Oscar Index: And the Nominees Are...*
- Er, make that "will be..." Maybe. Movieline's Center for the Advanced Study of Kudos Forensics has been working overtime to break down the last week of contention for Academy Award nominations, finding the most intense activity among actors on bubbles. The researchers' findings follow; report your own in the comments...
[Click the graphs for larger images]
The Leading 10:
1. The Social Network
2. The King's Speech
3. The Fighter
4. Inception
5. Black Swan
6. True Grit
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. Toy Story 3
9. The Town
10. 127 Hours
Outsiders: Blue Valentine; Winter's Bone; Rabbit Hole; Shutter Island
Notes: So with maybe one exception -- Blue Valentine sneaking in to overtake 127 Hours -- this is how your Best Picture Class of '11 appears to be shaping up. Screw the Golden Globe/Critics Choice Awards pseudo-bellwethers and the more category-specific implications of the BAFTA nominations: The top half of these nominees are virtually guaranteed thanks to the historically precise recognition of the American Cinema Editors Eddie nominations, and as Sasha Stone notes, The Social Network is on a literally unprecedented tear at the front of the pack:
I have measured these important groups of early voting bodies: National Board of Review, Los Angeles Film Critics, New York Film Critics, National Society of Film Critics, Southeastern Film Critics, Critics Choice, Golden Globe - I am not even counting Chicago, Dallas Fort Worth, Boston, Florida and other groups that have been around a while. What I discovered is this: only one film has won them all: The Social Network. [...] The only Best Picture winner to win with virtually no awards for Best Picture prior to the Oscars would be Crash.
Now would be the time for those few remaining King's Speech loyalists to get to work, right? Wrong: While Dave Karger still has Speech as his favorite into the nominations, even he acknowledges the film's precipitous fade: "My No. 1 Best Picture pick is hanging by a thread." Other pundits, meanwhile, marveled at both the finesse (Scott Rudin and Aaron Sorkin softening Mark Zuckerberg's "unlikable" image during their Golden Globes speeches) and brute force (Sony has reportedly spent an also-unprecedented $5 million to date on TSN's Oscar campaign) of the Social Network juggernaut. Even Harvey Weinstein seemed resigned, maybe even adaptive to the changing Oscar tide, telling the NYT: "[A]s we're learning from the Academy, Hurt Locker is suited for Academy taste. Inglorious Basterds - you would never 10 years ago say, that's going to get eight Academy nominations. So I think today that stereotype of the classic movie is gone." There's always the chance Harvey's just urging the Academy to prove him wrong, but judging by the staggering TSN showing, I'll take him at face value for now.
The Leading 5:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Christopher Nolan, Inception
3. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
4. David O. Russell, The Fighter
5. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
Outsiders: Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit; Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right; Danny Boyle, 127 Hours; Mike Leigh, Another Year
Notes: OK, now here is where I would (and, er, did) probably point out a related clue from the BAFTA nominations: The Coens are probably screwed. We all pretty much knew this after the DGA nominations were announced, but tack on the voter overlap between US and UK Academies and... well, yeah. And again, True Grit didn't make the cut (ha!) with the ACE voters, either -- and these guys are their own editors. Tough luck, fellas; at least Scott Feinberg's got your back.
Oh, and a bonus: How classic is David Fincher, casually praising Black Swan last week between bites of french fries and arguments that "more money should be spent on movies, and less on marketing." And then there was this, from the same event: "I have a fueled Citation on the runway at Teterboro. As soon as the first snowflake hits me in the eye, I'm leaving. I have a big day tomorrow." Dude, you have a big day for next month and a freaking half. Keep that Citation fueled.
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Comments
I've enjoyed reading this in the lead-up to nominations and I'm with you on a lot of my final predictions for nominations too.
I really hope to Javier Bardem nominated...how cool would it be to see Kim Hye-ja nominated for Mother as well. I really hope Winter's Bone gets into the Best Picture race over The Town - which really doesn't deserve it. But that's just my opinions - Here are my predictions.
Best Picture:
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Alternate: Winter's Bone
Best Director
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
David Fincher (The Social Network)
Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
David O. Russell (The Fighter)
Alternate: Joel & Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Best Original Screenplay
Lisa Cholodenko/Stuart Blumberg (The Kids Are All Right)
Andres Heinz/Mark Heyman/John J McLaughlin (Black Swan)
Christopher Nolan (Inception)
David Siedler (The King’s Speech)
Scott Silver/Paul Tamasay/Eric Johnson (The Fighter)
Alternate: Mike Leigh (Another Year)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Michael Arndt (Toy Story 3)
Danny Boyle/Simon Beaufoy (127 Hours)
Joel Coen/Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Debra Granik/Anne Rosellini (Winter’s Bone)
Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)
Alternate: Ben Affleck (The Town)
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Robert Duvall (Get Low)
Jessie Eisenberg (The Social Network)
Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Alternate: Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
Jeremy Renner (The Town)
Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right)
Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
Alternate: John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)
Best Actress
Annette Bening (The Kids Are All Right)
Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine)
Alternate: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (The Fighter)
Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
Hailee Steinfield (True Grit)
Jackie Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Alternate: Mila Kunis (Black Swan)
Best Editing
Tariq Anwar (The King's Speech)
Kirk Baxter/Angus Wall (The Social Network)
Pamela Martin (The Fighter)
Lee Smith (Inception)
Andrew Weisblum (Black Swan)
Alternate: True Grit
Best Cinematography
Danny Cohen (The King's Speech)
Jeff Cronenweth (The Social Network)
Roger Deakins (True Grit)
Matthew Libatique (Black Swan)
Wally Pfitser (Inception)
Alternate: Anthony Dod Mantle (127 Hours)
Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter 7: Part 1
Inception
Iron Man 2
TRON: Legacy
Alternate: Hereafter
Original Score
Alexandre Desplat (The King's Speech)
John Powell (How to Train Your Dragon)
A.R. Rahman (127 Hours)
Trent Reznor/Atticus Ross (The Social Network)
Hans Zimmer (Inception)
Alternate: Danny Elfman (Alice in Wonderland)
Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
Barney's Version
The Wolfman
Alternate: The Way Back
Art Direction
Stefan Dechant (Alice in Wonderland)
Therese DePrez/Tora Peterson (Black Swan)
Guy Hendriz Dyas (Inception)
Jess Gonchor/Nancy Heigh (True Grit)
Eve Stuart/Judy Farr (The King's Speech)
Alternate: Dante Ferretti (Shutter Island)
Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Burlesque
The King’s Speech
True Girt
Alternate: The Tempest
Best Sound Mixing
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
The Social Network
True Grit
Alternate: Shutter Island
Best Sound Editing
127 Hours
Black Swan
Inception
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Alternate: The Social Network
Best Original Song
"If I Rise" - 127 Hours
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me" - Burlesque
"I See the Light" - Tangled
"We Belong Together" - Toy Story 3
"Shine" - Waiting for Superman
Alternate: "Bound to You" - Burlesque
Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Alternate: Tangled
Documentary Feature
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman
Alternate: Client 9: The Fall of Elliot Spitzer
Foreign Language Feature
Biutiful (Mexico)
Dogtooth (Greece)
In a Better World (Denmark)
Incendies (Canada)
Life Above All (South Africa)
Alternate: Simple Simon (Sweden)