A month into fall movie season means a month into Movieline's Oscar Index, your regular one-stop, fool-proof, carefully metered and weighed survey of the ongoing awards race. A few new players enter the mix this week, including a pair of legends joining the supporting player sweepstakes. But do they have a shot? Show your work..
[Click each image for a bigger version of the graph.]
The Leading 10:
1. The Social Network
2. The King's Speech
3. 127 Hours
4. Black Swan
5. True Grit
6. The Kids Are All Right
7. The Fighter
8. Inception
9. Toy Story 3
10. For Colored Girls
Outsiders: Winter's Bone; Blue Valentine; Another Year; Made in Dagenham; The Way Back
Notes: This week's Best Picture index reflects a relative handful of key happenings. First, people got over Disney's Secretariat hype (at least for Best Picture; Diane Lane remains on the bubble for at least another week in Best Actress), which cleared a path for Winter's Bone to leap into contention after a big showing among Monday's Gotham Award nominations. I know, I know: "The Gothams have nothing to do with the Oscars whatsoever, get out of the business, let the professionals..." etc., etc. All I know is that the attention didn't work against The Hurt Locker -- another early-year starter -- in 2009. Furthermore, when pundits are actively parsing Bone's chances in the quick-burning afterglow of things like The Way Back, there's something there. It's not my fault we've got months to wait and see what it is.
For those people who believe any Best Picture winner must go through Toronto, the slight bump in buzz for 127 Hours during this week's initial U.S. press tour was a welcome development. For those who think TIFF is for frontrunners and flukes, The Social Network's stronghold and The Fighter's sharp upward mobility is very good news. The latter film unveiled a new trailer (on a crucial, prestige night for dramatic TV- and moviegoers), a new poster, and drew raves at ShowEast, stabilizing itself against some skeptics' early-season attacks. Toy Story 3 took one step forward (with a big push for its forthcoming DVD release) but took two steps back when producers Joe Roth and Dick Zanuck hilariously lobbied Disney to launch a Best Picture campaign for their blockbuster Alice in Wonderland. Better luck never, guys.
Also: I can't vouch for For Colored Girls' permanence in the top 10, but I can say it is awesome and ambitious and fascinating and I'll keep it there until the bad buzz overtakes it or Lionsgate gives up, whichever comes first. Til then: The Tyler Perry Oscar train is pulling out of the station! Wooo-woooo! All aboooooard!
The Leading 5:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
3. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
4. Joel and Ethan Coen, _True Grit
5. Christopher Nolan, Inception
Outsiders: David O. Russell, The Fighter; Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Peter Weir, The Way Back; Mike Leigh, Another Year; Tyler Perry, For Colored Girls; Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right
Notes: Word on the street is that Danny Boyle has a legitimate chance at repeating as Best Director: He's staying in the spotlight, he's nicer than nice, and he has a better film than the one he Oscared with two years ago. Fincher's movie may still be superior (and Hooper's may yet be superior to both, at least as far as ballots go), but a lot may also hinge on their respective actors' fortunes -- and Franco is coming up fast as well. Russell was the week's biggest hype beneficiary, though you're going to have to see some seismic friggin' acclaim for The Fighter for the erstwhile enfant terrible to scoot anywhere near the front of this talented pack.
The Leading 5:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
5. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham
Outsiders: Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine; Diane Lane, Secretariat; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Naomi Watts, Fair Game
Notes: Not a lot going on here, honestly, with the notable exception of Lawrence's Gotham buzz and the slow smothering of goodwill toward Diane Lane and Secretariat. For reasons that are (to me) vague at best, Nicole Kidman's profile has grown once more for Rabbit Hole; I'll give her backers the benefit of the doubt until the reality of her good-but-not-great performance sinks in this December.
The Leading 5:
1. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
2. James Franco, 127 Hours
3. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
4. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
5. Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter
Outsiders: Jeff Bridges, True Grit; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version; Robert Duvall, Get Low;
Notes: Rob Riggle may be a fan of Jesse Eisenberg's, but the Social Network star will need a little sturdier push than that to keep pace with Franco and Firth and -- eventually -- Bardem. Of the three latter actors, Bardem had the best week as his latest Biutiful trailer finally surfaced online, showcasing as much of his extraordinary performance as a sliver of marketing can. He will most definitely be back. Watch out for Wahlberg as well (the Academy loves boxers), and don't count out Giamatti, who excels in Barney's Version and could be Sony Pictures Classics' wild card as Robert Duvall falls off the pace.
The Leading 5:
1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
2. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
3. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
4. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham
5. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Outsiders: Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole; Sissy Spacek, Get Low; Mila Kunis, Black Swan; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Elle Fanning, Somewhere
Notes: Everybody knew Melissa Leo would be back among the uppermost leaders at some point, and it took that new trailer -- and that accent, and that hair, God almighty that hair -- and all the other noise around the film to accomplish it. Jacki Weaver is still hanging in; people seem to want her to fare well despite all signs pointing to a complete lack of audience awareness of Animal Kingdom. I guess I'd better get on that. And check out Hailee Steinfeld, collecting swear-money from the boys on True Grit! True grit indeed. Finally, I think Sasha Stone's right about her case for a Sissy Spacek surprise -- I just don't know where she'd fit unless Richardson and Weaver dropped out. Coincidentally (conveniently?) their films share a distributor, so... yeah. Developing...
The Leading 5:
1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
2. Christian Bale, The Fighter
3. Ed Harris, The Way Back
4. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
5. Sam Rockwell, Conviction
Outsiders: Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps; Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Matt Damon, True Grit; Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Justin Timberlake, The Social Network; Paul Rudd, How Do You Know
Notes: Watch out, everyone -- here comes Michael Douglas. Fox reportedly plans to push the ailing star to a nomination for reprising Gordon Gekko, the role that won Douglas his only Oscar in 1988. This is a little icky at best and ghoulish at worst; there's nothing especially accomplished or profound about Douglas's work or the film around it, but observers are wondering if the Cancer Vote or whatever you want to call it can overtake the likes of Armie Hammer or -- more likely -- Sam Rockwell for the last spot. And don't look now, but here comes shapeshifting ne'er-do-well townie Christian Bale, How Do You Know scene-stealer Paul Rudd, and underdog Matt Damon -- the latter of whom gets this stirring endorsement from Lane Brown: "Is he any good here? Who knows! But with Hereafter's middling reviews, voters won't be confused about which of his performances to support this year." Can't lie! Dude's got a point.