Welcome back to another week of Movieline's Oscar Index, a comprehensive survey of hype, hubris and other standard-issue awards-season happenings. This week it's The King's Speech's turn in the spotlight -- but the competition isn't so far behind. Let's break it down.
[Click the graphs for larger images]
The Leading 10:
1. The King's Speech
2. The Social Network
3. Black Swan
4. 127 Hours
5. The Fighter
6. Inception
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. True Grit
9. Toy Story 3
10. Winter's Bone
Outsiders: Blue Valentine; Another Year; How Do You Know; Made in Dagenham
Notes: The King's Speech is finally arriving in theaters this weekend, but it's the film's recent Academy screening that seems to have set it apart for the audience that ultimately matters: Oscar voters
"The audience loved the film ... It played as well as anything I have seen this year," reported one Academy member who attended the screening at the 1,000-seat Samuel Goldwyn theater, which the member estimated was 85 percent full.
Another person in attendance said that the credits brought "lots of applause" for director Hooper and stars Colin Firth, Geoffrey Rush, Helena Bonham Carter, Guy Pearce and others, plus "solid applause for the writer, cinematographer, costumes, all down the line." And when the full cast scroll appeared onscreen, a second round of applause started up.
Of course, The Social Network had a relatively rousing Academy debut of its own, but thus far the conventional wisdom has the classic drama holding a little more weight against the contemporary drama. This can (and probably will) change in the weeks and months ahead, but Sony would likely acknowledge this is the King's time: Let it open, let it peak, and let's see where we are in mid-December as The Fighter and True Grit break up the conversation. That's fair.
Focus Features, meanwhile, senses it's now or never for its Kids Are All Right push; the crowd-pleasing summer release still has the little issue of where to campaign Annette Bening and Julianne Moore, but just keeping it visible for Picture right now seems to be priority one. Some skeptics dismiss it, but according to Pete Hammond, the effort is reaping at least a few rewards in the Academy's largest branch: "[A] turn-away crowd of actors voting for the SAG award nominations this year [...] turned the post-screening session into a rollicking seminar on the art of acting," he wrote.
Finally what of Toy Story 3, to which Disney has so insistently pledged not only a Best Picture nomination, but a win? Most pundits get it, even as they brush it off. Take Sasha Stone:
Two things would happen if the film managed to pull off a win - it would immediately degrade the film itself, and it may very well make a mockery of the proceedings. The reason for this isn't that Toy Story 3 isn't good. It's that they would be saying there weren't any worthy live action films. And let's face it, that is just plainly untrue. So, I don't see a scenario that has Toy Story 3 winning. I can't even see it being many voters' number 1 film of the year.
Pretty much, yeah.
The Leading 5:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
3. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
4. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
5. Christopher Nolan, Inception
Outsiders: David O. Russell, The Fighter; Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit; Mike Leigh, Another Year; Peter Weir, The Way Back; James Brooks, How Do You Know
Notes: The Social Network/King's Speech debate in Picture -- not to mention Danny Boyle's hibernation-by-design after 127 Hours' superb (if mildly overexposed) run -- drags each film's director back into the Top 2 of their own category. Aronofsky didn't hurt his case with Natalie Portman running off with Best Actress and his own avowal not to compromise on Wolverine -- a shot over the bow of any directors branch haters who want to discount him for taking a paycheck flick. He's still going to have to fight Russell and the Coens (and possibly Peter Weir, who continues to lurk very quietly but very potently on the outside) for final consideration, but at least he's making his case. He wants it. And wanting it never hurts.
The Leading 5:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
5. Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
Outsiders: Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Tilda Swinton, I Am Love; Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Naomi Watts, _Fair Game
Notes: Pete Hammond has a fairly useful breakdown of this whole race over at Deadline, all of which comes down to, "It's Portman's to lose --- to Bening." Surprise! But the rest is interesting as well, making the case for Kidman in particular to make an end run into contention. Williams is conspicuous on the campaign front these days as well, while pundits keep making the case for Swinton to break through if Magnolia Pictures just spent a few bucks. (A hilarious commenter at Deadline disagrees: "Let me tell you something about Tilda Swindon's performance: IT SUCKED. I'm Italian and I can tell you she recited ABOMINABLY." Easy there, Mr. Weinstein!)
Apologies to Sally Hawkins and Lesley Manville, the former of whose film fizzled last weekend at the specialty box office, and the latter of whom seems to have been lost in the enduring "Actress-or-Supporting Actress?" debate. There's only enough attention-span for one contender in that conversation, and I think Julianne Moore already staked it. Also: Halle Berry, stop it.
The Leading 5:
1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
2. James Franco, 127 Hours
3. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
4. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
5. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Outsiders: Robert Duvall, Get Low; Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version
Notes: Firth rides the Academy-screening wave over his closest competitor Franco, but this week's real shifts occur in the middle of the pack. Despite initial reports that Wahlberg would have a tough time holding his own in the Actor category, you really have to love Paramount's attempt to mainstream the hell out of him and The Fighter. Between Wahlberg's 60 Minutes profile and Christian Bale's Esquire cover, the last week of media coups have been among the splashiest of the season to date. This is the kind of presence the studio might want to consider for Bridges here pretty soon if they want to have a two-fer in the running; after all, Bardem will contend, and I don't necessarily buy the idea that Duvall is a lock for anything just because. Gosling's a comer, too. Should be fun (i.e. bruising) to watch.
The Leading 5:
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
3. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
5. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole
Outsiders: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Amy Adams, The Fighter; Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham; Sissy Spacek, Get Low; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Notes: More King's Speech uptick here; Carter is essentially in as presumed, and you might even see her climb back to the top -- but probably not 'til Oscar night itself, symbolically launching The King's Speech table-running of the evening (except for Supporting Actor, which has Christian Bale so far ahead he's almost lapped once-upon-a-time also-ran Justin Timberlake). Amy Adams sneaks closer and closer to the Top 5 by virtue of Miranda Richardson's movie tripping over itself last weekend; the Academy loves Adams, and probably won't need much more excuse than that and her unsightly Fighter muffin-top to reward her selfless performance.
Requisite Jacki Weaver update: The Great One told Vulture's Lane Brown last week that while she has high hopes for Oscar consideration, a previous commitment in her native Australia might complicate the campaigning process:
I've got this play until December. And it's huge, because Cate Blanchett is in it, it's been sold out for months. And we don't have understudies. So I don't know if I can get to America until early January. And it would involve canceling several shows or having somebody replace me, and I don't know if they can.
Honey, Mo'Nique didn't show up for a damn thing last year and walked away with the Oscar. We'll consider this your doctor's note and see you in January. Onward! Team Jacki!
The Leading 5:
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
3. Armie Hammer, The Social Network
4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
5. Ed Harris, The Way Back
Outsiders: Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps; John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Matt Damon, True Grit; Paul Rudd, How Do You Know
Notes: Yawn. The most we can really say for this category is that A) Ed Harris still has champions out there, B) John Hawkes has as much of a shot as anybody right now to sneak in at No. 5, and C) best wishes to Michael Douglas, but stop wasting our time, Fox. Was the .00045% bump in Wall Street 2 DVD traffic really worth that BS hype? What's next? Is Rampage Jackson next for The A-Team, coming Dec. 14 to Blu-ray and DVD? Vampires Suck for the Musical/Comedy category at the Globes? Let's focus, people!