Emmy Spotlight: Will Lea Michele Rob Toni Collette?

In today's installment of our Emmy size-ups, Movieline inspects the heated and varied competition in the Best Actress in a Comedy Series category. Toni Collette may play Tara Gregson's disassociating psyche with all the right blasts of exasperation and id, but can she outmatch the hungry Lea Michele, Edie Falco, and Amy Poehler? Time to rack up the odds.

Notable Snubs: Mary-Louise Parker, Weeds, Courteney Cox, Cougar Town, Patricia Heaton, The Middle

Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie

For Her: No doubt about it, Nurse Jackie's appeal hinges on Edie Falco's performance. Falco is a three-time Emmy winner, but her role is too cool and respectable to be overlooked.

Against Her: A first-season win for a series with plenty of room to grow may seem premature to voters, but of course, that's exactly what happened with Toni Collette for United States of Tara last year. Amended!

Odds: 3-2

Toni Collette - United States of Tara

For Her: Collette took home the hardware in 2009, and USoT's second season improved dramatically upon the first. Now that Tara's "alters" exist co-consciously and the real Tara has fallen a few fathoms into her harrowing backstory, Collette's acting challenge is even more apparently impressive.

Against Her: For all of the series' swiftly explored depth, United States of Tara isn't quite as flashy as the other nominees. Crediting Collette with a double-win may feel like overkill in Emmy circles, who have a lot of buzzy new talent to consider this year.

Odds: 3-1

Tina Fey - 30 Rock

For Her: Fey's performance in the "Dealbreakers" episode, where Liz Lemon makes a quivery attempt at hosting her own talk show, is magnificent, side-splitting, and absurd. She had us crying out of our mouths. Also working in Fey's favor: She's the best speechifier in Hollywood.

Against Her: The popular consensus is that 30 Rock's fourth season is its least funny, even if it's still much funnier than Parks and Recreation and Community. (And you know it is!) More damning, though, is 30 Rock's reputation as a rote Emmy committee favorite. Even Tina Fey can't self-deprecate her way out of her show's unquestionable top-dog status, and that could be a burden in this category.

Odds: 5-1

Lea Michele - Glee

For Her: Everyone who isn't me just loves Glee. In just one season, it's become a generational landmark, with Broadway-reared Michele singing "Don't Rain on My Parade" front and center.

Against Her: Gleebasers don't relish one particular performance on the show; they dig the smartly chosen ensemble. Rachel Berry is also one of Glee's least consistent characters who's been dogged with a number of dopey storylines. Worst of all, she is not Jane Lynch, who will win an Emmy this year for outclassing all of her costars.

Odds: 10-1

Amy Poehler - Parks and Recreation

For Her: Parks and Rec won hipster cred in its second season, and Poehler herself is entering a realm of critical acclaim that smacks of Tina Fey's fast rise.

Against Her: Poehler still seems like a shrinking violet among these Emmy contenders, and Parks and Rec's cooler-than-thou fanbase seems more enamored of Aziz Ansari than the dependable Poehler. Furthermore, Emmy voters are not cooler-than-thou: It's going to take them another season to seriously consider this cast's gifts.

Odds: 20-1

Julia Louis-Dreyfus - The New Adventures of Old Christine

For Her: Christine's abrupt cancellation could render Louis-Dreyfus a sentimental favorite at the eleventh hour. Against this tableau of newcomers, she could seem like a wronged talent and a deserving champion.

Against Her: She already won the trophy for Christine during a particularly uncompetitive year, and now that she's up against two Showtime doyennes, two hipper SNL alums, and the fervor of Glee, she's simply the most forgettable nominee.

Odds: 40-1