It's week three of the 2011-12 Oscar Index, and the latest measurements, readings and conclusions are in from Movieline's Institute for the Advanced Study of Kudos Forensics. And aside from a few startling exceptions, they don't look that different than the ones disseminated here last week. But make no mistake: Like it or not, stuff is happening! Read on for the latest developments.
[Click the graphs for full-size images.]
The Leading 10:
1. War Horse
2. The Artist
3. The Descendants
4. Moneyball
5. The Ides of March
6. J. Edgar
7. The Help
8. Midnight in Paris
9. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
10. Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Outsiders: The Tree of Life, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, The Iron Lady
So last week, I finished up Oscar Index and then walked up to my local watering hole, where I proceeded, as usual, to ruthlessly drown the floating heads and other nightmarish visions that invade my consciousness in the feature's immediate aftermath. And one of my friends, a pretty serious cinephile, says, "Yeah, I saw Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close."
"Say whaaaa?", I said.
"I saw Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," this friend repeated, explaining having attended a test screening here in New York over the preceding weekend. Pretty much everything this friend proceeded to tell me wound up corroborating another report from the same screening: Specifically, that Stephen Daldry's adaptation of the Jonathan Safran Foer bestseller about a newly fatherless boy's post-9/11 experience is really sad and affecting and looooong and contains Oscar-caliber work from Sandra Bullock and Max von Sydow.
"Von Sydow?", I said. "Say whaaaa?"
More on the actors in a bit, but the bottom line is that with a few judicious trims, early word from actual viewers and our first glimpse at the film's trailer suggests that Extremely Loud will supply the spirited emo boost Paramount is looking for in this year's Oscar race. Which only affirms the suspicions of many Oscar-watchers who've long presumed the Scott Rudin production was the snake in the shimmering gold awards-season grass. Some sniffed at the trailer in particular as persuasive but inconclusive evidence of Oscar-worthiness, but come on. One look at the new War Horse trailer proves that if studio marketing drips like Oscar bait and smells like Oscar bait, then it's Oscar bait. And with the Rudin/Daldry/Tom Hanks trinity at its core (to say nothing of Bullock and von Sydow and young X-factor Thomas Horn), you won't likely go broke betting on it to at least make the Best Picture cut.
Nevertheless, don't think that anything yet comes close to matching War Horse's profile. Surprisingly or not (mostly not), the nearest may now be The Artist, Michel Hazanavicius's silent, audience-pleasing tribute to vintage Hollywood. As foreseen last week, master awards-pizzaiolo Harvey Weinstein is crafting one of his finest pies to date, with zesty punditry from Sasha Stone and Nathaniel Rogers among others boosting the Oscar flavor. Moreover, check out Harvey's toppings at the moment, including the mogul's own exhorting of Ides of March -- which is shaping up for a middling critical and commercial response this weekend -- as the film to beat in this year's race. Genius! Nothing like foisting high expectations on a movie that won't deliver them. That's not to say that Harvey didn't like it! But it's a delicious insight into what he thinks his real competition is, at least in this early stage.
Moneyball, meanwhile, could use that kind of seasoning: Last week's reported Academy goodwill has deteriorated into guys like Scott Feinberg presenting this kind of statistic as encouraging news: "Moneyball, which opened at #2 at the box-office last weekend with nearly $20 million in sales, earned 43% less this Friday than it did last Friday, only a 3% worse drop-off than the one experienced by The Social Network last year." Uh, what? Then there are the doubts as to whether or not the Academy will really go for a baseball movie, or the proposal that it could advance on the strength of guild-awards recognition, and it all just seems kind of... bleak. Unlike its subject, Moneyball will need more than hard numbers to get by the competition this fall. It needs longevity, visibility and some considerable luck. Maybe it can start with Harvey Weinstein not suggesting it will go all the way.
The Leading 5:
1. Steven Spielberg, War Horse
2. Alexander Payne, The Descendants
3. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
4. Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
5. Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Outsiders: David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; George Clooney, The Ides of March; Bennett Miller, Moneyball; Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris; Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Tate Taylor, The Help; David Cronenberg, A Dangerous Method
On the basis of their films' Index boosts alone, Hazanavicius and Daldry were the week's big directing beneficiaries, while Clooney is like, "Harvey, for Christ's sake, stop it, already." Relax, George! You've still got The Descendants, for which Payne remains a consistent darling in this category and for which you are a front runner for acting. Don't get greedy!
The Leading 5:
1. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
2. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
3. Viola Davis, The Help
4. Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
5. Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Outsiders: Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn; Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Emma Stone, The Help; Felicity Jones, Like Crazy; Michelle Yeoh, The Lady
Did anything actually happen in this race this week? There was some talk of the year's Actress crop and blah blah blah Keira Overrated Knightley, but did the trajectory of Meryl Streep -- or anyone else for that matter -- shift appreciably while I wasn't paying attention? Did the trailer for The Lady in fact move Yeoh any closer to legitimate contention? I'm really asking! In any case, I can only presume that this (and perhaps the rest of the Index) will look much different next Wednesday after My Week With Marilyn and Martha Marcy May Marlene finally premiere at the New York Film Festival, either corking or uncorking the word of mouth both Williams and Olsen need to get off the sidelines and into the game.
The Leading 5:
1. George Clooney, The Descendants
2. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
4. Michael Fassbender, Shame
5. Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Outsiders: Jean Dujardin, The Artist; Tom Hanks, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March; Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method; Woody Harrelson, Rampart; Michael Shannon, Take Shelter; Damian Bechir, A Better Life
Hanks saw a bump thanks to the Extremely Loud surge, though even a star of his potency remains hard-pressed at this early stage to crack the Clooney/DiCaprio lock and the highly fortified festival triumvirate of Pitt, Oldman and Dujardin. Fassbender, meanwhile, still can't find any of the people who salivated so many gallons over his Shame performance a month ago at Venice (and soon afterward at Toronto) to step forward for him now -- though it bears noting that Fox Searchlight has the racy film on its calendar for Dec. 2, and this weekend's NYFF debut should help reinvigorate some of the buzz that's worn off in recent weeks.
The Leading 5:
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help
2. Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
3. Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
4. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
5. Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Outsiders: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter; Jessica Chastain, The Help; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Judi Dench, J. Edgar; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Mia Wasikowska, Albert Nobbs; Emily Watson, War Horse; Marion Cotillard, Midnight in Paris
It was just a matter of time before Bullock was officially inducted into this anemic category, made only slightly controversial by the lively, ongoing chatter about McCarthy's viability as an Oscar contender. A solid limited opening last weekend for Take Shelter probably won't be enough to keep Chastain in the overall mix long enough to outlast the likes of the well-reinforced Woodley and the surging Artist co-star Bejo. And while I keep hearing murmurs about Cotillard creeping in, I'm with Anne Thompson: "[A]s popular as Midnight in Paris is, it won't get any acting nods. None of the performances are the right sort, none stand out in the right way. Cotillard's is simply too small."
The Leading 5:
1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2. Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3. Albert Brooks, Drive
4. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
5. Nick Nolte, Warrior
Outsiders: Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady; Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method; John C. Reilly, Carnage; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Moneyball; Armie Hammer, J. Edgar; Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris
What a difference a week makes! Christopher Plummer's mortal lock on Supporting Actor seems threatened now by von Sydow, though we still have a long way to go before Incredibly Close drops and some serious ground to gain for the 82-year-old Swedish legend. Thankfully he's playing catch-up with an 81-year-old Canadian in Plummer, so it's really just a matter of whose walker has the horsepower to really giddy-up through the home stretch. I still think it's Plummer's to lose, but the squad at Kudos Forensics scientifically confirms it is indeed too soon to tell.
More fun with also-rans: I sincerely love Mark Harris's run through the Supporting Actor category, featuring recent Verge designee Corey Stoll (who earns favor from Kristopher Tapley as well) and, most intriguingly, Andy Serkis for Rise of the Planet of the Apes:
[A]s anyone who has watched the movie knows, you never actually see Serkis -- his performance is a seamless melding of the actor's own skills with those of a vast throng of motion-capture and performance-capture technicians and digital-effects creators. The result is compelling enough to have inspired calls for a Best Supporting Actor nomination. And thus, the first question voters will have to ask themselves is, If Serkis is never on-screen, can you honestly refer to what he does as acting? [...]
Here's my answer: I don't know. And to the extent that Academy members may feel the same bewilderment, that's probably bad news for Serkis. Given his contribution to movies, he almost certainly deserves a nomination for something, but I'm not convinced it's for Best Supporting Actor. To explain my resistance as something other than Luddite technophobia, let me point to a few other contenders in the category (which is still wide open).
It'll never happen, but still! I highly recommend checking the rest out at Grantland. And maybe -- just maybe -- picking up some white-out just in case you already notched a Plummer win in ink. Or you can always feel free to borrow mine.