Oscar-ed out for the week? Don't be! Movieline's Institute for the Advanced Study of Kudos Forensics is here to remind both the casual and obsessive fan alike that the Academy Awards are, first and foremost about movies. With that in mind, let's have a look at where this season's Oscar Index crop landed after one of the most turbulent patches in recent memory.
[Click the graphs for full-size images.]
The Leading 10:
1. The Descendants
2. War Horse
3. The Artist
4. The Help
5. Midnight in Paris
6. Moneyball
7. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
8. Hugo
9. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
10. J. Edgar
Outsiders: The Tree of Life; My Week With Marilyn; The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn; The Ides of March; Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Margin Call; Shame
What a week, with Hugo, J. Edgar and War Horse all finding their ways to audiences for the first time. Well, sort of the first time: The West Coast pundit class that opted to wait and see about Hugo for themselves before deigning to so much as raise their eyebrows for its fond East Coast first look is officially over the moon after two very well-received special screenings (including one at the Academy) last weekend. No longer a work-in-progress ("99.9%-finished," in Pete Hammond's words) Martin Scorsese's 3-D tribute to movies and movie-love set off a relative mushroom cloud of praise, with the likes of Sasha Stone writing "Martin Scorsese's Hugo is a lyrical dream, a film that pays homage to what is so transformative about cinema," and Steve Pond calling it "the most magical moviegoing experience I've had in a very long time." It couldn't have hurt that the guild/media event on Saturday afternoon featured a Q&A attended by Scorsese and awards-magnet collaborators like editor Thelma Schoonmaker, composer Howard Shore, DP Bob Richardson and production designer Dante Ferretti. (And moderated by Paul Thomas Anderson, because why not?) Pond noted that while that night's Academy screening that night wasn't quite the barnburner enjoyed by Moneyball and The Help, at least 100 voting members took in the earlier show, so it might even out.
Not quite, said Hammond, who nevertheless remained optimistic about Hugo's chances:
The attendance figure at the Academy screening is middling, nowhere near the packed houses for other recent Oscar contenders -- Midnight In Paris, Moneyball, The Ides Of March to name three that nearly filled the place. Despite Scorsese's name, part of the problem might be that it is currently perceived as more of a 3-D kids film by Academy members, who generally don't lavish Oscar attention on that genre. Paramounties are positioning it as something with equal or even greater adult appeal and I would agree, if you can work them to a winter's passion to see it the way it should be seen. It's much more ambitious than the average studio family holiday offering. At the very least it's definitely got HUGE film freak appeal (count me as one of those).
Scorsese working at the absolute top of his game may be key to getting those older butts in seats. From my perspective it is a masterpiece of personal filmmaking along the lines of Fellini's Amarcord, Truffaut's Day For Night and Tornatore's Cinema Paradiso.
I don't disagree, but the bottom line for Hugo is the craft categories. Taken together, Stone's smart breakdown of the "1 percent" Best Picture threshold and Gold Derby's analysis of Hugo's technical strengths -- not to mention Scorsese's A-list accomplices noted above -- forecast a perfect storm of influence within the Academy's individual branches. In other words: Round up enough consummate pros at their peaks -- in the service of Scorsese's most personal film -- and you've got a phenomenon on your hands. And it's this year's prestigious Royal Film Performance, a bit of news whose timing I wouldn't exactly attribute to serendipity.
The biggest hurdle is the box office, which could in fact be a problem despite the 3-D boost; neither The Muppets nor Arthur Christmas are going to cede much ground in the five-day Thanksgiving frame. (Not to be outdone, The Artist and My Week With Marilyn -- two more beautifully made homages to moviemaking -- open in limited release the same weekend.) But with Paramount clearly knowing the triumph it has, as well as the movie-love motif so prevalent in this year's race, has any other film this year accrued so much potential -- so much sheer momentum -- so fast?
On the other hand, has any film fallen farther off the pace quicker than J. Edgar? A week ago, mere whispers of disapproval were all that separated it from the season's established frontrunners. Today, it's rocking a pathetic 44 percent on Rotten Tomatoes and has all the political goodwill of a thong with Brett Ratner's likeness ironed on the front. OK, maybe it's a little better than that: A small core of critical heavyweights are behind it, and no one should underestimate the Eastwood factor that so regularly wins Academy hearts and minds (and, more often than not, votes). But come on. Apart from the sporadic raves for Leonardo DiCaprio and Armie Hammer (which we'll get to in a bit), this one is over. For Warner Bros., suddenly it's on to Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close -- an interesting, almost shocking institutional shift that boosts the latter film's stakes immensely. No pressure, Warners!
Meanwhile, War Horse has finally peeked out of the stable for actual viewers. A smattering of far-flung previews last week yielded generally positive, even glowing reactions, though it's up to you how much weight you choose to give an AICN review ("War Horse is what movies are all about -- transporting the audience into a world that will never exist again. As for myself, I loved every moment") and a steady trickle of Twitter approbation, or even the anonymous hater quoted by Jeffrey Wells: "I don't know what's happened, but the man who made Saving Private Ryan didn't make this." It's thin in general, but hey! Every clue helps.
The Leading 5:
1. Alexander Payne, The Descendants
2. Steven Spielberg, War Horse
3. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
4. David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
5. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Outsiders: Martin Scorsese, Hugo; Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; George Clooney, The Ides of March; Bennett Miller, Moneyball; Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
As usual, what goes for Picture goes, too, for Director, though I'm not quite ready to downgrade Fincher for Scorsese's sake. At the moment, the bottom two slots are cutthroat musical chairs for them and Allen; my gut tells me Dragon Tattoo will surge post-Hugo, nudging Woody out for good with only Daldry left to battle through January. Your mileage may vary; if so, tell me about it!
The Leading 5:
1. Viola Davis, The Help
2. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
3. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
4. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
5. Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Outsiders: Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Felicity Jones, Like Crazy; Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
Best Picture may have the most stirring drama of the week, but Actress may boast the season's real intrigue. To wit, what the hell is Harvey Weinstein -- who already moved My Week With Marilyn to compete with The Artist on Thanksgiving weekend -- doing pushing Iron Lady all the way to the last possible minute in December? He either has the performance of the year from Streep (and a good film around it), for whom he's seeking the last word, or he is all-in with Michelle Williams. The latter would hardly be his worst bet, and certainly not his least likely: Judging by the date shifts and Williams's continuing festival support, the pro-Marilyn bias seems increasingly obvious every week.
Meanwhile, Close's profile slips again thanks to what feels like outright sabotage by distributor Roadside Attractions; a hideous new Albert Nobbs poster joins the film's grueling trailer in a marketing campaign apparently determined to scare anybody off of actually wanting to see or support a movie that's still limping from the beating it took on its festival rounds in September. Theron, though, remains in good shape for Young Adult, with Kristopher Tapley insisting in this week's Actress round-up over at In Contention: "Charlize Theron is a monster (no pun intended) in Jason Reitman's Young Adult, giving, without question, one of the year's best performances. She's in."
Melancholia's opening week gave cause to add Dunst back to the mix, though... yeah. Don't get your hopes up, noble as they are. Amirite, Jeffrey Wells?
The Leading 5:
1. George Clooney, The Descendants
2. Jean Dujardin, The Artist
3. Michael Fassbender, Shame
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
5. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Outsiders: Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Ralph Fiennes, Coriolanus; Michael Shannon, Take Shelter; Woody Harrelson, Rampart; Demian Bichir, A Better Life; Andy Serkis, Rise of the Planet of the Apes; Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
So! What are we going to do about DiCaprio? How do we reconcile the stench of J. Edgar with the actor-producer's unrequited Oscar hankerings, particularly in a year where two other superstar contemporaries are squaring off against celebrated upstarts in films that people actually like? To say nothing of Oldman, coiled and hungry out in the tall December grass, or the likes of Fiennes (equally hungry and even fiercer in the fast-coming Coriolanus), Harrelson (who, depending on whom you ask, may or may not be a serious contender), Bichir (currently one of the hardest-working, most-liked actors on the Oscar hunt) or even Andy Serkis (a true artist for whom Fox is reviving the mocap-or-not campaign strategy it pioneered with a sympathetic Zoe Saldana two years ago).
I guess we rally. I think? Kristopher Tapley and Anne Thompson took to their podcast to agree that DiCaprio still has more than just a foothold in the race, with Tapley adding in his J. Edgar review, "I think it could very well carry him to that elusive first Oscar win." Movie City News's Gurus o' Gold have DiCaprio ranked third in their latest poll -- which came out after the film's Best Picture chances were essentially clubbed to death last weekend. "[I]t's now obvious the best actor race will come down to Clooney and DiCaprio," wrote Gregory Ellwood. "He'll easily be nominated. He might very well win," noted Sasha Stone. OK, then.
Look: I know he's Leo. I know he's powerful. And I'm just here to read what comes back from the lab. But for an organization already reeling this year from an Oscars' legitimacy issue, what's the upside of adding an unpopular film to the mix just because they're supposed to? Why would DiCaprio even want that? Let's wait and see with the opening box-office and at least allow for the more reasonable, honorable outcome.
The Leading 5:
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help
2. Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
3. [tie] Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
3. [tie] Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
5. Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Outsiders: Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Jessica Chastain, The Help; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter; Jessica Chastain, The Tree of Life; Judy Greer, The Descendants; Judi Dench, J. Edgar; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Mia Wasikowska, Albert Nobbs; Emily Watson, War Horse; Marion Cotillard, Midnight in Paris
I can't really detect more than the most subtle of movements here -- things like Woodley finding continued support in list after list, Chastain being essentially interchangeable as a contender in three separate roles of varying profiles and stature (though we'll see about campaign power), Redgrave continuing to dazzle in Coriolanus... I'm not as sure of Spencer's supremacy as I used to be, but ultimately I'm also not sure who has the edge to pull even and/or overtake her. Does anyone even want Best Supporting Actress at this point? Put it on eBay or something.
The Leading 5:
1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2. Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
4. Albert Brooks, Drive
5. Armie Hammer J. Edgar
Outsiders: Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Nick Nolte, Warrior; Patton Oswalt, Young Adult; Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris; Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady; Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method; John C. Reilly, Carnage; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Moneyball; Tom Hanks, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
All that noise about DiCaprio? Ditto for Hammer. Well, maybe not so much: Some are at least persuaded to believe he's not a one-hit (or do the Winklevii count as two hits?) wonder for The Social Network, and it is interesting to see him doing such heavy promotional lifting for a film that was supposed to be a showcase for DiCaprio, Naomi Watts and Judi Dench. But despite such claims that "his 'Oscar' scene is not his finest moment (over the top and out of character)," this is arguably the most impact we've seen in Supporting Actor since... OK, since last week. But still! Fleeting at it may be, Hammer time is again upon us.
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