Emmy Spotlight: Is Joan Holloway Due for a Win?
Christina Hendricks wielded two important instruments as Joan Holloway during season three of Mad Men: command of her startling B-plot, and a big breakable vase. Will her smashing performance put her in serious contention for an Emmy triumph? Movieline ranks her odds against her five competitors.
Notable Snubs: Chloe Sevigny, Big Love, Khandi Alexander, Treme
1. Elisabeth Moss - Mad Men
For Her: Peggy Olsen is the reason Mad Men is interesting. You can reduce Don Draper's mystique to lies, smarts, and an unresolved upbringing, but Peggy isn't so easy to boil down: really, she's the most spontaneous and maddening character in the series. She's now spent three seasons figuring out how womanly she's allowed to be in the swaggering speakeasy of Sterling Cooper (as Don Draper fling Bobbie Barrett once noticed and commented upon), but her arc is still subverted by the Aspergian social graces that make her more intriguing than a traditional underdog. In Moss's nominated episode, Peggy rolls her eyes at the agency's new ad for Patio soda and scoffs at the Ann-Margret copycat who stars in it. Here, she proves she knows Sterling-Cooper's clientele better than her co-workers, as well as what women want. Pure Peggy power.
Against Her: Moss's switch from a lead actress contender to a supporting actress is smart, but some may believe her character's moments of revelation are less invigorating than co-star Christina Hendricks' va-va-voom ferocity. They'd be wrong, but they're voting and I'm not. She's also up against serious Emmy heavyweights who've been nominated up to 10 times before.
Odds: 3-1
2. Christine Baranski - The Good Wife
For Her: An Emmy favorite since her award-winning days on Cybill, Baranski strikes just the right note as liberal senior partner Diane Lockhart -- she's finally found an addictively brooding drama that's perfect for the boardroom-ready snarl we've come to associate with her characters. In Baranski's submitted episode, the anti-gun Diane consults with a conservative ballistics expert who she starts to fall for. Complexity!
Against Her: The Good Wife is serviceable three-star drama, but to reward two wins in the acting department (since lead Julianna Margulies is all but a shoo-in) is overkill.
Odds: 5-1
3. Sharon Gless - Burn Notice
For Her: Remember what I said about 10-time Emmy nominees? That title belongs to Gless, who earned nods on Cagney & Lacey, The Trials of Rosie O'Neill, and even a short stint on Nip/Tuck. She also deserved (but never received) mentions for her work as empathetic PFLAG powerhouse Debbie Novotney on Queer as Folk, a series that would've buckled without her. On Burn Notice's third season finale, Gless gives us outright Emmy bait: an emotional outburst from her character Madeline Westen, who is arrested and acquainted with a big slice of the truth about her son Michael, to whom she devotes much neuroticism and Novotneyian concern.
Against Her: It's a big episode for Gless, but after two years of award-season veterans earning the big trophy (Dianne Wiest in '08 and Cherry Jones in '09), it's time for the academy to recognize newer talent in the supporting actress field.
Odds: 10-1
4. Christina Hendricks - Mad Men
For Her: There's no doubt that Joan Holloway is a crowd favorite among Mad Men devotees, as she reigns over the secretarial pool and humanizes herself by comforting her terrible husband Greg, a budding surgeon who is told he "has no brains in his fingers." In her nominated episode, "Guy Walks Into an Advertising Agency," Joan shows off domestic smarts and whip-smart office instincts when assessing the lawnmower accident of the century, and even enjoys light-hearted badinage with serial scowler Don Draper.
Against Her: Others rank Hendricks higher since her episode gave Joan the screen time and dimension her comeliness has demanded since season one, but I believe Elisabeth Moss's character arc is ultimately more interesting. Joan's general infallibility (Matthew Weiner almost never wants us to dislike her) makes her less magnetic than Peggy.
Odds: 15-1
5. Rose Byrne - Damages
For Her: She's been nominated twice now, and Byrne's character Ellen Parsons is both conniving and engaging. In her submission episode, Ellen has us wondering how safe Patty's secrets are with Ellen -- and if Ellen has forgiven Patty after all. A great premiere.
Against Her: Damages has seen better days, and Ellen's dramatic turns now often seem more pulpy than impressive.
Odds: 20-1
6. Archie Panjabi - The Good Wife
For Her: Without Archie Panjabi, the character of Kalinda Sharma might seem dull in a contrived, sub-Jill Hennessy way. But Panjabi's eyebrow jolts and self-satisfied quips came a long way during The Good Wife's first season, and in her nominated episode "Hi," Panjabi scintillates as she cracks a murder case and assists Peter (Chris Noth) with testimony during his hearing.
Against Her: See: Christine Baranski's "Against Her." Panjabi's character could stand to develop more in a season that mostly served to buttress voter sympathies for Margulies, and it could be said that Panjabi's nomination displaced the more deserving Chloe Sevigny.
Odds: 25-1

Comments
Big Love was a mescaline-fueled train wreck this year. Sevingy admitted this, then trashed The Onion reporter while making her retraction. In no way does her omission seem like a snub.
Khandi ALexander, Melissa Leo, and Kim Dickens were all amazing on Treme. Those were some notable snubs!
Sevignys ommision is most defininately a snub. The show itself may not have been worthy of a nomination, but Chloe Sevingy turned in another fantastic performance DESPITE the mess she was given to work with. As did Matt Ross, who was also deserving and snubbed. The blame for the "train wreck", as you call it, falls squarely on the shoulders of c0-creators/producers Mark Olson and Will Scheffer. It's hardly Sevignys, or Paxtons, or Tripplehorns, or Goodwins, fault that they were given sub-par writing or ill-conceived plot lines. And, give me a break, her saying the A.V. Club reporter provoked her is hardly "trashing" him.
"Christina Hendricks wielded two important instruments as Joan Holloway during season three of Mad Men..."
Oh, don't think we didn't see what you did there.
I can think of two good reasons.
Barely got any screen time last season except for the episode where she played the accordion
"In her submission episode, after Patty (Glenn Close) hands off a bloodied handbag to Ellen and we see it in the hands of a homeless man, we’re left to wonder just how safe Patty’s secrets are with Ellen ..."
Huh?! Did you actually watch the episode? When Patty gives the handbag to Ellen, it's brand new and sans blood. The bag doesn't become bloody until TWELVE episodes later. Why on earth would anyone care about your "insights" when you're incapable of comprehending the tapes you're discussing? Pathetic.
Christ God, it was a typo. I conflated an earlier version of that paragraph with a re-edited one. I decided to erase that sentence so viewers who haven't watched wouldn't be confused.
You know what's never pathetic? Spewing bile in a comments section under a pseudonym.
Notable snubs: Yunjin Kim.
Moss and Hendricks noms don't make much sense with the limited time they had.
speaking of snubs, am I the only one who thinks that, just maybe, we should have seen one of the true blood ladies up here? Deborah Ann Woll is always great as Jessica, Tara is becoming more and more awesome, and Kristen Bauer is deliciously evil as pam. So, seriously, shouldn't at least ONE of them be on the nom list?
side biceps shot, my biceps are quite peaked so it really shows them off