After a momentary holiday lull, it’s back on! Or as Calvin Candie says in Django Unchained. "We got us a fight going on that's a good bit of fun." Academy voters were given one extra day to mull over their Oscar nomination ballots, thanks to a voting deadline extension necessitated by complaints and concerns over the Academy’s first-ever electronic voting system. They could use that 24 hours to digest the Producers Guild Award nominations, which were announced Wednesday, a day early.
From here, the awards season proceeds at 48 frames per second, bringing the Oscar race into sharp focus. The Director’s Guild of America nominations for Best Director will be announced Jan. 8, with Oscar nominations announced on the 10th,in advance of the Golden Globes, which will be handed out on the 13th. The PGA ceremony will be held on the 26th, followed by the SAG awards the following night. Feb. 2 brings the DGAs, one of the most reliable Oscar indicators, followed by the Independent Spirit Awards (and the Razzies) on the 23rd and the Oscars on the 24th.
This is the earliest Oscar voting in history, Variety’s Jon Weisman noted, and he feared for the “dark horse” candidates as voters race to catch up to the big ticket films such as Django Unchained and Les Miserables that were released at the end of the year. “We'll never quantify the impact… on the coming Academy Award nominations, but I'm thinking negative,” he writes.
The Best Picture race was most impacted this week. So, let’s consult the Gold Linings Playbook to see which films benefited from the PGA bump.
Since 1990, the winner of the PGA’s Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures -winner was denied on Oscar night only seven times, most recently in 2006, when The Departed took Best Picture honors instead of the PGA’s choice, Little Miss Sunshine. Its 10-film field included most of the expected nominees from A (Argo) to Z (Zero Dark Thirty). Django Unchained’s n-word - nomination - only accelerated its momentum, while Beasts of the Southern Wild, a non-union production, deemed ineligible for SAG consideration, and also denied Golden Globe nominations, saw its own Oscar cred strengthened. (Apparently, Hollywood Foreign Press Association members would rather party with Nicole Kidman than Quvenzhane Wallis) biggest surprise was the nomination of Skyfall, which may be poised to do for Bond films what Beauty and the Beast did for animated films; be the first to be nominated for a Best Picture Oscar.
But Skyfall shouldn’t press its Oscar-night tux just yet. Last year, Bridesmaids, The Ides of March and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo did not parlay their PGA nominations into Best Picture bids. The Master, Flight, and The Dark Knight Rises, each snubbed by the PGA, have their advocates, and should not be counted out.
1. Lincoln
2. Zero Dark Thirty
3. Argo
4. Silver Linings Playbook
5. Django Unchained
6. Les Misérables
7. Life of Pi
8. Beasts of the Southern Wild
9. Moonrise Kingdom
10. Skyfall
Ones to watch: The Dark Knight Rises, Flight, The Master
The heat is still on Zero Dark Thirty, now officially the target of a Senate Intelligence Committee investigation over alleged contact between the filmmakers and CIA officials, but Kathryn Bigelow's nomination is inevitable. Quentin Tarantino is riding taller in the saddle with Django Unchained’s PGA nomination, but it’s a tight field and Life of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook are safer, far less controversial films. Still, it helps to have Samuel L. Jackson in your corner. The PGA snub of The Master sees Paul Thomas Anderson’s Oscar hopes further recede.
1. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
2. Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
3. Ben Affleck (Argo)
4. Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
5. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Ones to watch: Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained). Michael Haneke (Amour), Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master)
Nothing new to see here. Daniel Day-Lewis remains the frontrunner, and a recently released photo of the actor in the actual Lincoln bedroom only bolsters his historical inevitability. Les Misérables has been getting its share of knocks of late for, among other things, its use of close-ups and the cast’s musical chops, but Hugh Jackman has not lost his Oscar buzz.
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
2. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
3. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
4. Denzel Washington (Flight)
5. John Hawkes (The Sessions)
Ones to watch: Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
Another closely-watched race with Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence sure bets for nominations. The PGA nomination for Beasts of the Southern Wild could bolster the chances for the film’s breakout star, Quvenzhane Wallis, who would be the youngest Oscar nominee ever.
1. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
2. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
3. Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
4. Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
5.Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone)
One to watch: Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
In this crowded and distinguished field, will Skyfall’s PGA nomination help propel SAG nominee Javier Bardem back into nomination contention? Whom would he replace? Likewise Christoph Waltz, who carries much of Django Unchained.
1. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
2. Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook)
3. Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
4. Alan Arkin (Argo)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Ones to watch: Javier Bardem (Skyfall), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Maybe it’s the Downton fever talking, but Maggie Smith merits reconsideration as an Oscar contender for the crowd-pleasing The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, as does Judi Dench, who stands to benefit most from a PGA bump for Skyfall due to the emotional arc of her character, a franchise stalwart since 1995. But the newly released video of Anne Hathaway’s showstopping performance of “I Dreamed a Dream” confirms her frontrunner status. And I am telling you, there’s no way she’s going home without an Oscar.
1. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
2. Sally Field (Lincoln)
3. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
4. Judi Dench (Skyfall)
5. Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel)
Ones to watch: Amy Adams (The Master), Nicole Kidman (The Paperboy)
READ MORE OSCAR INDEX:
Oscar Index: Critics Have 'Amour' For 'Zero Dark Thirty' & 'The Master,' But Who's 'Les Miserables' This Christmas?
Oscar Index: Everything's 'Dark' And 'Miserables,' Until We Get 'Unchained'
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