Which TV Shows Are Most Likely To Be Cancelled Next?
Fall Pilot Season '09 is rapidly drawing to a close, and having already sated the cancellation gods with Ashton Kutcher's sacrificial CW series, The Beautiful Life, it is only a matter of a few crummy Nielsen numbers before networks start mercy-killing their latest rating weaklings. Fortunately for us, TVbytheNumbers released its annual cancellation forecast this afternoon, based on their seasoned Renew/Cancel Index. So let's take a look at the programs, new and old, that are already falling away from the pack and risking death before May 2010.
Each season, TVbytheNumbers applies its Renew/Cancel Index to all of the prime-time scripted programs on network television to predict which are most likely to be cut from that network's line-up. The index formula is relatively simple ("Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network's Season to Date average 18-49 rating") and is listed in parentheses beside each program below. The lower the Index, the closer the show is to cancellation. While most of the cancellation predictions are expected (Have you seen Three Rivers?), others are more (I'll say it) pleasantly surprising (Parks & Recreation).
ABC
1. Hank (.68)
2. Castle (.73)
3. the forgotten (.74)
CBS
1. Three Rivers (.63)
2. Cold Case (.72)
CW
1. The Beautiful Life (.49)
2. Melrose Place (.80)
FOX
1. Til Death (.26)
2. Dollhouse (.31)
3. Brothers (.31)
NBC
1. Law & Order (.45)
2. Parks & Recreation (.68)
3. Mercy (.86)
· Don't Get Attached To Hank [TVbytheNumbers]
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Comments
Watching Dollhouse, it kind of seems as if Joss Whedon LITERALLY does not care if the show gets cancelled or doesn't. It's a little unfortunate, as so many people are always pulling for him.
No Leno mention? - Ouch.
The Fox cancellation index numbers are always crrrrazy low b/c shows like Dancing and Idol pull so heavily in the demo. Just being servicey!
If they take away my weekly dose of Nathan Fillion, I will cut a bitch.
Does anybody know how many people are watching shows in non-traditional ways: video on demand, DVR, HULU? What odds the younger viewers, whom the advertisers covet, are inclined to record shows or watch on-line, so that the rating system isn't accurate anymore.
Too bad it's not "Cougartown."
I no longer have cable or TV. I watch everything on the web via Hulu or Netflix.
What odds the younger viewers, whom the advertisers covet, are inclined to record shows or watch on-line, so that the rating system isn't accurate anymore.
Pretty good. Were they ever accurate? I never understood how the Nielsen ratings could be indicative of normal viewing habits.
I watch everything on the web via Hulu or Netflix.
Ditto. I actually watch Dollhouse (don't shun me) but tend to be doing other stuff on Fridays and much prefer to sit for 40 m and watch it on Hulu.
No Leno mention? - Ouch.
The Olds are the only ones still watching tv. Hoveround and Metamucil kid the money flowing.
their math is totally skewed. in some cases the 'season' has been going for up to 4 weeks but the show just started. case in point three Rivers. one episode has aired. not to mention that CBS has some serious reality show intake that has skewed the numbers.
now give any show say 3 weeks and look at what is pulling in less than 90% of the lead in and/or losing numbers and you've got something to work with