All is mostly calm as the second month of Movieline's Oscar Index commences -- mostly, that is, unless you're at the top of three of the four acting categories and/or trying to get your embattled African-American ensemble drama through stolid barriers of critical mass. Otherwise, it's just hunches, gossip and word-of-mouth business as usual. Let's talk it over.
[Click images for larger versions of each graph.]
The Leading 10:
1. The Social Network
2. 127 Hours
3. The King's Speech
4. Black Swan
5. True Grit
6. The Fighter
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. Inception
9. Toy Story 3
10. Winter's Bone
Outsiders: Blue Valentine; Another Year; For Colored Girls; Love and Other Drugs; Made in Dagenham; How Do You Know
Notes: 127 Hours had seemingly the most momentum of any Best Picture contender this week -- which will tend to happen the week before release, when the spotlight warms and everyone starts attempting to outdo each other's superlatives. Winter's Bone was another ascendant title, with star Jennifer Lawrence submitting to another round of awards press in L.A. and distributor Roadside Attractions apparently smelling goodwill around every corner. The fuss around that film stands in contrast to the generally inert Picture buzz for The Kids Are All Right, another summer opening that can't seem to get out of its own way; Annette Bening/Julianne Moore campaign haggling aside, I'm not sure anyone has talked about this legitimately competing for anything since before Toronto.
Critics took their first opportunities to tee off on Tyler Perry and For Colored Girls, knocking the film on its heels, out of the Index and into a tailspin it'll probably never recover from. Everybody but its principals and Lionsgate seems to want it to fail, but it's not like Perry is really out there stumping for it unless you count dredging up more abuse history with Oprah Winfrey, so... Yeah. At least people are attempting a conversation about Love and Other Drugs, which comfortably delivers white people doing act-y white things in a fundamentally sound way that white people can really sink their teeth into, even if they can't agree on whether it's Academy-friendly or even good, for that matter. This is what Oscar season should be about, right? Thanks anyway, Tyler.
The Leading 5:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
3. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
4. Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit
5. Christopher Nolan, Inception
Outsiders: David O. Russell, The Fighter; Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Peter Weir, The Way Back; Mike Leigh, Another Year; Edward Zwick, Love and Other Drugs
Notes: Not much to add here; literally no movement occurred in the director race with the slight exception of a few stirrings among once and future also-rans. It breaks my heart to see Aronofsky on the bubble. On the one hand we're still a ways off from Black Swan catching on in December, so it shouldn't be too big a deal. On the other hand, he's directing Wolverine 2 -- which, among the Hype Elite who grease these nominees' paths, is a Being Tyler Perry-level offense. Anyway, that top five looks virtually uncrackable at this point, with only the Coens (for pouring on the pulp) or Hooper (for his relative anonymity) remotely threatened with exile in the months ahead.
The Leading 5:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
4. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
5. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham
Outsiders: Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine; Naomi Watts, Fair Game
Notes: As mentioned before, the Lawrence Express steams ahead while the Bening-Moore Local stops every few days on this blog or that. Nicole Kidman and her Rabbit Hole co-star Dianne Wiest benefited from Rabbit Hole's first real trailer, which may as well have just had AWARDS CONSIDERATION ONLY -- NOT FOR SALE watermarked on its lower third. And Anne Hathaway is back in the mix because her character gets naked and does a real good Parkinson's thing. I think? I only know what I hear.
Oh, and something something Halle Berry something something Frankie and Alice. Onward...
The Leading 5:
1. James Franco, 127 Hours
2. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
3. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
4. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
5. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Outsiders: Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version
Notes: You know what? Screw Colin Firth. This year, the Actor race will come down to James Franco, Javier Bardem and Robert Duvall -- that perfect, Academy-ready triangle of lust-for-life upstart, worldly pro and distinguished fogey, all delivering milestone performances in showcase films. I have no evidence or inside information directing me to this knowledge, but hey -- you have no evidence or inside information directing me otherwise. I just know. (And admit it: King's Speech audience awards aside, so do you.)
The Leading 5:
1. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
2. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
3. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
4. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
5. Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole
Outsiders: Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham; Sissy Spacek, Get Low; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Elle Fanning, Somewhere
Notes: While nobody seems to be able to move the needle on Mark Wahlberg and Amy Adams's performances in The Fighter, word over the transom at ML's Oscar bureau has Leo and Christian Bale being the real deal as the mother and brother/trainer (um, respectively, obviously) of Wahlberg's titular Boston pugilist Mickey Ward. The word "transformative" came up, as did the phrase "chowderhead vérité," which is, like, wwwwowwwww. Suck on that, Helena Bonham Carter. I defensively said, "Is it anything like Jacki Weaver's Aussie venom?" but never received a reply, because why waste words on the obvious? Still, I stand firm. Also: Dianne Wiest was in that sad trailer about the dead kid that made everybody weep. What did you accomplish this week, Miranda Richardson?
The Leading 5:
1. Christian Bale, The Fighter
2. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
3. Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps
4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
5. Ed Harris, The Way Back
Outsiders: Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Sam Rockwell, Conviction; Matt Damon, True Grit; Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Paul Rudd, How Do You Know
Notes: Again regarding Bale: "Chowderhead vérité." Rush doesn't stand a chance. Michael Douglas spiked upward after Anchor Bay Releasing assumed Best Actor campaigning duties for his film Solitary Man, featuring a performance that might have driven the conversation a year ago -- after its Toronto '09 premiere -- were it actually Oscar-worthy. So watch Fox jam this down a few thousand sympathetic Academy throats while Sam Rockwell (and Fox Searchlight) watches dolefully from the margins. Armie Hammer is actively campaigning these days, a clear advantage over his franchise-bound (and gagged) Social Network co-star and a clear threat to either Garfield or Harris. Or Rockwell, if his champions have their way. Should be interesting...