Will the Wild Rumpus End Before it Even Begins?
Welcome back to Movieline Attractions, your regular guide to everything new, noteworthy and/or overly noxious at the movies. This week, Gerard Butler gets even-ish, Penn Badgley drags a minor cult classic to hell, and the Wild Things are finally in the house. But are they welcome? More burning questions and answers after the jump.
WHAT'S NEW: The consensus around Movieline HQ is that Law Abiding Citizen is an over-bloody, latently GOP wet dream with little nutritional value. Which sounds good enough for it to surprise people this weekend -- not as some No. 1 Outta Nowhere or anything (I sincerely think Couples Retreat has the legs to defend last week's crown), but early estimates under $10 million seem quite low for anything this saturated that also features Gerard Butler muttering crap like, "It's gonna be biblical!" Overture knows what it's doing with this one, and if it weren't for Paranormal Activity and The Stepfather pulling away a few million dollars here and there, this could probably sneak into the top three. As it is, Citizen will happily take fourth place with around $15.3 million.
Speaking of The Stepfather, what the hell is this? A PG-13 remake of the 1987 Terry O'Quinn thriller that had everyone in my junior high school talking for about 15 minutes before that radical Michael J. Fox/Joan Jett rock drama Light of Day came along to distract us for another 15 minutes until Mannequin opened? Cut it out, Screen Gems! America wants more Crazy White Bitch movies like your huge hit Obsessed; it does not want Penn Badgley's 19th take of trying to look scared before the director finally says "Screw it" and goes off to sniffle into a tall drink somewhere. Or... maybe it does in moderation; $10.5 million isn't the worst that could happen. But still. The Stepfather?! Why not just exhume My Demon Lover and cover all the low-rent genre angles?
Also opening: The middling, Gotham-centric short-film collection New York, I Love You, featuring the first and likely the last coexistence of Brett Ratner, Fatih Akin and Shekhar Kapur on a single project; the American/Greek culture clash Opa!; the Ice Cube/Mike Epps comedy Janky Promoters; the Sundance darling from Chile The Maid (NYC only); and, as a last resort for the entire family, Tinkerbell and the Lost Treasure (L.A. only).
THE BIG LOSER: The conventional wisdom has Where the Wild Things Are tracking for first place, probably around $30 million. Both the estimate and the estimators are high. I foresee Spike Jonze's $90 million passion project crashing into the side of a mountain with around $12 million and fifth place overall, never to be heard from again after two or three weeks of frantic searching -- kind of like what happened with another overpriced Warner Bros. pseudo-kids flick, Speed Racer, a year and a half ago. As with the Wachowskis' bomb, I'm not convinced this brand is actually influential enough to bring generations' worth of moviegoers to the theater, or that parents will blindly take their kids just because it's rated PG, or that the Wild Things look sort of cuddly, so what the hell, let's go. If anyone will save this movie it'll be hipsters, but even they're too cool to acknowledge this is anything close to a must-see. I just don't get it. And before you tell me I'm not the target audience, be prepared to tell me who is. Sincerest hats off to Jonze for following and executing his vision; here's hoping he packs plenty of water and Clif Bars for his extended journey into the Hollywood wilderness.
THE UNDERDOG: I'll have more on Black Dynamite later today, but Scott Sanders and Michael Jai White's blaxploitation parody/homage has stuck with me since finally seeing it last week -- this, after months and months of build-up following its hugely well-received Sundance premiere. I worry its audience might have thinned out a bit with festival play in bigger markets where it opens this weekend, but word-of-mouth is way up across ethnic and gender lines. I think it can break $1 million on 70 screens, but even three-quarters of that would be a pretty good weekend ahead of a wider trickle-out in the coming weeks.
FOR SHUT-INS: New DVD releases this week include the obligatory unrated cut of Sam Raimi's sterling (if economically underachieving) Drag Me to Hell, the obligatory deluxe edition of Sandra Bullock's summer surprise The Proposal, Atom Egoyan's troubling drama Adoration, the tragically underseen indie American Violet, and the Criterion edition of Mira Nair's Monsoon Wedding.

Comments
Hipsters are the only people that will turn out for WTWTA. If Warner Brothers really wanted to recoup some of the budget, they wouldn't release it in theaters, they would project it on the side of P.S.1 at a series of $250-a-head screenings.
I dunno, I think people are very, very curious about Wild Things. What it will do next weekend is anybody's guess, but I foresee a good haul for this one.
DY-NA-MITE! DY-NA-MITE!
Interesting take on Wild Things. I always thought it would be huge with teenagers and the Twilight crowd, but after viewing it I think the biggest audience that will truly embrace it and love and defend it to the ends of the earth, are interweb movie critics.
Well I saw the midnight showing of WTWTA last night (so I'm the target demo, what?!), and I have never seen the Time Square AMC filled with so many 20-something white kids. Those of us who grew up with that book are going to come out for it, tight jeans, dorky glasses and all. Nothing gets hipsters out of the house like childhood nostalgia.
I'm going to guess for the sake of guessing that Wild Things will pull in $26 million.
I think there's a lot of curiosity in the 30-45 crowd. Kids are in high school and college and the parents want to try and remember their lost childhood.
I'm gonna go cuz I like the iPhone app a lot
Hmmm ... Agree in principle with the 'Wild Things' analysis, but I still thinks $12 million sounds awfully low. I think you underestimate 'Law Abiding Citizen' as well. We'll see. It's going to be an interesting weekend indeed.
Love the "My Demon Lover" mention. Where have you gone Scott Valentine?
Looking forward to seeing The Maid this evening.
WTWTA = Muppets on steroids and HGH x H R PUFFENSTUF
You're way off on "Wild Things". I saw a trailer for it before "Land of the Lost" last summer and the audience broke into wild applause afterwards. Gen-Xers will come out in droves because they remember and love the book--and they're old enough now to bring their kids. Movieline's inexplicable distate for one of the few great American movies of the year is tainting your BO predictions.
That's fair enough, but I want to be very clear that this prediction does not necessarily reflect the opinions of my colleagues at Movieline, one of whom commented above and another of whom this week reviewed the film positively. I have my reasons, and I'm happy to be proven wrong. But it'd be my mistake, not theirs.
"I foresee Spike Jonze’s $90 million passion project crashing into the side of a mountain with around $12 million and fifth place overall, never to be heard from again after two or three weeks..."
...or not.