Movieline

Who Will Lose Dancing with the Stars Tonight? Movieline Stacks the Odds

We've had Tom Bergeron and Erin Andrews try to make sense of it, but the bottom line is that Dancing with the Stars' 11th season is confounding. Frontrunners have departed early (Audrina Patridge) and last-place hoofers have survived (Bristol Palin). Who of last night's four remaining finalists won't make the final three? We size up the odds after the jump.

Jennifer Grey

Scores Last Night: 30, 30 (Perfect)

Odds of Elimination: 20:1

The supremacy of the Dirty Dancing star is obvious, triumphant, and touching -- it would take major voter bursts from all three other contestants in order for her to go home. And if that's the case, you may as well stamp "VOID" on the entire season with a big Price is Right "Check Game" prop; Jennifer is who makes this competition worthwhile, and her exclusion would render it worthless.


Brandy

Scores Last Night: 27, 30

Odds of Elimination: 5:1

Brandy holds the respectable (but apparently fatal, judging by Audrina's elimination) position of solid runner-up. She's a strong dancer whose fixation on winning could isolate voters and push them to dial in for an underdog like Kyle Massey. Worse, Kyle outscored her this week. But the hotheaded Maksim is a DWTS fan favorite, and therefore she may sneak into the finals.


Kyle Massey

Scores Last Night: 29, 29

Odds of Elimination: 8:1

In true Kris Allen fashion, Kyle Massey's rise to "crowd favorite" has been steady -- and it appears to be peaking just in time. You could argue he's this season's Niecy Nash, the fanciful performer with flourish in lieu of technique, but Kyle's grasp of choreography has also improved drastically during the competition. He should be good for one last voter rally.


Bristol Palin

Scores Last Night: 27, 26

Odds of Elimination: 2:1

I'm all for Dancing with the Stars's forays into nonsense eliminations, but there comes a point when the public steps up and realizes its judge-approved favorites are in danger. Bristol's had a patchy journey -- and a good past few weeks -- but I think this is the week she'll succumb to her competitors' voter camps. Frankly, she's more tired of this than we are. (Let's all thank Carrie Ann for her dogging Bristol's mysteriously high scores with a lone "8" after her waltz -- without it, Miss Plain would've scored a unanimous "9" vote for both of her dances. Please.)