As you may have heard, Disney shockingly put the brakes on the planned big-screen adaptation of The Lone Ranger that star Johnny Depp, producer Jerry Bruckheimer and director Gore Verbinski were aiming to bring into theaters next Christmas. The reasons were budgetary -- the cost of Ranger had reportedly ballooned to $250 million -- but it appears that a mere ("mere") $20-30 million is all that separates the studio from the filmmakers. Provided some cuts can be made -- a task easier said than done, as backend deals and three large-scale action scenes revolving around trains reportedly threaten the compromise -- The Lone Ranger could conceivably hit theaters at some point. Unless, of course, Disney realizes it might not be the best idea anyway.
Ahead, five reasons why Disney will never spend $250 million on The Lone Ranger.
The December release date
Per THR, even at the $220 million budget that Disney wants for The Lone Ranger, the film would have to earn $800 million worldwide to hit the black when backend deals and marketing are taken into account. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln! Of the 30 films that have grossed more than $800 million worldwide in Hollywood history, only five have been released in December: Titanic, the three installments of Lord of the Rings and Avatar. Unless The Lone Ranger is a cultural phenomenon on the level of those films (early guess: it won't be), pushing ticket sales into that tax bracket seems like an impossible task from a Dec. 23 launch. Speaking of which...
Brad Pitt, Peter Jackson and Leonardo DiCaprio
Even taking that imposing box office history into account, The Lone Ranger could flirt with $800 million worldwide, provided it was lone; after all, the last two Johnny Deep-led live-action blockbusters -- Alice in Wonderland and Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides -- reached $1 billion in sales around the globe. Unfortunately, it's not. The Dec. 23 bow for The Lone Ranger places it against the second weekend of The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey and -- just announced last week before the news of Ranger's budgetary dirty laundry hit -- World War Z with Brad Pitt. Oh, and Django Unchained, with Leonardo DiCaprio and Jamie Foxx, which arrives two days later. Johnny Depp is one of the biggest stars on the globe, but even he could have a hard time cutting through against competition like that.
It's a non-sequel
There's an obvious reason why multiplexes are littered with Final Destination 5s, Transformers 3s and Harry Potter 7s: Hollywood loves a sequel. It's often a real risk to launch something that isn't part of a larger storyline. (For reference, see Cowboys & Aliens.) Granted, The Lone Ranger is a known property -- and a veteran one, which might actually work in its advantage if you believe the success of The Smurfs -- but it's still not an easy sell to audiences, even with Depp's background launching franchises. Perhaps Disney would be a little more open to spending between $210 and $250 million on The Lone Ranger if there was a number after its title. And sure, we could always go back to Titanic and Avatar, but those were fairly unique cases that actually underscore one critical Lone Ranger hurdle...
It's a Western
When True Grit became a surprise box office smash in the winter, Hollywood was ready to love Westerns again; when Cowboys & Aliens become a (not) surprise box office wash-out in July, Hollywood was ready to toss the genre back into the dust bin. Which goes to show that Hollywood is finicky like a house cat with Westerns, you never know whether the audience will show up or not. It's an older-skewing genre, and Hollywood blockbusters aren't built for older patrons. Will millennials (especially female millennials) pay money to see The Lone Ranger when Johnny Depp isn't even playing the titular hero -- and the titular hero is a cowboy?
It's too risky
Real talk: Even if Verbinski and Bruckheimer can get this film in under budget, and even if Disney threads the needle on the marketing campaign, and even if they find a perfect release date for the film (perhaps late spring 2013), The Lone Ranger still might wash out. When the stakes are this high, why bother taking such a risk? "It's our intention to take a careful look at what films cost," Disney CEO Robert Iger said recently, "and if we can't get them to a level that we're comfortable with, we think that we're better off actually reducing the size of our slate than making films that are bigger and increasingly more risky." Translation: Hi ho, Silver! Go away!
ยท 'Lone Ranger': Director, Producer Offer to Trim Fees as Budget Battle Rages [THR]
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