Oscarology has never quite been what anyone would call an exact science. Hype is often too volatile a substance to mix or study accurately, and emotions run far too high among critics, fans and the Academy voters themselves to get a stable read on films' chances during awards season. But the gang at Movieline Labs have developed the most objective* means yet of measuring Oscar hopefuls.
Welcome to the inaugural Movieline Oscar Index, a weekly report of how prestige movies and the talent around them are faring in the top six Academy Awards categories. We'll be here with our lab coats and goggles through the bitter end, carefully reading the codes, compounds and mutations on the slow march toward Feb. 27, 2011, developing new formulas for this year's ranking favorites.
With Toronto behind us, this week seemed like as good as any to get started; we'll chart the progress of this week's projected nominees as their profiles rise, fall, and/or are overtaken around the zeitgeist. As always, your own data are more than welcome in Movieline's mix. You know where to leave it. (And click on the graphs below for larger versions.)
*: Compiled from reading/hearing general word-of-mouth, personal hunches and a mild favoritism complex.
The Leading 10:
1. Black Swan
2. The Social Network
3. The King's Speech
4. 127 Hours
5. The Fighter
6. The Kids Are All Right
7. Inception
8. Toy Story 3
9. True Grit
10. The Town
Outsiders: Another Year, The Tourist, Made in Dagenham, Somewhere, Secretariat Love and Other Drugs
Notes: Despite the determined batsh*ttery of Black Swan, conventional wisdom among most Oscar trackers has at least the top eight films above pretty much locks for Best Picture consideration. Among them, only The Fighter and True Grit have yet to emerge onscreen -- leaving some (but not many) reservations for the roundly beloved Another Year to sneak into one of those spots.
Social Network has this weekend's big New York Film Festival premiere to officially kick off its campaign, which is fine, but recent history shows that Best Picture must go through Toronto. (Giving this year's festival Audience Award-winner The King's Speech all that much more momentum in the MOI's first week.) That also brings me to The Town, which has been the story of Oscar ascendancy since its rapturous TIFF reception and last weekend's critical and commercial success. Doubters may be right only insofar as Ben Affleck's film could peak too soon, but better to break out early than not break out at all. (Never Let Me Go, I'm looking at you.)
The Leading 5:
1. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
2. David Fincher, The Social Network
3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
4. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
5. Christopher Nolan, Inception
Outsiders: David O. Russell, The Fighter; Ben Affleck, The Town; Mike Leigh, Another Year; Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right; Lee Unkrich, Toy Story 3
Notes: It's another auteur-heavy year, with Warner Bros. and Chris Nolan looking to avenge his '08 snub for Dark Knight and Fox Searchlight committed to returning Danny Boyle to the running after his victory the same year. Hooper is the big question mark for now: Will the all-talent/no-name filmmaker get edged out in classic Driving Miss Daisy style, leaving Russell or Leigh to sneak in? Will Affleck get the honorary "Welcome back" nod? Did Kathryn Bigelow's victory last year open the door for Lisa Cholodenko to contend not only for a nomination but a win? (Probably not, though she looks dangerous in the Original Screenplay category.)
The Leading 5:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Outsiders: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right ; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Diane Lane, Secretariat; Naomi Watts, Fair Game
Notes: You know how I feel about Portman's performance -- which doesn't mean anything when going up against sentimental favorite (and legitimately strong contender) Annette Bening. Focus's lobbing of Julianne Moore into the Best Actress race is just an early-fall gambit to keep The Kids Are All Right in the Oscar soup; she'll be on the Supporting Actress tip in no time. Nicole Kidman had raves out of Toronto but is a previous winner doing above-average work in a year when Oscar 0-fers and newcomers offer career-defining performances, so expect her to fall off as the months pass and she and Rabbit Hole succumb to late-December heavy-hitters like Michelle Williams and Lesley Manville.
The Leading 5:
1. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
2. Robert Duvall, Get Low
3. James Franco, 127 Hours
4. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
5. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Outsiders: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network; Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Ryan Reynolds, Buried; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version
Notes: Along with Supporting Actress, probably the toughest category to crunch at the moment. Bardem's Best Actor prize at Cannes means nothing to the Academy, but the long shadow of his towering performance should stretch well past the nominations phase. Duvall is roundly favored to earn a valedictory nod for Get Low, another Toronto darling -- from last year -- that might dig up some traction in other acting categories as well toward the end of the year. Harvey Weinstein thinks, for the second straight year, that he will buy Colin Firth an Oscar; this time, with the actor portraying the speech-impeded King of England (the Academy loves disabilities!), Harvey may pull it out.
Watch out for Ryan Reynolds, though, especially if Buried is the hit Lionsgate is working toward. It's truly strong, unique work under wildly extreme conditions; we've seen worse snubs, for sure, and Eisenberg's easily in front of him if The Social Network takes off Oct. 1, but the more I talk to people on the circuit the more I believe Hollywood wants to recognize the guy. This may be their best chance before he disappears into Green Lantern franchise oblivion.
The Leading 5:
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
3. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
5. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Outsiders: Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Rebecca Hall, The Town; Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham; Elle Fanning, Somewhere; Juliette Lewis, Conviction
Notes: Jacki Weaver should have run away with this category a long time ago, but modest returns and virtually zero buzz for Animal Kingdom leave her on the bubble. Now it's reportedly Melissa Leo's to lose -- except no one's seen The Fighter -- so watch for threats from the beloved Carter and Moore as critics and voters actually get a look at the film. Hershey could find some momentum as well if Black Swan hums along in the top three and young Coen Brothers discovery Steinfeld underwhelms in True Grit. So... yeah. Watch out for flying hype.
The Leading 5:
1. Sam Rockwell, Conviction
2. Christian Bale, The Fighter
3. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
5. Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Outsiders:
Justin Timberlake, The Social Network; Richard Jenkins, Eat Pray Love; Vincent Cassel, Black Swan; Jeremy Renner, The Town; John Malkovich, Secretariat;
Notes: Can you believe that Sam Rockwell has never been nominated for an Oscar? It seems like heresy -- and finally, now that he's supposed to be superb in an otherwise lukewarm biopic, it's almost more heretical that said biopic will earn him his first nod. I mean... Moon? Confessions of a Dangerous Mind? The Assassination of Jesse James? Anyway, his only real competition at the moment is Christian Bale -- again, of that heretofore unseen The Fighter, but who delivers yet another shapeshifting physical performance as Mark Wahlberg's brother and trainer. Timberlake (Justin Timberlake!) is right on the edge as well; he could swap out with either Ruffalo or even Garfield, and if Social Network's profile swallows Conviction's the way it looks like it could, he might even advance to top-three for the Oscarcast glam factor alone.
What do you say?