Welcome back to Oscar Index, your infallible weekly dispatch from Movieline's Institute for the Advanced Study of Kudos Forensics. This installment welcomes a few new faces to the mix -- and not a minute too soon, either, as the race attains a strange, stagnant calm before the storm. Let's investigate!
[Click the graphs for full-size images.]
The Leading 10:
1. The Descendants
2. War Horse
3. The Artist
4. The Help
5. Midnight in Paris
6. Moneyball
7. J. Edgar
8. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
9. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
10. The Ides of March
Outsiders: My Week With Marilyn; The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn; Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Shame; Margin Call; The Tree of Life; Hugo
OK, so make that a strange, sort of stagnant calm. One week after War Horse fell off the world-beating hype pace it had sustained for a month, jockey Steven Spielberg busted out his awards-narrative riding crop with the help of the The New York Times. The paper, which couldn't secure an interview with the filmmaker/producer (he was reportedly busy shooting Lincoln, cough cough plug plug), nevertheless bolstered "Spielberg the Artist"'s double (or triple) shot of Oscar juice:
In 1987 Mr. Spielberg won his first Oscar, an honorary Irving G. Thalberg award. After some ferocious campaigns, three more Academy Awards would follow, for Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan. Those helped fill the mantel but have left him short of the recognition given Walt Disney, with his 26 statuettes, or even Billy Wilder, with 7, and Francis Ford Coppola, with 6.
Lately Mr. Spielberg has been working as if he intends to close the gap. By most measures he appears busier than at any time in his professional life. If Lincoln is released by DreamWorks and Walt Disney Studios in late 2012, he will have directed three major films in the span of a year.
Interview or not, the implication is clear: Spielberg wants it. It's been a long time since Private Ryan, and between War Horse and The Adventures of Tintin -- the former of which has ostensible "heartland strategy" screenings lined up this week, and the latter of which makes it to the States next week as AFI Fest's closing-night film -- it's time to reclaim his rightful Oscar-night supremacy.
It's a nice story. It's just not... charming. Sniff as some will at The Artist or The Descendants, both films and their principals know that earnest goodwill generally outweighs the last word in the awards economy. Thus The Descendants' ongoing offensive, led this week by George Clooney and Alexander Payne themselves in a special screening in Los Angeles. The punditocracy responded in kind, with Gregory Ellwood noting that "[a] few major critics groups wins could put it far out of reach from its competitors" and Jeffrey Wells citing a "filmmaker friend" who has early faith that it'll "go all the way." The latest Gurus o' Gold poll, meanwhile, has Descendants and Artist stacked fairly comfortably in first and second place.
But look out for Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, which, along with Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close and even the recent British Independent Film Award nominee Shame, is also surging gradually among the cognoscenti. And perhaps my favorite bit of awards-season forecasting this week belongs to Grantland's Mark Harris, who went to bat for the sublime Margin Call as the darkest of horses to have a berth in the race:
Can the Oscar race accommodate an accident -- a movie that shakes things up just because it's unexpectedly excellent? One film is about to test that question: the coolheaded, remarkably well-executed financial thriller Margin Call. When the movie played at Sundance last January, it got just-okay buzz -- typical for a festival that historically overhypes the quirky-dysfunctional-romantic-comedic but undersells movies that are dark, urbane (or just urban), and tough-minded. It was acquired by Lionsgate and Roadside Attractions, which -- aside from Winter's Bone last year -- has not been a major awards player.
Nine months later, Margin Call opened just as Occupy Wall Street was igniting; suddenly, it looks like the most on-point American movie of the season. This one caught the Oscar blogosphere napping, and the wake-up call came not only in the form of higher-than-expected grosses but in raves from the likes of the New Yorker ("One of the strongest American films of the year"), the New York Times ("An extraordinary feat of filmmaking" with direction that is "downright awe-inspiring"), and the Los Angeles Times ("Margin Call will open your eyes"). They're not wrong: Writer-director J.C. Chandor has made the year's most impressive American debut. [...] (And SAG voters, who tend to use their "Best Ensemble" award as a lame substitute for a Best Picture prize, should see this movie as a reminder of how valuable real ensemble acting can be.)
See, that's the trick: Hit the actors -- hard. Screeners! Parties! Pizzas! The required 5 percent of first-place votes may seem unthinkable at the moment, but there is indeed a compelling case to be made for Margin Call as the most socially relevant, most thought-provoking and, sure, most entertaining picture of the year. If there were any justice, it would be perceived as this year's whip-smart counterpart to The Social Network. Of course, there is no justice in awards season, but still: Why not Margin Call? Think about it.
The Leading 5:
1. Alexander Payne, The Descendants
2. Steven Spielberg, War Horse
3. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
4. David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
5. Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Outsiders: Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar; Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; George Clooney, The Ides of March; Bennett Miller, Moneyball; Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Haters notwithstanding, we see the Spielberg/War Horse correction affecting the Director race as well as Picture -- not unlike Dragon Tattoo's Fincher bump. But Woody Allen's ascension reflects a surprising hardiness among observers here, there and everywhere (OK, mostly everywhere) who seem to believe that his late-career triumph can overcome his utter disregard for the Academy Awards as a whole. Fair enough, but can't we give that slot to Bennett Miller or Nicolas Winding Refn or something? OK, never mind.
The Leading 5:
1. Viola Davis, The Help
2. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
3. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
4. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
5. Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Outsiders: Charlize Theron, Young Adult; Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Felicity Jones, Like Crazy; Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method
What a weird category: While most Oscar-watchers seem to agree on Davis, Streep, Williams and Close as evident locks for nominations, the middle of the pack -- particularly who could and/or should fill in the No. 5 spot -- is totally fluid and up for grabs. Mara earned a boost thanks to the general support for Dragon Tattoo, but as long as Olsen and Jones's indie darlings keep performing among art house viewers and critics, and as long as Oscar alums Theron and Swinton maintain their steady, don't-peak-too-early momentum, it seems irrational to nudge either of them out of the early running.
That said, a few developments did jolt the front-runners -- none more so than Williams's dynamic, detailed explanation of how and why she came to inhabit Marilyn Monroe. This is some of the most savory awards bait I've seen in a while, dropped squarely on the plates of critics in NYC and L.A and the National Board of Review as they start firming up their minds ahead of this month's all-important year-end votes. Meanwhile, it looks like the best that someone like Close can hope for at this point is some Tokyo Film Festival laurels and a Best Original Song contingency plan. It wasn't supposed to go this way, was it? Speaking of which, Sony Classics still insists on running Keira Knightley in Lead Actress, so you might as well stick a fork in her. That's over.
The Leading 5:
1. George Clooney, The Descendants
2. Jean Dujardin, The Artist
3. Michael Fassbender, Shame
4. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Outsiders: Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Michael Shannon, Take Shelter; Woody Harrelson, Rampart; Damian Bechir, A Better Life; Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March
We've already established Clooney's steadfastness at the front of the pack; conjuring another word about him would feel roughly equivalent to passing a kidney stone the size of his Italian villa. But how about The Fass! Awards recognition across the pond (shared in part by Oldman) was buttressed by continued, passionate conversation about Shame's NC-17, led by Sasha Stone:
[W]hy does the NC-17 rating affect the film's chances? For some reason, Oscar voters shy away from controversy. Maybe this is changing a bit. Maybe they will come to their senses and nominate Fassbender anyway -- who, by the way, gave the performance of the year in Shame. [...] I'm going to bet, all things considered, that he somehow makes it in.
Failing that, I'd keep an eye out for Harrelson, who was quietly on the Rampart promotional circuit this week in NYC -- basically playing the same critics-group circuit as Williams, Theron and Olsen in Best Actress -- and will likely be fighting to the Oscar-nomination death with Fassbender, Oldman and the fading Michael Shannon. It's a long shot -- a very long shot -- but it's also early. Just you wait.
The Leading 5:
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help
2. Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
3. Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
4. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
5. Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Outsiders: Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter; Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Judy Greer, The Descendants; Jessica Chastain, The Help; Judi Dench, J. Edgar; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Mia Wasikowska, Albert Nobbs; Emily Watson, War Horse; Marion Cotillard, Midnight in Paris
I'll cop to a bit of laziness in this category; McTeer and Greer are pretty easily interchangeable with Chastain and McCarthy at this point (though I lean Team McCarthy simply because she's got a following out there, and the types of Bridesmaids events we've seen and can anticipate seem bound to stir a bigger character-actor constituency than Greer can probably depend on, especially while battling Woodley in the same category), and no one's legitimately challenging Spencer at this point anyway. Except... maybe... Redgrave. She's pretty amazing in Coriolanus, delivering precisely the kind of Oscar-tailored role -- hell, she delivers the entire climax -- that shores up the blistering lead work by Ralph Fiennes. It's pretty much perfect, and if you happen to see Viola Davis running away with Best Actress, don't be surprised to see the actors' branch shift its weight from Spencer and The Help toward the deserving 74-year-old legend.
The Leading 5:
1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2. Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
4. Albert Brooks, Drive
5. Nick Nolte, Warrior
Outsiders: Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Patton Oswalt, Young Adult; Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris; Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady; Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method; John C. Reilly, Carnage; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Moneyball; Armie Hammer, J. Edgar; Tom Hanks, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Hey, look! Competition! Per Jeffrey Wells, who attended a special Young Adult screening Tuesday in L.A.: "The good news is that I wasn't the only one who admired the hell out of it, and that Patton Oswalt, portraying a blunt-spoken, half-crippled fat guy who befriends Charlize Theron's neurotic writer character, is now a Best Supporting Actor contender... definitely." I hope and pray, if only for the promise of nominee-luncheon livetweets. (e.g. "Plummer and von Sydow slept though group portrait #VotePatton," "Nolte? More like Noshow #VotePatton" etc. etc.) Or... not. Anyway.
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