Welcome to week six of Oscar Index, your regular reading of buzz, hype, speculation and crippling myopia in and around the 2011-12 awards beat. This installment brings some rather momentous determinations from the wonks at Movieline's Institute for the Advanced Study of Kudos Forensics -- let's get right to them!
[Click the graphs for full-size images.]
The Leading 10:
1. The Descendants
2. The Artist
3. War Horse
4. The Help
5. Midnight in Paris
6. Moneyball
7. J. Edgar
8. The Ides of March
9. My Week With Marilyn
10. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Outsiders: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Tree of Life, Hugo, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Gasp! After a month of sight-unseen supremacy, Steven Spielberg's War Horse has officially eased into trot mode behind the muscular fall-festival favorites The Descendants and The Artist. At least that's the sense of the punditocracy everywhere from Gold Derby -- where Alexander Payne's dramedy inched ahead of the equine Spielberggernaut -- to THR and In Contention, where Michel Hazanavicius's silent triumph has either come even with or surpassed War Horse in the Picture race.
It's not all good for the new front-runners; after all, no one wants to peak too soon, and hearing guys like Tom O'Neil and Scott Feinberg debate the mechanics of a Descendants/Artist showdown (and for the likes of longtime Horse-whipper Jeff Wells to spotlight it) suggests War Horse and DreamWorks' happy retreat (for now) into the Oscar shadows while the other heavyweights get all gladiatorial on each other for the awards gods. But when you hear about stuff like the Descendants' dynamite SAG/BAFTA screening last week, or witness its early awards-profile boost with the recent Gotham Awards nominations -- both coming nearly a month before the next wave of acclaim rolls in around its Nov. 18 release date -- Fox Searchlight's strategy looks fairly unassailable at this point. Add to that the advancement of the New York Film Critics Circle's awards announcement to Nov. 28 -- the first in the nation -- and you've got an early tone-setter tailor-made for Payne, George Clooney and Co. to enter December as the film to beat.
The week's other big momentum was seen with The Help (which one Academy member reportedly told Steve Pond would not only be nominated for Best Picture, but would win) and Midnight in Paris (which earned the highest scores -- alongside The Descendants and The Artist, natch -- in David Poland's first Oscar chart of the season). Both remain virtual sure things in the nomination phase, but the continuing chatter about their growing Academy constituencies is enough to make even a horse blush. Finally! Here's to the challengers!
Also, earlier this week I heard from an awards-campaign consultant who seemed fairly certain that Hugo has what it takes to garner the requisite 5 percent of first-place votes for a Best Picture nomination. Its (alleged) secret weapon: The branch stewardship of much-respected Martin Scorsese collaborators like cinematographer Robert Richardson, editor Thelma Schoonmaker, costume designer Sandy Powell and others. "All you really need are 300 votes," this consultant explained. Well, that and what many are predicting to be a blockbuster holiday turnout. Instinct tells me that Dragon Tattoo and Extremely Loud in particular will keep sharper edges in the Academy proper, but as noted previously, this isn't about my instinct. So! For what it's worth, etc., etc.
The Leading 5:
1. Alexander Payne, The Descendants
2. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
3. Steven Spielberg, War Horse
4. Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
5. David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Outsiders: Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; George Clooney, The Ides of March; Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris; Bennett Miller, Moneyball; Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Tate Taylor, The Help
Not much more to add here that doesn't simply reflect what's above, other than -- and here we go back to instinct again -- I can totally see Woody Allen creeping in and taking Eastwood, Fincher or Daldry's spot. And as Ides fades into oblivion, this is likely the last week you'll see Clooney's smiling face on the Index.
The Leading 5:
1. Viola Davis, The Help
2. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
3. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
4. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
5. Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Outsiders: Charlize Theron, Young Adult; Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin; Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur; Felicity Jones, Like Crazy; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Emma Stone, The Help; Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
Much like The Descendants and The Artist enjoyed organic boosts from viewers, critics and pundits alike, Viola Davis is surging into November on a 20-foot wave of goodwill. Perhaps right on cue, the awards cognoscenti are turning away from Meryl Streep in favor of Davis's proven performance and peerless grace -- particularly as evinced by her recent acceptance speech at the Women in Hollywood honors [via Awards Daily]:
Also, I hope you enjoyed your week of upstart Olivia Colman, because now we're onto the week of upstart Elizabeth Olsen. Hell -- the year of upstart Elizabeth Olsen. At long last, Martha Marcy May Marlene opened gangbusters in limited release, and the 22-year-old actress's profile was right where it needed to be with critics (including our own Stephanie Zacharek) and prognosticators alike.
Felicity Jones may be next this week for her role in Like Crazy, which Paramount hasn't shepherded through awards season nearly as expertly as Searchlight's guiding Martha, but still. "[I]n such a competitive year, it's hard to imagine her getting in there," writes Sasha Stone, adding that while Jones belongs in the conversation, "[t]he film has yet to be reviewed by the major critics, so I'll wait before assessing her Oscar chances." Fair enough, but don't anybody go thinking of this as the kind of year when newcomers Carey Mulligan and Gabourey Sidibe both sneaked into the running for their own Sundance darlings -- not with the veteran power moves still to come from Streep, Close, Theron and Williams. Speaking of the latter, leave Busy Phillipps home this time. It's for the best.
The Leading 5:
1. George Clooney, The Descendants
2. Jean Dujardin, The Artist
3. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
4. Michael Fassbender, Shame
5. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Outsiders: Michael Shannon, Take Shelter; Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Woody Harrelson, Rampart; Damian Bechir, A Better Life; Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March; Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method
Notwithstanding what Harvey Weinstein did back in 1998 with Roberto Benigni, I don't know how long Dujardin can hang on this high up amid the Pitts and DiCaprios of the world (and their campaigns). But if, as I have, you've chortled in bemusement every time those ridiculous J. Edgar spots appear on TV, or if you nod in sad agreement while reading David Poland's estimation of Moneyball ("It was really the first big awards movie to open this year. And he was perfect. But will it linger?), then the legitimacy of Dujardin's chances attains a certain, sudden clarity.
Also: The initial headscratching that met Fassbender's high Oscar Index ranking has given way to the general acceptance of his own contention -- particularly with Searchlight this week accepting Shame's NC-17 rating with honor and angling immediately for Academy respect. Who can blame them? It's the only way to make a dime with this film now. As such, expect this to be the hungriest campaign of the next month, with critics in both NYC and L.A. and the secretive National Board of Review targeted for Fassbender wins. One out of three, and he's an Oscar outsider. Two out of three, he's a likely nominee. Three out of three -- which won't happen, but still (after all, someone will want Clooney at their party) -- and the son of a bitch just might pull out a win. Unless he's this year's Social Network, but! One thing at a time.
The Leading 5:
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help
2. Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
3. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
4. Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
5. Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Outsiders: Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter; Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Jessica Chastain, The Help; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Judi Dench, J. Edgar; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Mia Wasikowska, Albert Nobbs; Emily Watson, War Horse; Marion Cotillard, Midnight in Paris
Woodley rose with the Descendants bump, but ultimately this hardware seems to remain Spencer's to lose. Why? Here's Sasha Stone again, pretty persuasively distilling why Spencer has become the front-runner she is:
Her supporting turn in the film is one of the reasons The Help did well, money-wise, but also why it's being talked about an "Oscar contender," which I guess just means it's good enough to be "worthy" of their votes. One has to be specific about these things, to be clear about what the Oscars themselves really mean. But that is neither here nor there - the point is, Spencer bursts forth from The Help - and that is no easy feat with the kinds of supporting actresses in the film with her.
So, for those keeping score at home: (Box office + indelibility) x co-stars outshone = Oscar likelihood. Or something. Someone check my work.
The Leading 5:
1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2. Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
4. Albert Brooks, Drive
5. Nick Nolte, Warrior
Outsiders: Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady; Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris; Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method; John C. Reilly, Carnage; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Moneyball; Armie Hammer, J. Edgar; Tom Hanks, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Sigh. Another week, another turn at the top for Plummer and von Sydow. Nolte and Stoll earned worthwhile boosts as well -- and not likely their last. Still no Uggie, alas. Did I mention sigh? We've got time.
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