Three months down, one to go as Movieline's redoubtable Oscar Index tracks the cutthroat dynamics, strategies, tea-leaf analyses and total flukes leading up to the 83rd Academy Award nominations. This week's SAG Award nominations and continued critics prizes led to an blippy array of movements, with most occurring (perhaps obviously) in the increasingly competitive actors categories. Let's break it down.
[Click the graphs for larger images]
The Leading 10:
1. The Social Network
2. The King's Speech
3. The Fighter
4. Black Swan
5. Inception
6. True Grit
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. 127 Hours
9. Winter's Bone
10. Toy Story 3
Outsiders: Blue Valentine; The Town; Rabbit Hole; Shutter Island; The Ghost Writer
Notes: Another week, another devastating critics' awards run for The Social Network, a seemingly rhythmic series of accolades that came to drown out the sparse but spirited praise for The King's Speech. I mean, any time you have the London Critics Circle, Ed Koch, and Kevin Smith on your side, then you must know not all is lost. And how about this historical observation from Philadelphia Enquirer critic Stephen Rea: "[T]he last time -- the only other time, in fact -- that Firth and Rush appeared together onscreen was in 1998's Shakespeare in Love, the little Elizabethan romp that went on to win seven Academy Awards, including best picture. Don't be surprised if the Firth-Rush combo has a similar effect at the 2011 Oscars." So... yeah. It's early, it's Harvey, nothing is over yet.
As such, Sony is not taking its lead for granted. One pundit notes the studio's harried pre-holiday push -- not necessarily to counter Speech, either, but more likely to stave off the surge seen on behalf of The Fighter. The SAG Award nominations rang everyone's bell, but that solid medium-wide opening last weekend suggested that this may, finally, be the year of the crowd-pleaser at the Oscars. But as another observer asks (and persuasively answers), what is a crowd-pleaser in 2010? It's clearly a definition that "complex," critically acclaimed films like Social Network and Black Swan have come to influence while more conventionally mainstream fare (e.g. Speech, Fighter and possibly True Grit) slip ever more desperately into "X-factor" territory: "If anyone is asked what movie looks most likely to win right now, at this stage in the race, they would have to say, based on the evidence, that The Social Network is in the lead," writes Sasha Stone. "The only thing preventing them from doing so is their own stubbornness about the film itself: not a good enough reason."
The Leading 5:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
3. Christopher Nolan, Inception
4. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
5. David O. Russell, The Fighter
Outsiders: Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit; Danny Boyle, 127 Hours; Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right; Mike Leigh, Another Year
Notes: Did anything happen here? Alert me to anything I missed. I guess you could swap Aronofsky and Russell if you really wanted to, but the SAG nominations are essentially negligible in this race. But! We have a couple weeks to DGA nominations, at which point we'll see if the Coens and Boyle -- and possibly Cholodenko, though, I mean, well, no -- have enough peer-juice to overtake the bottom two.
The Leading 5:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Outsiders: Lesley Manville, Another Year; Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Hilary Swank, Conviction; Tilda Swinton, I Am Love
Notes: OK, so we need to talk about Hilary Swank. Or do we? The two-time Oscar winner was a non-starter all season for Conviction, had all but disappeared into the swampy also-ran muck, and then... the SAG nominations suddenly have her competing. What? If you've been following this feature for the last three months then you know I'm not all that surprised to see Julianne Moore drop off, but as I steadfastly refuse to believe Swank is now actually in the running for a nomination, I can only see this meaning Williams is on the downslope and Manville is on the upswing for that fifth slot. I mean, Hilary Swank, SAG? Really? Thanks for making it sort of interesting, I guess.
Oh, and as stated yesterday, you Natalie Portman underminers know where to shove your Norbit theories. This conversation is over.
The Leading 5:
1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
2. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
3. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
4. James Franco, 127 Hours
5. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Outsiders: Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Javier Bardem, Biutiful; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version
Notes: God, not this again. Listen, I love Robert Duvall -- a lot -- but we simply cannot allow Bardem to go unheralded this season for his work in Biutiful. There's only so much pleading that guys like Steve Pond, Dave Karger, Jeff Wells and I can do on his behalf, like we matter anyway. All you SAG members, Academy voters, bookies, Congressmen, priests, whoever you are with any influence in these matters, listen up: It's not the glory anyone's after here. It's the audience. This is clear, right? Get Low had its time, Blue Valentine has its hype, True Grit's great, but... yeah. Foreign-language film, tough sit, transcendent work. Bardem needs this one, and moreover, he earned it. Recognize, already.
The Leading 5:
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
3. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
4. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
5. Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Outsiders: Amy Adams, The Fighter; Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Sissy Spacek, Get Low
Notes: Team Jacki update: I should probably double-check this, but nobody panic about Australia-based, non-SAG-registered Weaver's omission from the SAG contenders. Someone had keep her spot warm ahead of the Oscar nominations, and honestly, it could probably go either way between Kunis and Adams. I'll take Adams as the placeholder if only because I can't see Black Swan going 0-fer in the supporting categories. Steinfeld's profile climbs higher by the hour as True Grit attracts one opening-day blessing after another. We'll see what happens from here. Leo's not fail-safe up there, though.
The Leading 5:
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
4. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
5. Jeremy Renner, The Town
Outsiders: John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Ed Harris, The Way Back
Notes: Probably the category where SAG wreaked most of its havoc, we've got Renner, Hawkes and Ruffalo (who, I admit, should have been in this company last week) claiming space once thought to favor Hammer, Harris and Sam Rockwell, the latter of whom mysteriously missed the Conviction bounce that proved so beneficial to co-star Hilary Swank. Garfield was perhaps the most notable snub; Douglas is a sympathy-nod all the way (and looking a little better on those terms every day). Of course, as I remind you every week, none of this matters as long as Bale remains in the race, but still. There are at least four actors competing for two slots, split fairly evenly between studio muscle and indie spunk. Split the difference, I guess, and you'll probably wind up with Douglas and Hawkes. Who knows? Talk to me in a couple weeks.