Back during the cold war, American intelligence was so starved for reliable information on the inner workings of the Soviet Union that they would analyze minutiae like which portraits had been removed or who was sitting where during parade processions. Well, now that the shock of The King's Speech surprise win over The Social Network at the Producers Guild Awards has slightly abated, we can engage in a little Oscar Kremlinology ourselves. Is it curtains for Zuckerberg and company? And does Black Swan stand a ghost of a chance?
More than anything else, The King's Speech win is going to cause some furious re-evaluation. But which way? One school of thought might say that people who think that The King's Speech is too slight to merit a Best Picture Oscar will now lock their vote down for The Social Network, rather than toss it to an also-ran.
Or! Another school of thought would posit that people who assumed The Social Network was a sure thing now see that it's very vulnerable and will shift their votes accordingly. Maybe this means that The King's Speech ends up on top. Or maybe it means that The King's Speech and The Social Network end up splitting the votes and a dark horse like Black Swan or Inception sneaks in for the win.
I do think it's odd that Inception, a movie that made money hand over fist and was one of the most talked-about movies of the year, hasn't figured more prominently in Oscar talk. Could this be its golden shot? Is the beginning of the The King's Speech's triumphant comeback? Or is this just the false lull before The Social Network takes the taco?
Man, I don't even know. This is just the filmic equivalent of trying to figure out why Khrushchev didn't wear a hat outside on Tuesday, and your guess could be as good as mine. Let me know what you think!