6 Snubs and Surprises to Expect From This Year's Oscar Nominations

BEST ACTOR

IN: Viggo Mortensen, The Road

OUT: Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

As with the Best Picture category, nothing against Jeremy Renner! His performance was brilliant, and he is the soul of The Hurt Locker. Alas, we should all know never to put anything past Harvey Weinstein this time of year, and if he and Daniel Day-Lewis are going to have to eat it here on Nine, Mortensen is ready -- and safely familiar enough to voters -- to sneak in for that fifth nomination. Colin Firth alone simply isn't enough.

NOMINEES: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart; George Clooney, Up in the Air; Colin Firth, A Single Man; Morgan Freeman, Invictus; Viggo Mortensen, The Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

IN: Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds

OUT: Penelope Cruz, Nine

As always with the Supporting categories, who f'ing knows? Aside from Mo'nique and the ladies of Up in the Air, the last two spots are ultimately up for grabs between five Weinstein muses (Laurent, Cruz, Diane Kruger, Julianne Moore and Marion Cotillard) and The Messenger's Samantha Morton, an Academy semi-darling with two previous nominations of her own behind her. I'd opt for Laurent just because of Basterds' success at the SAG Awards, where she landed in the Lead-actress category while campaigning here for Supporting. Failing that, Cruz is an afterthought compared to Morton, who probably has just as much of a shot of picking up her third Oscar nod as Laurent does of earning her first. In other words: Flip a coin.

NOMINEES: Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air; Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air; Melanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds, Mo'nique, Precious; Julianne Moore, A Single Man

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

IN: Alfred Molina, An Education

OUT: Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

This one isn't as challenging as Supporting Actress, if only because A) Christoph Waltz has had the award locked up since Cannes '09, B) Harvey has no one else to campaign against him and C) the Academy will reward Molina for his officious father figure before it tacks on another one of the creeps/spooks/misanthropes for which the category has increasingly been known over the years. Unless the Academy thinks it's recognizing Tucci for Bones AND Julia & Julia, in which case: Why not just give him the call for the latter, and forget Peter Jackson's afterlife folly?

NOMINEES: Woody Harrelson, The Messenger; Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles; Alfred Molina, An Education, Christopher Plummer, The Last Station; Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

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