Another busy cycle of hype, hurdles and more Oscar madness has come and gone, leading to an all-new edition of Moveline's 2010 Oscar Index. This week, the Coen Brothers throw their weathered cowboy hats in the ring, The Social Network builds full steam toward Friday's opening, and a handful of would-bes slide into the morass of also-rans. Read on, and let's break it down.
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The Leading 10:
1. The Social Network
2. The King's Speech
3. Black Swan
4. 127 Hours
5. True Grit
6. The Kids Are All Right
7. Inception
8. The Fighter
9. Toy Story 3
10. The Town
Outsiders: Another Year; Secretariat; Made in Dagenham; Somewhere; Love and Other Drugs; Shutter Island
Notes: At this point it's probably not unfair to say The Social Network and The King's Speech are running close to neck-and-neck in terms of Best Picture hype -- though only David Fincher's has driven critics to the kind of blurb-spouting (and blurb-thwacking) passion that fueled the early runs of Best Picture winners like Crash and The Hurt Locker. And those didn't have an international conglomerate's Oscar war chest behind it. That said, sometimes it's better just to have a high, flat hum of approbation, a la King's Speech, about which you can say a lot of things with the exception that it's peaked.
True Grit's new teaser, meanwhile, was a little miracle of economy and pulchritude, a Very Serious taste of Oscar-caliber Coen Brothers with virtually every credit preceded with "Academy Award winner" this or "Academy Award nominee" that (and "Introducing Hailee Steinfeld" might as well read "Eventual Academy Award nominee," or something), portending great things in the month to come. It traded fortunes with The Fighter, which could really use a good teaser right now to deflect the reality that, oh yeah, Hollywood kind of hates David O. Russell. And does Paramount have the initiative or interest to campaign this beyond the performance categories, especially with True Grit so obviously pulling the studio's parade float?
Speaking of Paramount, it does supposedly have an inkling to nudge its Scorsese/DiCaprio hit Shutter Island back into Academy view. Over at Disney, meanwhile, Secretariat is receiving a bolder push as Not Your Father's Feel-Good Horse-Racing Biopic, with willful Diane Lane, eccentric John Malkovich and one hell of a fast thoroughbred seeming to offer something for everybody. Critics are embargoed but quietly impressed; the bigger the hit it is, the lockier it is for inclusion.
The Leading 5:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
3. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
4. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
5. Christopher Nolan, Inception
Outsiders: Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit; David O. Russell, The Fighter; Mike Leigh, Another Year; Ben Affleck, The Town; Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right
Notes: The Coens this week crashed what's shaping up to be the most competitive major category, both reflective of and somewhat fluid against the conventional wisdom of Best Picture. Fincher and Hooper's profiles rose with their films, and Aronofsky slipped in the post-Toronto hangover (and you can pretty much forget about Ben Affleck at the moment). But you could still make an argument for every filmmaker here, which you can't necessarily do for all of their films -- with the exception of Fincher, I suppose, whose topicality (if not his brusqueness) will keep him high in contention through February.
The Leading 5:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs
4. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
5. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham
Outsiders: Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Diane Lane, Secretariat; Naomi Watts, Fair Game
Notes: Not a lot to say here: The Rabbit Hole buzz has quieted way down after Toronto, allowing Sally Hawkins to lead the '60s-era women's-lib drama Made in Dagenhem's slow-building charge into the Oscar derby. Word is also picking up that Julianne Moore is accruing favor for a nomination if not necessarily a win (front-running co-star Annette Being crept up proportionately); Jennifer Lawrence or Michelle Williams can wait. Lawrence will be a coin toss until the morning the nominations are announced, but not so much Williams, whom Harvey Weinstein had better start pushing in earnest soon if he plans an awards-season return on his Sundance investment. Hathaway rose a bit if only for anticipation's sake.
The Leading 5:
1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
3. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
4. James Franco, 127 Hours
5. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Outsiders: Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version; Ryan Reynolds, Buried
Notes: The good news for Javier Bardem's extraordinary performance is that Mexico will officially submit Biutiful as its entry in the Best Foreign-Language Film category. The bad news is that it looks increasingly like Colin Firth's "year," with the most substantial backlash coming from observers who want to make it a two-horse race between the "act-ier" Firth and the more natural Eisenberg -- who is flat-out great divining another character who, like Firth's King George VI, is almost constitutionally incapable of grappling with his vast, sudden power. Like pretty much everyone else affiliated with True Grit, Bridges saw his stock soar after the release of the film's teaser.
The Leading 5:
1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
2. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
3. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
4. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham
5. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Outsiders: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Rebecca Hall, The Town; Elle Fanning, Somewhere; Juliette Lewis, Conviction
Notes: As noted, Focus insists it will go Best Actress or bust with Julianne Moore, with Elle Fanning supporting the studio's Supporting Actress ambitions at the moment. Good luck with that: Hailee Steinfeld is shaping up as the neophyte to beat for True Grit. And she will be beat in all likelihood -- just by Carter, Leo or the ascendant Richardson, all overdue for Academy recognition and tightening their grips on nominations even as their films face long, bloody battles for awards-season recognition.
The Leading 5:
1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
2. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
3. Christian Bale, The Fighter
4. Sam Rockwell, Conviction
5. Justin Timberlake, The Social Network
Outsiders: Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Armie Hammer, The Social Network; John Malkovich, Secretariat; Richard Jenkins, Eat Pray Love; Vincent Cassel, Black Swan
Notes: Inaugural favorite Rockwell suffered the wrath of the perfect King's Speech/Social Network storm, the primary focus of which was whether or not Network could in fact net three Supporting Actor nominations. The Godfather did it, and Garfield, Timberlake and Hammer are each as indispensable as that film's Pacino/Caan/Duvall trio 40 years ago, roiling and shifting like planets in some Mark Zuckerberg orbit. (Bonus points for Hammer in a dual role.) We lost Richard Jenkins, alas, with Malkovich creeping into the picture for Secretariat. Loud suits and Oscar droughts will do that for a guy.