Spikes and slides continue four weeks into Movieline's Oscar Index, with today's edition witnessing the rewards of a carefully timed rating controversy and/or Oscar-qualifying run. And there's plenty more movement to chronicle in the Big Six categories; have a look after the jump and let's talk it out below.
[Click each image for a bigger version of the graph.]
The Leading 10:
1. The Social Network
2. The King's Speech
3. Black Swan
4. 127 Hours
5. True Grit
6. The Kids Are All Right
7. Inception
8. Toy Story 3
9. The Fighter
10. For Colored Girls
Outsiders: Blue Valentine; The Way Back; Secretariat; Another Year; Made in Dagenham
Notes: Not a whole lot of change in the Best Picture index, though a few dynamic shifts had a minor impact on a few Top 10 candidates. Aaron Sorkin took one for the Social Network team with his response to the film's depiction of misogyny in the making of Facebook, which stood in fairly stark contrast to The King's Speech winning yet another Audience Award last week at the Hamptons International Film Festival. Network's second straight number-one weekend at the box office evinced a bit of immunity to backlash though, at least among ticket buyer; as long as the money keeps flowing, the Academy's memory will be pretty short -- at least until the Weinsteins wage full-on war sometime after next January's nominations.
Speaking of whom, the Weinstein Company hit a controversy home run last week with Blue Valentine's (supposedly temporary) NC-17 rating and N-Twee-17 trailer. Pundits everywhere defended the film's integrity, with Jeffrey Wells not alone in arguing that it is "a Best Picture candidate." That will die down eventually, but Peter Weir's The Way Back should stay strong following the announcement that it will have a one-week qualifying run in December; the Australian filmmaker has been nominated for four directing Oscars over three-plus decades of work, and he's not getting any younger.
Secretariat lost its footing after a mediocre opening and Disney's marketing chief explained to anyone who'd listen that she'll get the hang of her job soon enough. Not good -- though you have to like what it means for Toy Story 3, especially if whatever cash Disney intended for its horse movie for Jesus can be reallocated to push its beloved Pixar effort further along in the competition. We shall see. Finally, True Grit quieted down a bit, nudged into fifth place by the quietly ascendant 127 Hours. OK, maybe not "quietly"; James Franco in drag will simply have that effect.
The Leading 5:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
4. Joel and Ethan Coen, _True Grit
5. Christopher Nolan, Inception
Outsiders: Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; Peter Weir, The Way Back; Mike Leigh, Another Year; Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right; Tyler Perry, For Colored Girls
Notes: What a difference a week doesn't make, eh? Weir's the biggest story here, drawing rafts of notice for entering the race at pretty much just the right time -- after Fincher, the Coens and even Tyler Perry earned late-September campaign boosts, but just before the flurry of buzz sure to greet Danny Boyle in the weeks ahead of 127 Hours. Again, we were reminded of Hooper's audience darling, and the Coens enjoyed a bump by association as the American Society of Cinematographers -- a good Academy voting bloc to have on your side -- announced it would honor longtime Coens DP Roger Deakins at next year's ASC Awards. That takes place Feb. 13 -- smack in the middle of the Oscar voting period. A little thing, sure, but they add up.
The Leading 5:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
4. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Outsiders: ; Diane Lane, Secretariat; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine; Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; ; Naomi Watts, Fair Game
Notes: Same as it ever was -- sort of. Michelle Williams benefited from the pseudo-scandal around Blue Valentine; indeed, she is the only remotely good thing about the film. (I know, I know... I'm in the minority now, but talk to me in January.) I really liked Scott Feinberg's piece spelling out Jennifer Lawrence's case for sneaking in, and at Vulture, Lane Brown has a good point about Diane Lane: "They're in an awesome, bizarro feud over [Secretariat] itself, but both Roger Ebert and Andrew O'Hehir agree she's terrific in it." Anne Hathaway and Nicole Kidman should see some renewed buzz once their respective films bow next month at AFI Fest, but until then, they might want to just maintain in the middle where the seasonal hype can't burn them.
The Leading 5:
1. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
2. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
3. James Franco, 127 Hours
4. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
5. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Outsiders: Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version
Notes: I'd say this is a weak-ass category all around, but does it matter? It's pretty much Firth's to lose at this point whether or not you wind up falling for The King's Speech. The only real movement is on the bubble, where X-factor Wahlberg threatens to nudge Bardem, Bridges, Gosling and/or Duvall out of the running once anybody sees The Fighter. I still think Bardem is a favorite to at least be nominated, and he'll have a nice, post-127 Hours window of November to himself once Biutiful opens limited. Might Bridges, Gosling and Wahlberg cancel each other out in Firth's long December shadow?
The Leading 5:
1. Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
2. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
3. Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
4. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham
5. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Outsiders: Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole; Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Elle Fanning, Somewhere; Mila Kunis, Black Swan
Notes: The Academy has its Animal Kingdom screeners (and campaign T-shirts), the buzz is back on, and all is right for Jacki Weaver. Well, except for that part about Carter being in a possible Best Picture-winner. And no one having had a look at Melissa Leo's performance yet. And Miranda Richardson inching slowly up the list of buzzworthy contenders seemingly every week. But still! Instinct rules, and my money remains where it's been for months.
The Leading 5:
1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
2. Ed Harris, The Way Back
3. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
4. Christian Bale, The Fighter
5. Sam Rockwell, Conviction
Outsiders: Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Justin Timberlake, The Social Network; Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Matt Damon, True Grit; Vincent Cassel, Black Swan
Notes: No one had a better week than Ed Harris, an Oscarless veteran who ran into the race on The Way Back's, er, back. His is said to be a coiled, intensely smart performance (the film, however, is up for a little more critical debate), which has always been just fine with the actor's branch, at least for this category. The Social Network's biggest hit this week occurred with its actors; Timberlake is falling off the pace while Hammer held steady; I've heard the technique of his work as the Winklevoss twins fascinates a lot of folks who are nevertheless bothered by the VFX-iness of it all -- not unlike Zoe Saldana's turn last year in Avatar. Of course, she didn't have Sorkin writing for her, so we'll see.