Movieline's Picks: Handicapping the Palme d'Or

As the Cannes Film Festival winds down amidst some of the hottest weather yet, it couldn't be a better time to look at the slate of contenders and their wholly subjective odds of winning the prestigious Palme d'Or.

A Prophet, Jacques Audiard, France. Universally loved, with glowing reviews pretty much all around, this is the film to beat. ODDS: 3 to 2.

The White Ribbon, Michael Haneke, Austria. Just about everyone who saw this was blown away, with many calling it Haneke's finest. Sure, it's a bleak story, but that's the theme this year. It's a haunting film that stays with you long after the lights come up. ODDS: 2 to 1.

Bright Star, Jane Campion, United Kingdom. The rather low-key love story between John Keats and Fanny Brawne was warmly received by critics; this could be Campion's second Palme-winning film, after 1993's The Piano. ODDS: 5 to 1.

Fish Tank, Andrea Arnold, United Kingdom. A film generally well-received, though the acting chops of newcomer Katie Jarvis seem to overshadow the film itself. Jarvis has a good shot of getting an acting nod, and the film might pick up the Grand Jury Prize. ODDS: 15 to 1.

Vincere, Marco Bellocchio, Italy. Another stunning performance, this time from Giovanna Mezzogiorno as Benito Mussolini's mistress. She's also short-listed for an acting award. The film, though, looks like a tough slog for a Palme, as the critics were generally not on board. ODDS: 15 to 1.

Looking for Eric, Ken Loach, United Kingdom. A film the Europeans simply adored, as it starred (and was produced by) the legendary soccer star Eric Cantona. This was surely the feel-good film of the festival and is short-listed to snag the Grand Jury Prize. ODDS: 20 to 1.

Broken Embraces, Pedro Almodóvar, Spain. Sigh. Cannes and Pedro Almodóvar: It's a love affair that's been going on for decades. His latest marginal film might put a strain on that love affair, but breaking old habits is hard. ODDS: 30 to 1.

The Time That Remains, Elia Suleiman, Palestine. The enormously pretentious Suleiman, whose been called the Harold Lloyd of Palestinian cinema (by people who must surely hate Lloyd), has directed an uninspiring look at daily life in Palestine. The film starts off promising, then the expressionless director shows up and kills the movie. ODDS: 45 to 1.

Antichrist, Lars von Trier, Denmark. The most controversial film of the festival, already picked up for U.S. distribution by IFC, is unlikely to take the Palme, though Gainsbourg or Dafoe (or both) could pick up an acting award. ODDS: 45 to 1.

Spring Fever, Lou Ye, China. The adultery pic is another film being talked about more for the acting than the film itself; actress Jiang Jiaqi delivers an outstanding performance and is on the short list for getting an award. A Palme for the film, though, is unlikely. ODDS: 50 to 1.

The Wild Grass, Alain Resnais, France. Everyone is talking about this film -- about how insane the last line of dialogue is. It got mainly negative buzz, but Resnais is loved in France. Can a French film win the Palme d'Or two years in row? Nope, not this one. ODDS: 55 to 1.

Thirst, Park Chan-wook, South Korea. Park Chan-wook is an incredibly divisive filmmaker, and his latest film failed to quell that reputation. Many critics praised the film's visuals, but few thought it was worth much in the end. ODDS: 60 to 1.

Map of the Sounds of Tokyo, Isabel Coixet, Spain. "Pretty to look at but largely vacuous," wrote Variety. Its late-in-the-festival screening might help it a bit, as the winners of the past few Palmes screened on the last couple days of the festival, but this one is a long, long shot. ODDS: 70 to 1.

Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino, United States. More a collection of well-directed scenes than a coherent film itself, this is one of the larger disappointments of the festival. ODDS: 80 to 1.

Enter the Void, Gaspar Noé, France. The anticipation for the film was palpable, but the end product, clocking in at over two and a half hours, is an utter disaster, though Noé's well-loved in France. ODDS: 85 to 1.

Kinatay, Brillante Mendoza, Philippines. The brutal film was brutalized by critics and generally dismissed. He didn't win last year for Service, and we don't expect a win this year, either. ODDS: 90 to 1.

In the Beginning, Xavier Giannoli, France. Another insanely long film in competition, over two and a half hours, Giannoli's tale of a con man failed to ignite much positive or negative reaction. ODDS: 95 to 1.

Face, Tsai Ming-liang, Taiwan. Sure, the film's visuals are nice, but its pretension is breathtaking -- half the audience walked out during Saturday's press screening. ODDS: 95 to 1.

Taking Woodstock, Ang Lee, United States. "What's this film doing in the festival?" was the general sentiment for critics on this incredibly lame and terribly scripted look at Woodstock. Somehow, Lee managed to make the legendary sex, drugs, and music fest look like a colossal bore. If this wins the Palme, it will mark the end of the Cannes Film Festival as we know it. ODDS: 150 to 1.

Vengeance, Johnnie To, Hong Kong. Call the gendarmes! Somehow a B-movie made its way into competition. ODDS: 275 to 1.