6 Snubs and Surprises to Expect From This Year's Oscar Nominations

After two or three months of observing the generally inert culture around the 2009 Oscar race, it's not too difficult to predict who or what will remain standing when the Academy announces its nominations Tuesday morning. Mo'Nique, Jeff Bridges, Sandra Bullock, Christoph Waltz and a group of other elite, well-known front-runners might go ahead and stamp their tickets for the Kodak Theater on March 7, but after the jump, find a few others who might wake up tomorrow to a pleasant (or not-so-pleasant) surprise.

BEST PICTURE

IN: The Blind Side

OUT: A Serious Man

Despite unflagging critical support and a not-insubstantial studio campaign on the Coens' behalves, Focus Features' drama has remained suspiciously on the bubble for too long to feel good about its chances for a nomination. Supporters who point to the expanded Best Picture category as Man's safety net should look instead to the studios jockeying for that final spot -- particularly Warner Bros., which has invested plenty in the awards momentum for The Hangover and The Blind Side, both the types of hits for which the Best Picture category was doubled in the first place. And if The Hangover is gonna sneak in anywhere, it'll probably be Original Screenplay. Nothing against A Serious Man; it's just one of those years.

NOMINEES: Avatar, An Education, The Blind Side, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Invictus, Precious, Up, Up in the Air

BEST DIRECTOR

IN: Clint Eastwood, Invictus

OUT: Lee Daniels, Precious

Most prognosticators agree that Daniels will pluck Eastwood's perennial nomination for the fifth spot, and honestly, if there's one category where I'd probably accept the conventional wisdom, this would be it. Still, this is the Academy we're talking about. It takes care of its own. Don't be shocked to see a Daniels snub.

NOMINEES: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker; James Cameron, Avatar; Clint Eastwod, Invictus; Jason Reitman, Up in the Air; Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

BEST ACTRESS

IN: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria

OUT: Helen Mirren, The Last Station

I've gone on and on here here about Apparition chief Bob Berney's Oscar-season wizardry, which has always worked best in this category and which you should expect to push Blunt into the final five. But even without Berney in Blunt's corner, the optimist in me has to presume the Academy knows better than to reward Mirren for doing little more in The Last Station than smashing dishware and bellowing as though she were directed by a decibel meter.

NOMINEES: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria, Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side; Carey Mulligan, An Education; Gabourey Sidibe, Precious; Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Pages: 1 2