Another week, another turbulent week in the life of Movieline's Oscar Index. Some soared, others, not so much. And others still just held on for dear life and made the whole race kind of stagnant, to be honest. What do you say we shake it up? Here's the latest...
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The Leading 10:
1. The King's Speech
2. The Social Network
3. [tie] 127 Hours
3. [tie] Black Swan
5. The Fighter
6. Inception
7. True Grit
8. Toy Story 3
9. The Kids Are All Right
10. Winter's Bone
Outsiders: Another Year; Blue Valentine; Made in Dagenham; How Do You Know;
Notes: Most observers agree The King's Speech continues to carry the day in Best Picture, with a renewed push from Team Social Network nudging it back to a close second. Notes Scott Feinberg: "The Social Network has performed extremely well at the box-office, registered strongly with moviegoers (and Oscar voters) in all demographics, and become an enduring part of our cultural discussion to an extent that I don't believe The King's Speech can match." Steve Pond's right there with him. But it doesn't have the fainty, fulsome praise accompanying Fox Searchlight's darlings 127 Hours and Black Swan, which are neck-and-neck with the former going wide this weekend and the latter earning raves at last week's Hollywood coming-out party.
The Fighter continued its slow march into the Top 5, surpassing Inception in held-over hype if nothing else. Toy Story 3's reaffirmed position in the Animated Feature race is less relevant here than Disney chief Rich Ross actually saying things like: "We're going for the Best Picture win. We wanted to have the best movie, and the reviews have clearly said that, and it's the number one box office hit of the year, so I'm not sure why we would not go for it all." Cute. The 10th slot in the race is admittedly up for grabs, but I think we can safely disqualify Love and Other Drugs, unless a redband trailer suddenly delivers newfound cachet to one's awards-season hopes.
The Leading 5:
1. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
2. David Fincher, The Social Network
3. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
4. Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
5. Christopher Nolan, Inception
Outsiders: David O. Russell, The Fighter; Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit; Mike Leigh, Another Year; James Brooks, How Do You Know; Peter Weir, The Way Back
Notes: Welcome back, Darren Aronofsky! One triumphant premiere and one surefire Best Actress front-runner later, you are back in business. I would nudge you past that shameless poster-thwacker Tom Hooper, but I don't think you're quite in the Top-3 league yet -- particularly Fincher, for whom the new mantra appears to be, "He's due." In a field like this, that'll go a longer way than you probably think at first: Boyle's already won it, Hooper's never competed, Nolan's not earned it, Russell wants it but has a past, and the Coens have won it but don't seem to care, anyway. And you, Darren, are reportedly "allergic to sentiment and commercial sensibilities." But it's a long season! You can learn. Kiss some babies or something.
The Leading 5:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
4. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham
5. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Outsiders: Lesley Manville, Another Year; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine; Naomi Watts, Fair Game; Tilda Swinton, I Am Love; Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
Notes: Remember what I said last week about the whole Bening-to-Portman swing? About how you think it's Bening's year -- and then you can't catch your breath while watching Black Swan? Sasha Stone knows what I mean:
Natalie Portman has hinted at being a versatile actress, willing to go deep to access the emotional soil for a part, but never has she committed this fully and completely, giving herself over as actors sometimes do - Robert DeNiro in Raging Bull, Meryl Streep in Sophie's Choice [...] These are those rare occasions when the actor is eclipsed by the character, the performance that then reaches something more than likable, believable; it becomes moving art.
A week ago she had Bening to win it all. I know the feeling, and you will, too, when Black Swan opens in a couple weeks. Portman will have to find some serious, Eddie Murphy/Mickey Rourke-grade industry disgrace in the next three months to give this one away.
As for the rest? Sally Hawkins had a pleasing bump when her gender-rights dramedy Made in Dagenham postered her like some sort of screen-acting saint, downplaying seemingly everything else but Sally Sally Sally. Anne Hathaway is dunzo, Julianne Moore is making her way back to Supporting in the wake of Tom O'Neil's hilarious but fundamentally reasonable screed last week, and Lesley Manville and Michelle Williams are once again stirring some serious bubble talk behind the scenes. I suddenly like Williams for this -- call it a hunch. The Tilda Swinton camp is growing, too. Better late than never.
The Leading 5:
1. James Franco, 127 Hours
2. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
3. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
4. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
5. Robert Duvall, Get Low
Outsiders: Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version
Notes: You know what nobody was talking about this week? The Best Actor race. Eerie quiet, folks. I'm just waiting for Bardem to make his move next month, though Firth will probably reclaim No. 1 by the end of month with King's Speech opening after Thanksgiving. Bridges and Gosling aren't far behind them, either. Keep an eye out.
The Leading 5:
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
3. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
4. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole
5. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Outsiders: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham; Amy Adams, The Fighter; Sissy Spacek, Get Low; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Notes: Hey, look! Another static race. If anything, Leo probably should be scraping that top bar; in the slowest of slow weeks, she managed to inspire a sincere comparison to Marisa Tomei's winning role in My Cousin Vinny. But Jacki Weaver! Let's go, Jacki! God, is it February yet?
The Leading 5:
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
3. Armie Hammer, The Social Network
4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
5. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
Outsiders: Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Ed Harris, The Way Back; John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Matt Damon, True Grit; Paul Rudd, How Do You Know
Notes: So: Was that whole "Michael Douglas for Supporting Actor" thing a joke? Or what? What about Ed Harris? Does anybody actually have a serious campaign planned for either of these guys, or are we just going to stand back and hope they get by on gravitas and entitlement alone? Sam Rockwell? Hello? Because I'm sorry, people are actually still talking about The Social Network. Andrew Garfield is putting in the work. And it's not like he has to; the guy's Spider-Man, for crissake. And that's to say nothing of Armie Hammer, a true awards hustler in the making. John Hawkes is coming hard, folks. So what if Christian Bale already has it locked up? Get it together, fellas!