Welcome back to the latest edition of Movieline's Weekend Forecat -- kind of an abbreviated edition, in fact, seeing as not a single full-scale wide release opens today. The best we've got are a bunch of ninjas making their belated debut in 1,600 theaters, while two smaller films you've got the hots for tumble into limited release behind it. Let's make some projections...
NATIONAL OUTLOOK
The Warrior's Way: As co-star Geoffrey Rush explained to us not long ago, this story of a Japanese swordsman exiled to the Old West after refusing an assignment -- only to hunted down by vengeance-seeking ninjas and other killers -- sat on a shelf for the better part of three years awaiting completion. Judging from the underwhelming CGI of Way's heavily rotated Web clips, previews and TV spots, "completion" is relative. So maybe it's fitting that -- wait for it -- Relativity has made the film its first big release after assuming control of Overture Films' distribution apparatus. Or... maybe not. I really don't know, I really don't care. And the odds are most of America doesn't either; at best, Way works as counterprogramming to Tangled, which will carry over from a terrific Thanksgiving weekend with another strong showing around $23 million. Still: Blink and you'll miss it. FORECAST: $6.6 million
I really enjoyed Barney's Version, the sprawling adaptation of Mordechai Richler's novel about curmudgeonly TV producer, devoted-ish husband and all-around Jewish-Canadian trip Barney Panofsky. Inspired casting takes the day, from Paul Giamatti brooding and bellowing (and finally breaking your heart) in the title role to Rosamund Pike as the lithe New Yorker of his dreams to Scott Speedman as his ne'er-do-well buddy to Dustin Hoffman stealing every scene as Barney's wisecracking cop father. Their dialogues alone are worth the price of admission, but far more comforting is Giamatti and director Richard J. Lewis's handling of an antihero who deserves nothing more than our scorn, yet emerges with surprising complexity and compassion. And humor! It's funny! And maybe too long. But its resonance sneaks up on you, and it doesn't shake off easily. See it.
REGIONAL OUTLOOK
Listen, by now you've read and heard all you probably should about Black Swan (and if you've avoided the three months of hype and chatter to date, good for you; I think you'll enjoy it all the more). Fox Searchlight has this rolling out on a fairly aggressive 18 screens, likely meaning a lower opening per-screen average than last month's 127 Hours or King's Speech, but also representing the more traditionally populist approach Darren Aronofsky's genre film needs -- and it is a genre film, whether you fall on the horror or melodrama side of things. What will the average be? Great question. An even $1 million gross would break down to a little more than $50K per screen, which sounds about right and would place Swan in prime position to break into the Top 10 next weekend. It would also go a long way toward validating the film among skeptical Academy voters who may think it's too esoteric or flat out weird for legitimate Oscar consideration. (Which it will receive either way, but still.)
For all the trouble Warrior's Way had finding a theatrical outlet, the gay ex-con romcom/caper I Love You Phillip Morris itself barely made it out of distribution limbo alive. But now that it has, was the Jim Carrey/Ewan McGregor effort worth the wait? Art house audiences will make that first determination on six screens. The week's other long-delayed effort, the Ryan Gosling/Kirsten Dunst true-crime potboiler All Good Things, also trickles out on four screens, where it is generally expected to sputter, flail and die.
What are you checking out this weekend?