Welcome back to week five of Movieline's 2011-12 Oscar Index -- week five! Already! We're entering the second month of this sucker, and our scientists and the Institute for the Advanced Study of Kudos Forensics remain hard at work uncovering new hints and implications every passing day. Well, not every passing day. OK, like, maybe a couple times a week. What can I tell you? It's still early! Let's have a glimpse at the latest -- if light -- movement this week.
[Click the graphs for full-size images.]
The Leading 10:
1. War Horse
2. The Artist
3. The Descendants
4. Moneyball
5. J. Edgar
6. The Help
7. Midnight in Paris
8. The Ides of March
9. My Week With Marilyn
10. Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Outsiders: The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn; Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy The Tree of Life, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
After last week's belabored (re)statement of purpose that pretty much nobody read, instead zeroing in on the graphs as some sort of subjective dream scenario (yes, I really, really must see War Horse walk away with everything, please, nothing would make me happier than more lugubrious Spielberg-ian Oscar bait devoured by a self-satisfied bunch of blue-haired Hollywood shut-ins), I'm just going to cut right to the chase this time around: The Artist is a very, very good film that earned a nice profile boost last week in the closing weekend of the New York Film Festival and as the Audience Award winner out at the Hamptons Film Festival. (It overshadowed The Descendants at both events -- though not by much -- and added another award at the Chicago International Film Festival as well.) A cluster of pundits reiterated its status as the current film to beat, though the experts aggregated at Gold Derby collectively have it topping out at fifth in the race.
Perhaps the more intriguing discussion this week concerned just how many Best Picture nominees there would have come Jan. 24. According to Steve Pond's calculations, the Academy will choose seven:
Yes, it's conceivable that 10 films could end up with the 250-or-so votes needed to land on the Best Picture slate. With nearly 6,000 voters eligible to cast ballots, that number shouldn't be unreachable.
But given the way votes will be spread out among dozens of films, and the limited opportunity to make a move after the initial count, I suspect the number of nominees will be closer to five than to 10 most years.
The Academy, after all, revealed a crucial piece of information when it announced the change: PricewaterhouseCoopers went back and studied 10 years worth of voting, and concluded that if the new system had been in effect, it would have resulted in years of five, six, seven, eight and nine nominees.
But never a year of 10.
Sasha Stone, meanwhile, sees a little more expansion, with The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, Midnight in Paris and Moneyball locked into the running for sure and a few unseen prestige pics taking up the remainder of slots -- however many that means:
The final number of Best Picture nominees will probably be between 5 and 9. 5% of 6000 is 300. That is a high estimate of how many ballots will be turned in. Likely, we're looking at a lower magic number. To reach that number of 300 you either have to have a film with enormous support (like 20% of number 1 votes) or else have enough votes heading into round two that, with the partial votes left over from the 20% ballots to reach 300. [...] I'll probably end up predicting 9 nominees. Unless one of these films that hasn't yet been seen drops off. There is wiggle room for one or two surprises, but they'd have to be really stunning, enthusiastic ones.
Speaking of which, a few possibilities arose with The Adventure of Tintin (which earned raves out of its London premiere) and even Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, which Scott Feinberg reports has a major awards push forthcoming from Warner Bros. We've been hearing this for months, of course, and it's a tremendous long shot under the rule requiring 5 percent of first-place votes for a nomination. But stranger things have happened. Wait. Actually, no they haven't. Nothing more colossally fucking strange than the second installment of the seventh film in a fantasy franchise based on bestselling young-adult novels being nominated for Best Picture has ever happened in the history of the Academy Awards. Ever.
The Leading 5:
1. Steven Spielberg, War Horse
2. Alexander Payne, The Descendants
3. Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
4. Clint Eastwood, J. Edgar
5. David Fincher, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
Outsiders: Stephen Daldry, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; George Clooney, The Ides of March; Bennett Miller, Moneyball; Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris; Tomas Alfredson, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Tate Taylor, The Help
How to enliven what is shaping up as the worst category of the year? How about a game? With no clues to go on except the graph above, guess the date on which this story ran at Gold Derby: "Oscarologists split between directors Spielberg and Payne." Only 18 more weeks to go, everyone!
The Leading 5:
1. Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
2. Viola Davis, The Help
3. Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
4. Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
5. Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Outsiders: Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin; Olivia Colman, Tyrannosaur; Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene; Rooney Mara, The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo; Felicity Jones, Like Crazy; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Emma Stone, The Help; Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
Now this is interesting: Tyrannosaur actress Olivia Colman, whose much-acclaimed performance has been hovering just beyond the bubble for weeks, has landed squarely on its surface this week. Led by Hollywood Elsewhere's Jeffrey Wells in what is, in all likelihood, the first grassroots awards campaign by a critic on behalf of a film and/or performer, Colman's profile has risen to top-five at Gold Derby, while Sasha Stone and Guy Lodge both take a good, long look at Colman's odds for the hyper-competitive Actress race.
Keeping last year's ascent of Jacki Weaver in mind, I love hearing about this kind of thing -- though the idea of Wells raising money for Colman's campaign via PayPal makes me wonder if perhaps more elegant Kickstarter campaigns may be the future of DIY, Melissa Leo-style awards stumping. Imagine someone's team recognizing a groundswell of support for his/her film and offering incentives to fans for contributing to an awards run -- an autographed DVD here, a telephoned thank-you there, lunch with the beneficiary or awards-night chaperone services down the line... The possibilities are endless. They're also totally lame considering that organizing press and industry screenings are distributor Strand Releasing's job. Oh well! Welcome to the 21st century. They can't all be Fox Searchlight or the Weinstein Company.
Elsewhere in the category, Viola Davis earned continued backing from folks like Nathaniel Rogers ("The only sure thing given hit status and a well-loved star turn. Even people who don't like the movie think she elevates it"), while the treacly, Oscar-groveling trailer for Albert Nobbs didn't do anything at all to mitigate that film's lukewarm fall-festival reception. Nathaniel Rogers again, making the definitive point to date about Close's chances: "[I]t's all about The Career. Will enough AMPAS voters feel nostalgic for a performer they absurdly passed over for two iconic star turns?"
The Leading 5:
1. George Clooney, The Descendants
2. Brad Pitt, Moneyball
3. Jean Dujardin, The Artist
4. Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
5. Michael Fassbender, Shame
Outsiders: Michael Shannon, Take Shelter; Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy; Woody Harrelson, Rampart; Tom Hanks, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; Ryan Gosling, The Ides of March; Michael Fassbender, A Dangerous Method; Damian Bechir, A Better Life
Dujardin and co-star Bérénice Bejo's corresponding festival bumps aside, the bulk of the Best Actor jockeying took place on the category's bubble. Shannon enjoyed a significant boost thanks to continued critical support and, more importantly, his sublime Take Shelter being the third awards screener out of the gate this season. Woody Harrelson crept back into the discussion as well, while a rep for _Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close _ alerted me this morning to Hanks being a Supporting candidate for the film, not Lead. Fine! So he can lose in that category to certain eventual winner Christopher Plummer rather than this category's certain eventual winner George Clooney. Either way is fine by me.
The Leading 5:
1. Octavia Spencer, The Help
2. Bérénice Bejo, The Artist
3. Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
4. Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
5. Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Outsiders: Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter; Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids; Jessica Chastain, The Help; Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs; Judi Dench, J. Edgar; Keira Knightley, A Dangerous Method; Mia Wasikowska, Albert Nobbs; Emily Watson, War Horse; Marion Cotillard, Midnight in Paris
You can basically transpose what was written about Jean Dujardin and Michael Shannon in Best Actor to their co-stars Bejo and Chastain -- festival surges and continued critical goodwill (to say nothing of an early screener offensive in the latter case) helped them gain momentum. Spencer still remains the favorite, but Bejo's extraordinary, Hollywood-influenced work may yet overtake her as those all-important critics' awards and organizational events like the Gothams and NBR kick off earlier than ever on Nov. 28.
The Leading 5:
1. Christopher Plummer, Beginners
2. Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
3. Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
4. Albert Brooks, Drive
5. Nick Nolte, Warrior
Outsiders: Jonah Hill, Moneyball; Jim Broadbent, The Iron Lady; Viggo Mortensen, A Dangerous Method; John C. Reilly, Carnage; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Moneyball; Armie Hammer, J. Edgar; Tom Hanks, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close; Corey Stoll, Midnight in Paris
You know whose campaign I'm going to launch/raise money for? Uggie, the brilliant canine performer in The Artist. Seriously. No animal actor since the donkey in Au Hasard Balthazar has evoked a more dynamic relationship to its human master(s). Sincerely, utterly astonishing. Sorry, Crystal the Monkey. Uggie is it. Consider!