- Er, make that "will be..." Maybe. Movieline's Center for the Advanced Study of Kudos Forensics has been working overtime to break down the last week of contention for Academy Award nominations, finding the most intense activity among actors on bubbles. The researchers' findings follow; report your own in the comments...
[Click the graphs for larger images]
The Leading 10:
1. The Social Network
2. The King's Speech
3. The Fighter
4. Inception
5. Black Swan
6. True Grit
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. Toy Story 3
9. The Town
10. 127 Hours
Outsiders: Blue Valentine; Winter's Bone; Rabbit Hole; Shutter Island
Notes: So with maybe one exception -- Blue Valentine sneaking in to overtake 127 Hours -- this is how your Best Picture Class of '11 appears to be shaping up. Screw the Golden Globe/Critics Choice Awards pseudo-bellwethers and the more category-specific implications of the BAFTA nominations: The top half of these nominees are virtually guaranteed thanks to the historically precise recognition of the American Cinema Editors Eddie nominations, and as Sasha Stone notes, The Social Network is on a literally unprecedented tear at the front of the pack:
I have measured these important groups of early voting bodies: National Board of Review, Los Angeles Film Critics, New York Film Critics, National Society of Film Critics, Southeastern Film Critics, Critics Choice, Golden Globe - I am not even counting Chicago, Dallas Fort Worth, Boston, Florida and other groups that have been around a while. What I discovered is this: only one film has won them all: The Social Network. [...] The only Best Picture winner to win with virtually no awards for Best Picture prior to the Oscars would be Crash.
Now would be the time for those few remaining King's Speech loyalists to get to work, right? Wrong: While Dave Karger still has Speech as his favorite into the nominations, even he acknowledges the film's precipitous fade: "My No. 1 Best Picture pick is hanging by a thread." Other pundits, meanwhile, marveled at both the finesse (Scott Rudin and Aaron Sorkin softening Mark Zuckerberg's "unlikable" image during their Golden Globes speeches) and brute force (Sony has reportedly spent an also-unprecedented $5 million to date on TSN's Oscar campaign) of the Social Network juggernaut. Even Harvey Weinstein seemed resigned, maybe even adaptive to the changing Oscar tide, telling the NYT: "[A]s we're learning from the Academy, Hurt Locker is suited for Academy taste. Inglorious Basterds - you would never 10 years ago say, that's going to get eight Academy nominations. So I think today that stereotype of the classic movie is gone." There's always the chance Harvey's just urging the Academy to prove him wrong, but judging by the staggering TSN showing, I'll take him at face value for now.
The Leading 5:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Christopher Nolan, Inception
3. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
4. David O. Russell, The Fighter
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Outsiders: Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit; Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right; Danny Boyle, 127 Hours; Mike Leigh, Another Year
Notes: OK, now here is where I would (and, er, did) probably point out a related clue from the BAFTA nominations: The Coens are probably screwed. We all pretty much knew this after the DGA nominations were announced, but tack on the voter overlap between US and UK Academies and... well, yeah. And again, True Grit didn't make the cut (ha!) with the ACE voters, either -- and these guys are their own editors. Tough luck, fellas; at least Scott Feinberg's got your back.
Oh, and a bonus: How classic is David Fincher, casually praising Black Swan last week between bites of french fries and arguments that "more money should be spent on movies, and less on marketing." And then there was this, from the same event: "I have a fueled Citation on the runway at Teterboro. As soon as the first snowflake hits me in the eye, I'm leaving. I have a big day tomorrow." Dude, you have a big day for next month and a freaking half. Keep that Citation fueled.
The Leading 5:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
4. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
5. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Outsiders: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Hilary Swank, Conviction; Tilda Swinton, I Am Love
Notes: In all reality, unless Team Bening plans to shove Rex Reed's tired, specious Norbit argument down Academy throats in the weeks ahead, this will be the last week anyone will have anything remotely interesting to say about this category. After all, even as Portman remains a prohibitive favorite, check out the ever-ascendant Hailee Steinfeld -- rising out of the Best Supporting Actress pack into Lead despite Scott Rudin's entreaties. That's where BAFTA wanted her, that's where Karger and other experts foresee her, and honestly, she's got more momentum in this category at the moment than anyone not named Natalie Portman.
The only thing is: Who would she bump off? I'd say Williams is in by virtue of her campaign presence and Weinstein's wiles; having the experience of Kate Winslet landing in Lead Actress two years ago with The Reader, he might have even anticipated this and compensated accordingly. Team Kidman? Not so much. Where the hell has Kidman been, anyway? Oh. A baby. Right. I have a hunch they'll have plenty of time together in the next month.
The Leading 5:
1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
3. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
4. Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine
5. James Franco, 127 Hours
Outsiders: Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Javier Bardem, Biutiful; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version; Robert Duvall, Get Low
Notes: Here's another one with a surefire winner at the front and some roiling uncertainly below. I'd say if the actors branch goes with Williams, then they're going with Gosling; it takes two to tango, right? Or rather, it takes one to spastically flail and bellow and overact, and it takes another one to magnanimously withstand that crap. That's two, I guess. In other fateful pairings, combine 127 Hours' slide from prominence with Franco's high-stakes Oscar-hosting duties, and he's easily surmountable by any of the Academy-beloved bubble-dwellers like Bridges, Giamatti or Duvall. I'm leaving Bardem in the mix out of little more than faith in the kudos gods to deliver a Tuesday-morning miracle, but... yeah. I'm not sure they're listening.
The Leading 5:
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
3. Amy Adams, The Fighter
4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Outsiders: Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole; Sissy Spacek, Get Low
Notes: Team Jacki update: Come on, Academy! Don't you want another month of fun videos and disclosures like this one from the campaign trail? Hasn't Melissa Leo's previously documented stroppiness and circus-peanut complexion at the Globes (not to mention omission from BAFTA consideration) proven enough of a compulsion to defy expectations? I mean, nominate Leo, I guess, but come on!
Anyway, the last spot in Supporting Actress probably comes down to Jacki Weaver, Mila Kunis or Barbara Hershey. There's a real chance that pro-Black Swan voters will split the latter actresses' votes, pushing Jacki through the middle and into contention. There's an equally real chance that Steinfeld will be plucked into Lead Actress, leaving Jacki and one of the Swannettes to take the fourth and fifth spots. Maybe that would be best for everyone? All I know for sure is that the Fighter contingent is shaping up to be the craziest, most mercurial Oscar-nominee posse since Brando, Caan, Pacino and Duvall drew consideration for The Godfather. They'll be fun to watch, or at least they will be until Leo or O. Russell or Bale hungrily devour an usher at the nominee luncheon.
The Leading 5:
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
4. Jeremy Renner, The Town
5. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Outsiders: Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps; John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Ed Harris, The Way Back
Notes: Does Douglas's improving heath and resurgent profile mean anything at all, nomination-wise? Doubtful, but Academy voters will be Academy voters, so don't rule anything out. Except winning, that is.