5 U.S. Distributors Who Could Take a Chance on Antichrist

Our mannes in Cannes loved it. Variety labeled it a "big fat art-film fart." Roger Ebert called it "the most despairing film I've ever seen." Anne Thompson praised it as "powerful filmmaking." And yet with every subsequent cheer, jeer, hiss and shouting match heard all the way from Cannes, the only thing anyone in America really wants to know about Lars von Trier's new one is: "When can I peer between my fingers to watch Antichrist?"

Good question. We were thinking the same thing today around the office. And while Thompson added that she "can't imagine this film finding a North American buyer," we have to be a little more optimistic -- even if it requires some prodigious speculation, and educated guessing to lay odds. Buyers are keeping their cards close to their vest, but if you're a betting person, you'd do well to keep five maverick houses in mind for the week (and/or month) ahead:

1. IFC Films: A probable front-runner for the title, despite the graphic sex, gore and other von Trierian oppression streaking the frames. Has its own exhibition space in New York, where the subject matter is an aid, not a detriment, to booking, and where Antichrist could conceivably run for months. Has a previously established relationship with von Trier, who appeared for an iChat Q&A when IFC Center opened his The Boss of it All in 2007. Also offers IFC on Demand service as benefit to foreign producers, though cable providers may balk at the content. Historically enjoys shopping sprees at Cannes, despite low advances that may not seal the deal with a project this conspicuous. Would have fought with ThinkFilm for this three years ago (cf. Shortbus), now has the mandate to step up and establish itself as the preeminent outlet for this fare in the U.S. Unless they hated it, of course, whose odds seem just as strong. ODDS: 5 to 1.

2. Magnolia Pictures: Also vertically integrated in New York, and wielding a similar taste for Eur-adventure as IFC. More about edge than iconoclasm, however (Let the Right One In, Julia the upcoming Humpday), and is historically less likely to put up with difficult directors and talent like von Trier, a consummate showman who famously never travels to America. Still, can appreciate the name value and notoriety, can (and would) release it unrated, and has the resources to actually keep the Antichrist's sellers at the bargaining table for a while. ODDS: 13 to 1.

3. Roadside Attractions: The dark horse in the race. Has its own weakness for tough fare, last embracing the pitch-black vagina-dentata saga Teeth out of Sundance in 2007, and taking a big chance this summer on the harrowing dolphin-slaughter doc The Cove. Still has a good three or four release slots available for the second half of 2009 (and the money to nab Antichrist for one of them, and could use the notoriety boost to compensate for some of its inconsistencies on the marketing front over the years. ODDS: 25 to 1.

4. Oscilloscope Films: Adam Yauch's up-and-coming indie shop has managed a lot with a little over the last year or so. Yet amid the Michelle Williams sleepers, the fest darlings and the doc sensations, has yet to really branch out with a major world-cinema splash like this. Has the cash on hand to impress sellers, if not quite the market share; more than any other distributor here, would require the built-in controversy to hook viewers. Distribution boss David Fenkel handled the explicit Shortbus in his ThinkFilm days, but this hardly seems to compare to that kind of sexy relationship dramedy. But library counts to these guys, which alone may make this an investment worth the hassle. ODDS: 44 to 1.

5. Lionsgate: The studio that gave us torture porn also happens to be the biggest non-MPAA signatory that could conceivably release Antichrist -- with its explicit insertion shot and other, more bloody genital messiness -- without facing down the ratings board. Which isn't really Lionsgate's business, unfortunately. Not that edginess isn't either; the 'Gate is the one taking a chance on its bleak festival buy Precious, which is easier when both Oprah Winfrey and Tyler Perry have joined the cause. Much as I'd love to see what marketing guru Tim Palen can do with this, Saw it ain't -- at least not without maybe a few minutes of cuts, we hear. Alas. Any high-rollers out there? ODDS: 100 to 1.