Conviction Trailer: Could it Be Swank vs. Bening, Round 3?
Last year, we wondered whether Hilary Swank and Annette Bening were fated to have yet another Best Actress rematch at the Oscars... then Swank's Amelia bombed and Bening's Mother and Child wasn't even released in 2009 (instead, it made a negligible ripple earlier this year). Maybe we were just a little premature, since Bening's got The Kids Are All Right coming very soon and Swank has Conviction (formerly named Betty Anne Waters). Lets dig into the new Conviction trailer and guess at her odds.
Conviction tracks the true story of Betty Anne Waters (Swank), who puts herself through high school, college, and law school in decade-spanning mission to exonerate her brother Kenny (Sam Rockwell), who's been wrongfully sentenced to life in prison for murder. If that's not Oscar baity for you, take a look at this trailer: Real-life stories, unglamorous aging, Oscar-nominated supporting actors, inspirational scoring, and the accents...oh, the accents! Julianne Moore is watching this trailer and thinking, "WHAT is up with these Massachusetts accents?"
Despite it all... I kind of want to see it? I mean, it's partially that whenever I interview Ari Graynor, she tells me that it's really, really good (so shame on this trailer for including zero Ari), but maybe it's because this terrible summer movie season has warped my brain. This may not be a Somewhere or a Never Let Me Go, but at least it's not The A-Team. And thank God for that.
VERDICT: Soooold. (That was supposed to be a hammy Masshole accent.)

Comments
It is super Oscar baity and all, but I like the odds that this could turn out to be quite good. The supporting cast is very strong. I'll see this twice before going near _Somewhere_ or _Never Let Me Go_.
Even if this does well a la The Blindside I still don't see them giving Swank a third BA Oscar, she is no Kathrine Hepburn. But a third win on a third nomination would certainly make the history books. I guess it all depends on who her competition is, and to be honest I don't see Bening winning for either of her two starring roles. I don't think the Academy considers her over due as maybe they did with Winslet, because in most of her nominated performances (expect American Beauty) Bening was good but not great. And if they wanted to give her a "make-up" Oscar for American Beauty they could've done that in 2005.
Seriously, does Sam Rockwell ever do a bad movie? No doubts in my mind about this one.