the perfect aural complement to Jeffrey Kimball's masterful cinematography, which makes sense since Tony Morales contributed to the score--who could forget his arresting arrangements in, uh... _The Final Destination_ or _Law Abiding Citizen_?? I'd be remiss if I didn't say I was looking forward to Stallone's finely tuned direction. Those are the real reasons people want to see _The Expendables_. It has nothing to do with muscly men blowing shit up.
I guessed I missed the trailer you are talking about. The trailers I have seen never say "In musicals..." and explain why he is fighting so I don't understand the confusion there.
"Those are the real reasons people want to see The Expendables. It has nothing to do with muscly men blowing shit up."
That is the funniest thing I have heard lately. Not that blowing up things is the only reason people are going to see it but IMO that and the star-studded cast are towards the top of the list of reasons why people are going to see it. That being said it is not a bad thing I just think you're disillusioned thinking people aren't going for that reason.
Not really. I've never heard of Scott Pilgrim. And the trailers look dumb. Not because of the cartoonish look but because the material(jokes, story, etc). And the artifice looks pretty purposeless, as usual of Hollywood.
What about the gaming community? I think all the video game graphics give it an edge--especially to anyone who has ever played Super Mario, Zelda, etc. Also, it was getting a lot of good buzz around Comic-Con-- with the T-Shirt Truck and secret screenings. My friends even met Michael Cera while he was walking around wearing a gorilla mask. I remember when Superbad had their panel at the Con it definitely opened me up to the movie (which I normally wouldn't have been interested in seeing) and I totally went and saw it in the theaters. I think it'll have a similar effect for those not aware of the graphic novels.
I'm a straight man so maybe I'm not the best source here - but aren't Chris Evans and Brandon Routh every bit as - if not more - attractive than Jason Statham and Stallone's collection of steroid users?