Hollywood thought ahead this weekend, offering two new films perfect for the national post-St. Patrick's Day hangover sure to ensue on Friday... and a legal thriller for the sturdier-constituted among us eager to avoid the drunken, weaving masses. But let's check out the landscape before giving too many thanks...
NATIONAL OUTLOOK
· Paul: The comic power duo of Simon Pegg and Nick Frost arrive stateside with their third official screen collaboration, and their fist without Hot Fuzz and Shaun of the Dead director Edgar Wright. But! They traded up, if you ask me: Seth Rogen joins in as the voice of the titular alien, discovered by a couple of Brit sci-fi dorks traversing the Southwest en route to Comic-Con. A little inside geek baseball? Maybe. But numbers are numbers: The Pegg/Frost tandem pulled a reasonable $7,000 opening per-screen average four years ago for Hot Fuzz; extrapolated out to Paul's 2,800 screens (and diminished a bit for competition, genre and general audience diffusion), you're probably looking at no less that a $17 million opening, R-rating notwithstanding. Your mileage may vary, but I like its chances to surprise against a weak holdover crop and the gang behind Limitless. FORECAST: $17.9 million
· Limitless: Look at it this way: We may not be able to fix or even fully comprehend Japan's nuclear crisis within the next 48 hours, but we'll know whether or not Bradley Cooper is a bankable leading man. Not that I'm saying to put Hollywood in charge at Fukushima or anything, but it's nice to have at least some resolution to look forward to, no? OK, never mind. FORECAST: $14.7 million
· The Lincoln Lawyer: And even if Cooper slips, he can always look to Matthew McConaughey -- that model of Try-Try-Again superstardom who returns this week as a car-bound attorney attempting to get to the bottom of a particularly troubling, treacherous murder case. Reviews are upbeat, people love a good legal thriller, and TLL has a perfect release window in terms of competition for grown-ups. (Though the acclaimed Jane Eyre is expanding, its 22 extra theaters -- hell, it's genre -- won't be much of a factor for TLL.) It'll trail to Limitless this week, but watch out for the long word-of-mouth-fueled tail. This could be you, Brad! Only 14 or so more shirtless roles to go! FORECAST: $13.6 million
STORM WARNING
Not for a new film, but seriously: Do not not be within 50 miles of anywhere near where Mars Needs Moms' second weekend makes landfall. This thing could very easily wipe out at under $1,000 per screen, sucking anything and anyone in its path down with it. Pass the word along to anyone you see entering a MMM auditorium; it's the right thing to do.
REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Among the films emerging in limited release, Movieline heartily recommends the upbeat, reassuring and all-around entertaining tale-of-our-time Win Win (opening on five screens in NYC and L.A.) as well as the revelatory fashion-photographer doc Bill Cunningham New York. J.K. Simmons and Lou Taylor Pucci's Sundance alum The Music Never Stopped rolls out on almost three dozen screens, and Eva Green devotees on the coasts are urged to take in her new drama Cracks.
Your turn: Call your shots! Closest without going over receives a signed picture of Bradley Cooper. Never mind that I'll be the one signing it; just let me know what your plans/projections are.