Were I a betting man, I'd probably stick to the the conclusions of the exhaustively-researched Movieline Oscar Index. More to point: I know in my mind that The King's Speech will probably win most of the awards, but I just don't feel it in my heart! And here in Paris, where Speech has only been out for a few weeks and everyone's obsessed with David Fincher, the cultural climate is still screaming The Social Network! So here it goes: I'm still predicting a "Facebook movie" sweep.
(Um, use these picks on an Oscar pool at your own risk.)
Best Picture: The Social Network
Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, The Black Swan
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King's Speech
Best Supporting Actress: Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
Best Documentary: Exit Through the Gift Shop
Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins, True Grit
Film Editing: Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter, The Social Network
Best Foreign Language Film: Biutiful
(Though my heart will always belong to Dogtooth)
Best Screenplay (Adapted): Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Best Screenplay (Original): David Seidler, The King's Speech