Handicapping the American Idol Top 12

Michael Lynche

Fun fact: "Big Mike" is kind of awesome. Still not going to win, though. If that thought bums you out, just imagine him back at home, cuddling his cute newborn baby. See? You feel better already.

Odds of winning: 9 to 1

Paige Miles

A too-frequent victim of the judges' other go-to criticism of season 9: "You don't know what kind of an artist you want to be." Just once, we'd like to hear one of the contestants sass Simon with, "I want to be the kind of artist who gets super f*cking rich off this silly karaoke contest, and the first thing I'm going to buy is a new sweater for you, Captain Manboobs." Paige Miles, your date with history awaits.

Odds of winning: 12 to 1

Tim Urban

It's going to be a poignant moment when someone finally sits down Urban and breaks the soul-shattering news. "Bro. At the end of Boogie Nights, Dirk Diggler's music career doesn't go anywhere. Sorry, man. You should've watched the whole thing."

Odds of winning: 40 to 1

Odds of not lasting the week: 1.5 to 1

Siobhan Magnus

Ladies and gentlemen, your next Amerrrrrrican Idol! Unless she completely loses her mind in the finals, deciding to toss her painstakingly arranged, mind-blowing interpretation of "Bohemian Rhapsody" in favor of scatting five minutes of digital bleeps from Radiohead's Hail to the Thief, just because she's always dreamed of doing that in front of 30 million people.

Odds of winning: 3 to 1

Odds of wandering off stage in the middle of her Rolling Stones performance tonight, then strolling back on nonchalantly and totally killing the remainder of the song: 5 to 1

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