Though the Oscars have expanded the Best Picture field to ten nominees this year, there are still going to be some contenders that end up as also-rans. Sure, we can expect a couple of mortal locks like Avatar, Up in the Air, Precious, and The Hurt Locker to gobble up several of the slots, but which former frontrunners are in danger of missing the shortlist entirely? Here are five Best Picture candidates whose chances are bruised, beaten, or by no means assured:
Nine
Tomatometer: 37%
The Odds Against It: Widely perceived to be an Oscar front-runner just a few months ago, Nine has dealt with setback after setback since: an unexpected delay, a glut of poor reviews, and a weak opening weekend (from a distributor that can't afford to throw good money after bad).
In Its Favor: It is filled with Oscar-showered talent, from director Rob Marshall (Chicago) to its veteran cast. The buzz surrounding the performances of Penelope Cruz and Marion Cotillard could help keep the picture in contention a little while longer, yet the Weinstein Co. has boggled the issue of whether Cotillard's supporting performance should be pushed for Lead Actress.
Final Prognosis: Fading fast.
The Lovely Bones
Tomatometer: 41%
The Odds Against It: Director Peter Jackson's CG-soaked take on Alice Sebold's popular novel hasn't gone over well with critics, and the film is lagging so badly in limited release that Paramount is preparing a last-ditch save by marketing the film to the Twilight audience of young women.
In Its Favor: Should the film somehow catch fire with that demographic, it could prompt a reevaluation, but for now, its chances are as dead as its protagonist.
Final Prognosis: Will be peering at the Oscars from a color-saturated heaven far, far away.
Invictus
Tomatometer: 76%
The Odds Against It: Clint Eastwood's apartheid drama may have a famous sporting event at its center, but it hasn't won many passionate fans and it's not exactly setting the box office on fire. Though Eastwood's recent films often seemed to have a spot reserved for them in the Best Picture category, Flags of Our Fathers underwhelmed, and Gran Torino couldn't manage a single Oscar nomination.
In Its Favor: Still, Eastwood is one of the Academy's favorite auteurs, and Morgan Freeman is sure to be nominated for Best Actor. Matt Damon's supporting SAG nomination could reveal broader support for the film than is immediately apparent. The increase of the Best Picture nominees to ten will help Invictus more than most other candidates.
Final Prognosis: Need to run out the clock to stay in the game.
The Last Station
Tomatometer: 68%
The Odds Against It: Every year, a routine period drama is thrown in the Oscar mix and treated like a potential frontrunner, but The Last Station lacks an A-level director or many ardent partisans. Sure, there's a certain amount of Oscar-friendly historical pedigree to this story about Tolstoy's last days, but the preponderance of British-accented actors playing Russian icons is hard to take.
In Its Favor: Helen Mirren has a shot at a nomination in the weak Best Actress category, ensuring that the film will at least be seen. No one really loved Frost/Nixon last year, but that still got nominated, and there were only five slots.
Final Prognosis: Will need to start drawing buzz when it opens wider next month.
An Education
Tomatometer: 94%
The Odds Against It: On its face, An Education is the least vulnerable film on this list -- it can boast a sheaf of good reviews and a sure-to-be-nominated performance from Carey Mulligan. However, the film's been somewhat lost since its release, supplanted by movies that people are really, really passionate about. (By contrast, An Education peaked at Sundance last year and, upon its actual release, had to contend with too many pundits that compared its central underage seduction to the also-in-the-news Roman Polanski.) Can Lone Scherfig's film get a second wind, or is it danger of being one of those movies that people assume is fine, yet never really lobby for?
In Its Favor: Unlike a film like Avatar, An Education plays just as well on TV, which is where plenty of screener-blessed Academy members will be watching it. Also, let's face it: Hollywood is filled with insecure Anglophiles. An Education's top tier British cast is one Dame Judi Dench shy of total catnip.
Final Prognosis: Safe, but could use a jolt.