Another bit of late turbulence this week as Movieline's Oscar Index came in to land, starting with more affected 127 Hours viewers and finally some bankable word on the prospects for The Fighter. To wit: Christian Bale, clean your tux and clear your schedule. You will be busy.
[Click the graphs for larger images]
The Leading 10:
1. The King's Speech
2. 127 Hours
3. The Social Network
4. Inception
5. Black Swan
6. The Fighter
7. True Grit
8. Toy Story 3
9. The Kids Are All Right
10. Winter's Bone
Outsiders: Another Year; Blue Valentine; Made in Dagenham; How Do You Know; Love and Other Drugs; For Colored Girls
Notes: Hey, finally, some movement on The Fighter! Tuesday's night's world premiere at AFI Fest met with mostly strong acclaim, with a few hecklers chiming in from the gallery and plenty of Picture buzz flooding the Web afterward. Even Anne Thompson, who'd all but sworn that neither The Fighter nor bad-boy director David O. Russell would get pass the Academy smell-test however good they were, today wrote, "The buzz on the street about David O. Russell's The Fighter -- the boxing movie is a rousing crowd-pleaser, stolen by Christian Bale -- was correct. [...] The $25-million '90s period movie is more than a quest for a boxing title." (Wahlberg didn't fare as well, but more on that in a bit.)
Meanwhile -- and maybe this is burying the lede, but I swear without The Fighter update this feature would have been, like, 50 words this week -- look who's tumbled from the top spot! I don't know how long The King's Speech and 127 Hours can sustain their momentum; probably as long as people keep fainting at the latter and pundits keep swearing by the latter. What kind of bump did Social Network get this week? A nice write-up in the New York Review of Books? I can't wait to see what Sony has planned to bounce back, even as it faces rolling out How Do You Know next month as well.
The Leading 5:
1. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
3. Christopher Nolan, Inception
4. David Fincher, The Social Network
5. Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
Outsiders: David O. Russell, The Fighter; Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Mike Leigh, Another Year; James Brooks, How Do You Know; Peter Weir, The Way Back
Notes: This remains the most brutal of all six major categories, and you can tell Russell desperately wants to break in. "It took me such a long time to get the movie made that if you don't like the movie, I'll do two hours of hard labor," he said before Tuesday's premiere. "I did it to get the movie made and I will do it for anyone who doesn't like it." Humble! Servile! Maybe too humble and servile, though? Anyway, he'll beat the Coens in that department any year, but is at the disadvantage of having to run behind the True Grit filmmakers at their own studio. That'll be interesting to watch.
The top four are set as far as I'm concerned, with the sweetheart Boyle ("Ah, I see you fainted there. You all right, love?" Or something) holding on while Hooper nudged past Fincher on the strength of his "train smash" poster takedown. He's playing the game, and he's playing to win. Fincher, in the meantime, is fending off slaps from entitled Swedish directors who apparently want their franchise legacies back. Stay thirsty, my friend.
The Leading 5:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
4. Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
5. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham
Outsiders: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine; Naomi Watts, Fair Game
Notes: "I haven't seen Natalie Portman in Black Swan yet," wrote Sasha Stone this week at Awards Daily...
But from what I can tell, I think we are really and truly looking at Bening's win, finally. The Oscar race for Best Actor or Actress is usually not about one singular performance, although sometimes it is. Most of the time, the statue rewards not just a body of work, but the moment the performer takes a giant step forward. In Bening's case, she turns in a much more toned down, less showy performance. And I think she's got the Oscar sewn up.
That is the 2010 race in a nutshell: Bening rules, then you see Black Swan and you're like, "Oh. Oh." And then Roadside Attractions spends another pot of money on ads for Jennifer Lawrence. Rinse, repeat. Whoever times their epiphanies just right for the final vote takes the Oscar home. Bening's co-star Moore, on the other hand, is on her way to Supporting Actress eventually (see below); I figure Manville and/or Williams will be back to the bubble by this time next week.
The Leading 5:
1. James Franco, 127 Hours
2. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
3. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
4. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
5. Robert Duvall, Get Low
Outsiders: Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version
Notes: Not much changing at the top of the Index, though don't confuse that with not much happening: Franco has upwards of 20 fainted moviegoers in his wake (the ones who make it out of 127 Hours without incident are borderline speechless), but Firth has literally every Oscar pundit at places like Gurus O'Gold in his pocket, and they count for plenty. I wouldn't be surprised to see a right arm actually cut off at the Weinstein Company over this race, probably an intern's, maybe the weekend receptionist's if the race is close enough.
Wahlberg, though... I dunno. I thought about the post AFI Fest bump, but then I read lines like, "Wahlberg's dull-eyed, sweet receptivity -- while combined with brute strength -- may hurt his awards chances" and "Best Actor is, to be perfectly honest going to be difficult for Wahlberg." Paired with continued prognostication about Robert Duvall breaking through (despite a movie with zero buzz), and my absolute certainty that Bardem is a lock for a nomination once Biutiful gets going, I'll err on the side of caution. Or, er, whatever you want to call it. Oscar Index! Caution! Danger! Ugh, is it over yet? All right, moving on...
The Leading 5:
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
3. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
4. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole
5. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Outsiders: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham; Amy Adams, The Fighter; Sissy Spacek, Get Low; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan
Notes: Good news for Jacki Weaver fans! Melissa Leo will not necessarily be the lock once presumed for her role as Wahlberg and Christian Bale's mother/manager in The Fighter. One viewer called her Oscar hype "embarrassing," and the context in which she comes up in Jeff Sneider's epic review at The Wrap is... not quite encouraging. Well, at least not for Leo. But her co-star? Sure: "While Leo will be the performance that women leave talking about, Adams' continually strong work can't be denied. I really don't think that many actresses could get as much out of that role as she did."
Bad news for Jacki Weaver fans! Leo's still got Paramount behind her, Amy Adams is coming hard on the outside, and check out Tom O'Neil's outrageous piece ordering Julianne Moore and Focus Features to just take Supporting and let everyone get on with their lives already. Ten-hut!
I'm not even going to say "please." Let's dispense with niceties and make this point as firmly as possible. Julianne Moore: If you want to do the right thing this Oscar season for The Kids Are All Right, your costar Annette Bening and yourself, you will immediately quit the Best Actress race and campaign in Supporting.
You and Bening have the best shots at winning Oscars as a result. Stay in the lead race and you may ruin both of your hopes.
Frankly, you have no realistic chance of winning the lead actress contest. According to the collective opinions of the 11 experts polled by Gold Derby as well as our editors, you won't even be nominated.
LOLZ. This guy! And you know what? He'll take credit when Moore does go to Supporting, as if that wasn't where she was headed all along. Whatever. It takes all kinds. Hey Tom, do a real service: Tell everyone but Weaver to quit the race. I'll buy you a new tacky shirt! Deal?
The Leading 5:
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
3. Armie Hammer, The Social Network
4. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
5. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Outsiders: Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Ed Harris, The Way Back; John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Matt Damon, True Grit; Paul Rudd, How Do You Know
Notes: It's over. @reverseDERF said so.