Now that the dust has settled around those Emmy nominations, it's time for Movieline to begin digging into each category to lay down odds for the nominees. Everyone can agree that these year's selections feel fresh and new, but in the Lead Actor in a Comedy category, will tradition reign?
Notable Snubs: Joel McHale, Community, Johnny Galecki, The Big Bang Theory, Charlie Sheen, Two and a Half Men
Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock
For Him: Baldwin's won this award the last two times, and sheer inertia is often the biggest factor to winning a Lead Actor in a Comedy Emmy (the list of recent one-time winners is awfully slim). There are some threats to him in the category, but he's beaten both of them before, so why shouldn't he again?
Against Him: I don't agree with the 30 Rock doom-and-gloomers, but I will say that Baldwin wasn't handed a moment (or storyline) this year that screamed "Emmy clip." Prior wins came via his tour-de-force therapy session with Tracy Morgan or by acting opposite himself. This year, his biggest victory was merely holding his own against Julianne Moore's Boston accent.
Odds: 2-1
Steve Carell - The Office
For Him: Steve Carell has never won in this category, and now that he's announced next season will be his last, it may have reminded voters how much they appreciate his work (and how little time left they have to reward him for it).
Against Him: Both he and the show did better work last season, and Alec Baldwin is still nominated.
Odds: 3-1
Jim Parsons - The Big Bang Theory
For Him: Parsons is a sentimental favorite who some thought should have won last year. Out of all the sitcoms nominated in this category, his is the biggest, and you would think he has momentum going for him...
Against Him: ...except that in one of the Emmys' biggest snubs, The Big Bang Theory again failed to get a Best Comedy Series nod. Might there be less of a following for him in Emmy circles than people think?
Odds: 6-1
Matthew Morrison - Glee
For Him: Glee is a phenomenon this year, and its huge nomination haul could float all boats. Don't discount the fact that Morrison has to sing in almost every episode -- actors appreciate that extra edge.
Against Him: His character is (let's face it) the blandest on a show of big personalities. Voters could hold two things against him: the terrible fake-pregnancy storyline that dominated his early-season work (not his fault) and his painfully white rapping (all his fault).
Odds: 10-1
Tony Shalhoub - Monk
For Him: He's won three times in this category before, and been nominated for all eight seasons of Monk. All eight, people. This is the last time the Emmys can indulge their Shalhoub fetish, as this year brought us Monk's obsessive-compulsive swan song.
Against Him: He hasn't won since 2006 -- to the Emmys, Baldwin may be their new Shalhoub. Still, you can never count the man out. Hell, he could get nominated for this role next year out of sheer habit.
Odds: 20-1
Larry David - Curb Your Enthusiasm
For Him: Well-liked by his industry peers, and the only pay-cable star to land in this category. Voters are clearly partial to HBO here -- even Jemaine Clement scored a nomination last year for Flight of the Conchords.
Against Him: Then again, David himself hasn't been nominated since 2006. It's nice for him to simply make the cut, though who wouldn't want to hear his acceptance speech?
Odds: 40-1