Welcome back to the Gold Linings Playbook, otherwise known as the Oscar Index, in which we take the pulse of the pundits handicapping this year’s emerging Oscar class!
Oscar handicapping began in earnest this week with The New York Film Critics Circle’s selection of Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty as Best Picture, adding further speculation that the hunt for Bin Laden drama may steal some of Ben Affleck’s Argo’s thunder. In the past decade, four of the NYFCC’s Best Picture winners have gone on to win the Academy Award: The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King; No Country for Old Men; The Hurt Locker, and The Artist.
But never mind Argo; Lincoln better watch its back. On Wednesday, the National Board of Review also named Zero Dark Thirty Best Picture, Bigelow Best Director, and Jessica Chastain Best Actress.
Also getting some newfound awards season cred courtesy of the NYFCC are Matthew McConaughey, named Best Supporting Actor for Magic Mike and Bernie, and Rachel Weisz, a below the radar choice for Best Actress for Deep Blue Sea, assuring that that DVD screener will be retrieved from the pile. Other NYFCC winners in the main categories are in line with pundit expectations: Bigelow for Best Director; Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln) for Best Actor, and Sally Field (Lincoln) for Best Supporting Actress.
Independent Spirit Awards nominations, which were announced last week, have been harbingers for Academy Award consideration, but only twice — Platoon and last year’s The Artist — has the Best Feature winner gone on to win Hollywood’s ultimate prize. Still, Best Feature nods have given Beasts of the Southern Wild, Moonrise Kingdom and especially Silver Linings Playbook a decided Oscar boost.
There is still time to mount Don Quixote-like quests for statuette consideration (Linda Cardinelli’s self-financed Best Actress campaign on behalf of Return) or for critics to float their own long-shot candidates they deem to be at least worthy of consideration (End of Watch, suggests Roger Ebert).
But in this early going, it’s more fun for seasoned Oscar-watchers — literally those watching at home — to think about which nominees would make for a more entertaining Academy Awards broadcast, which is in dire need of a reboot. Luckily, Lincoln is a shoe-in for major award consideration, so we have host Seth McFarlane’s Ford Theatre jokes to look forward to. Here’s hoping the Academy once again allows Best Song contenders to perform, just so we can see the bombastic production number sure to accompany Adele’s “Skyfall." The prospect of multi-nominations for Argo increases the possibility that an Oscar will be accepted with an “Argo f*** yourself” flourish. And right now, there’s no denying that we like the possibility of another emotional Sally Field acceptance speech that would top her “you like me” outburst 27 years ago.
Until then, how did the week’s developments impact the ever emerging Oscar field?
Best Picture
One can devise a potent drinking game out of every time click-savvy Huffington Post queries in a headline whether a certain film can be considered to be a “front-runner.” They have so far posed the question on behalf of Argo, Lincoln, Les Miserables, and Zero Dark Thirty. Into the fray gallops Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained, which had its hotly-anticipated Director’s Guild Association screening last weekend. Judging by the mostly rapturous Twitter response from acolytes, it went pretty good. But is it Oscar-worthy? Michael Haneke’s Amour swept the European film awards over the weekend, while The Master was annointed top film of 2012 by Sight & Sound. Just sayin’.
But Zero Dark Thirty is making a direct assault on Hollywood’s top prize with its NYFCC and NBR wins this week for Best Picture and Best Director. Meanwhile, the bulk of this year’s buzziest Best Picture wannabes were fall and winter releases, which does not bode well for Moonrise Kingdom (a May release) and Beasts of the Southern Wild (June), but their DVD releases could help refresh memories.
1. Zero Dark Thirty
2. Lincoln
3. Les Miserables
4. Silver Linings Playbook
5. Life of Pi
6. Argo
7. Beasts of the Southern Wild
8. Moonrise Kingdom
9. The Sessions
10. Skyfall
Ones to watch: Django Unchained, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, The Impossible, The Master
“Standing ovation for Tarantino at DGA,” tweeted Anne Thompson from the first screening of Django Unchained. But it’s a strong field of contenders, in which four slots are by most accounts assured for Affleck, Bigelow, Hooper, and Spielberg. Bigelow’s NYFCC and NBR wins this week put her seriously in the hunt. That leaves one slot open for once-certain nominee Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master), or Wes Anderson (Moonrise Kingdom), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), and Behn Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild).
1. Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty)
2. Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
3. Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
4. Ben Affleck (Argo)
5. David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Ones to watch: Paul Thomas Anderson (The Master), Michael Haneke (Amour), Peter Jackson (The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey), Quentin Tarantno (Django Unchained)
Next: Best Actor & Best Actress
By seemingly all accounts, Daniel Day-Lewis’ nomination is a lock and the Best Actor race his to lose. But as is his Lincoln, so is the rest of the likely Best Actor field “clothed in immense power.” According to The Los Angeles Times blog The Envelope’s “Buzzmeter,” Independent Spirit Award-nominee John Hawkes (The Sessions) and Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) are “Best Bets” to be nominated. Bradley Cooper, another Spirit award-nominee, could ride Silver Lining love into the slot that was earmarked for Denzel Washington (Flight), especially after being named Best Actor Wednesday by the NPR.
1. Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
2. Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
3. Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
4. Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)
5. John Hawkes, (The Sessions)
Ones to watch: Richard Gere (Arbitrage), Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock), Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson), Jean Louis Trintingnant (Amour), Denzel Washington (Flight)
The Best Actress field is nowhere near as inevitable. Critics are besotted with Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) but she will have formidable competition in Jessica Chastain, also a previous Oscar-nominee, who has distinguished herself in supporting roles and is poised to finally reap the rewards. She carries Zero Dark Thirty raved The Daily Beast’s Marlow Stern, “a Herculean task, but she pulls it off.” Quvenzane Wallis, a non-professional who was six when she starred in Beasts of the Southern Wild (she’s now 9) is fresh off her Independent Spirit Award nomination and has the added irresistible marketing hook of possibly becoming the youngest Oscar-nominee ever, while the venerable Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), who will turn 86 on Oscar night, could become the oldest.
Critics continue to push Marion Cotillard for Rust & Bone. Oscar-winner Helen Mirren, in the more widely seen Hitchcock, might have an edge for a nomination, but a tsunami-like buzz is building for Naomi Watts (The Impossible).The tepid response to Anna Karenina seems to have stalled Keira Knightley’s momentum. But Rachel Weisz, with her surprise NYFCC nomination, must be added to the conversation. Writing in Variety last week, Ralph Fiennes praised, “The beauty of Rachel Weisz's performance…is in its interior life. Every nuance and shift of emotion is profoundly felt.”
1. Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
2. Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
3. Quvenzane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
4. Marion Cotillard (Rust & Bone)
5. Helen Mirren (Hitchcock)
Ones to watch: Keira Knightley (Anna Karenina), Laura Linney (Hyde Park on Hudson), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Naomi Watts (The Impossible), Rachel Weisz (Deep Blue Sea)
Next: Best Supporting Actor & Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Here's another strong field, with the edge being given to Tommy Lee Jones’ historical figure in Lincoln. Alan Arkin (Argo), Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook) and Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) are almost-certain nominees. While Leonardo DiCaprio’s name had been floated prior to Django Unchained’s DGA screening, tweets from the event raved more about Oscar-winner Christoph Waltz. But his NBR win on Wednesday puts his name squarely in the mix, threatening Javier Bardem’s chances (along with Dame Judi Dench) to become the first actor ever to receive a nomination for a Bond film.
1. Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
2. Robert DeNiro (Silver Linings Playbook)
3. Alan Arkin, (Argo)
4. Phillip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
5. Leonardo DiCaprio (Django Unchained)
Ones to watch: Javier Bardem, (Skyfall), John Goodman (Flight), Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike), Eddie Redmayne (Les Miserables)
Anne Hathaway’s certain return to the Oscar ceremony will be as a nominee (for Les Miserables) and not as a host, which will probably be less nerve-wracking for her (and us). Tom O’Neil of Gold Derby says her win is “in the bag.” Not so fast; Providing formidable competition are most likely to be Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), the NYFCC winner, and Helen Hunt (The Sessions). Three Brits are being most strongly considered by pundits for the remaining slot: Dame Judi Dench (Skyfall), Helena Bonham Carter (Les Miserables) and Maggie Smith, riding her considerable “Downton Abbey” love into a nomination for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.
1. Sally Field (Lincoln)
2. Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables)
3. Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
4. Amy Adams (The Master)
5. Judi Dench (Skyfall)
Ones to watch: Samantha Barks (Les Miserables), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
What say you, Movieliners? Sound off with your awards prognostications below.
PREVIOUSLY IN OSCAR INDEX:
Oscar Index: Everything's 'Dark' And 'Miserables,' Until We Get 'Unchained'
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