Welcome back to Movieline's Oscar Index, where each week we take the pulse of the awards chatter en route to Hollywood's big day. This week both Tom Hooper's Les Miserables and Kathryn Bigelow's Zero Dark Thirty surged through the ranks after debuting in their first, successful, awards screenings, though Spielberg's Lincoln still reigns supreme — but Peter Jackson's 48fps gamble The Hobbit and Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained are right around the corner, gunning for the spotlight...
1. Lincoln
2. Les Miserables
3. Zero Dark Thirty
4. Argo
5. Silver Linings Playbook
6. Life of Pi
7. Django Unchained
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
10. Anna Karenina
Outsiders: Skyfall, Moonrise Kingdom, Flight, The Dark Knight Rises, The Master
Despite strong guild and critic screening debuts for Les Miserables and Zero Dark Thirty, which absolutely sealed their positions as Best Picture top dogs, Spielberg's Lincoln is still holding onto its momentum and #1 spot in the race in the hearts and minds of pundits. Meanwhile, David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook searches for a way to keep up, while Fox Searchlight's Beasts of the Southern Wild is making its surge, trotting out Spirit Award-nominated star (and Best Actress hopeful) Quvenzhané Wallis for awards events this week.
Best Director
1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
2. Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
3. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
4. Ben Affleck (Argo)
5. Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained)
Spielberg still reigns atop the race, but this week's Zero Dark Thirty splash should boost Bigelow above the ranks of Affleck, whose popular Argo treads similar true history ground but doesn't match ZDT's weightiness or relevancy. Russell's staying in the game as well thanks to lingering Silver Linings love, but the Django curiosity factor props Tarantino up even though critics have yet to see it.
Next: Who leads the pack for Best Actor & Actress?
Best Actress
1. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
2. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
3. Quevenzane Wallis (Beasts Of The Southern Wild)
4. Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone)
5. Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
The Best Actress category is much more fluid, and will probably change quite a bit by the end of December, but right now the race appears to be a contest between Jennifer Lawrence’s portrayal of ballsy-yet-vulnerable widow Tiffany in Silver Linings Playbook and Jessica Chastain’s just plain ballsy portrayal of CIA operative Maya in Zero Dark Thirty. Oscar Index gives the edge to Lawrence because the Academy tends to go for emotional over flinty, but as Collider’s Adam Chitwood notes, as public screenings of Zero Dark Thirty begin, “don’t be surprised if you see [Chastain’s] name begin to move to the head of the pack.”
Next in line is Quvenzane Wallis, whose buzz levels have been remarkably consistent since the summer. She may be long-shot to win, but she’s practically got a lock on a nomination. Marion Cotillard, who gives a visceral, bittersweet performance in Rust and Bone, deserves a nomination (as does her co-star Matthias Schoenaerts, by the way) and Helen Mirren is the best thing about Hitchcock, but buzz is building for Naomi Watts’ performance in the tsunami tearjerker The Impossible. Awards Circuit already has her on its list (along with Emanuelle Riva, a definite dark horse from Michael Haneke’s Amour), and if the critics and audiences agree, a nomination could definitely be possible.
Best Actor
1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
2. Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
3. John Hawkes, The Sessions
4. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
5. Denzel Washington, Flight
If there’s been one constant in all of the early Oscar punditry, it’s that Daniel Day-Lewis is a lock for a nomination and the clear frontrunner to win. He tops the Best Actor lists at Indiewire, Collider, and Awards Circuit.com. From there it's Joaquin Phoenix for his feral performance in The Master, Hugh Jackman for singing his heart out in Les Misérables, John Hawkes for his remarkably ego-free performance as a polio-afflicted man looking to lose his virginity in The Sessions, and Denzel Washington as an alcoholic airlines pilot in Flight.
Expect movement in the category in the coming weeks; Hawkes, after Tuesday’s Independent Spirit Award nomination for Best Male Lead, is being buzzed about again. Washington gives a memorable performance in Flight but hasn’t been helped by lukewarm critical response to the film. The Oscars are as much about politics as they are about talent, and as Amanda Seyfried told Vanity Fair.com: “There is nothing bad to say about Hugh. He isn’t human. I bet you anything he’s got some kind of superhuman capabilities, beyond just being the kindest, gentlest soul I’ve come across.”
Next: Still anyone's game for Best Supporting Actor & Actress
Best Supporting Actor
1. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
2. Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook)
3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
4. Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
5. Javier Bardem (Skyfall)
Tommy Lee Jones is the other big acting story to come out of Steven Spielberg's Lincoln, playing a Thaddeus Stevens. Robert DeNiro has received praise for what a number of insiders have called his best performance in years in Silver Linings Playbook. Oscar-winner Philip Seymour Hoffman shared Best Actor with Phoenix at the Venice Film Festival for The Master, though that film seems to have lost some momentum of late. Javier Bardem may very well make the cut for his role as the villain Silva in Skyfall.
Best Supporting Actress
1. Sally Field (Lincoln)
2. Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables)
3. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
4. Judi Dench (Skyfall)
5. Amy Adams (The Master)
Anne Hathaway has drummed up early praise as the tragic Fantine in Les Misérables, though that film's exposure is still in its infancy and she faces strong contenders from Helen Hunt (The Sessions) and even Amy Adams (The Master). Much loved and often nominated (with one win in 1998 for a supporting role in Shakespeare in Love), Judi Dench may make the nomination cut for her latest turn as M in the mostly praised Skyfall. And Sally Field may make it a Lincoln sweep (if that is in the cards for the Spielberg-directed feature) as Mary Todd Lincoln.
Comment away with your prognostications, Movieliners! Check back each week for the latest Oscar Index.
Additional reporting from Frank DiGiacomo and Brian Brooks.
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