Another busy week of new releases calls for another comprehensive week of forecasting box-office hopes, from the greatest Disney movie ever made about Secretariat to a reeling tumble into the 3-D wilds. There's plenty of Zack Galifianakis, rape-revenge and Katherine Heigl to go around as well -- plan your weekend accordingly! (And read on for this week's forecast.)
NATIONAL OUTLOOK
· Secretariat: Disney's marketing strategy is in place, and the heavy rotation of NFL/MLB advertisements, Oscar insinuation and "master-race propaganda" has taken hold in recent weeks. Is this -- the inspirational story of a middle-aged racehorse heir and the thoroughbred who helps her make history -- this year's Blind Side? Only time will tell -- which is to say that like any horse race, it's got a long track to run. Weeks, people! First we should just ask if it'll beat The Social Network, which has crazy week-two momentum based on almost more discussion this week than it had in the hype building up to opening. That's rare (and awesome), and unless horse movies for Jesus have some new cache I failed to anticipate, I think Secretariat will fall short of number one (but not too short -- let's say by less than a million dollars). FORECAST: $15.4 million (Movieline's full review forthcoming this morning.)
· Life As We Know It: And this won't be far behind Secretariat: Katherine Heigl's dramedy about a mismatched couple bequeathed their dead mutual friend's... baby? Cue the poop and pee and late-development-for-Josh Duhamel jokes, and cue also a modest opening that could sneak past $15 million if Heigl's "magic" functions better than it did for Killers earlier this year. I doubt it, but there's something there. FORECAST: (See Movieline's full review here.)
· It's Kind of a Funny Story: Opening on a quarter as many screens as the aforementioned pair, the adaptation of Ned Vizzini's semi-autobiographical novel has limited (at best) buzz despite the presence of Zack Galifianakis as the ersatz mentor to a young man (Keir Gilchrist) who checks himself into a mental institution. It hasn't been the most visible of films coming down the fall-movie pipe, though Focus Features is angling it as a 18-25 comedy with a heavy emphasis in college towns, so let me know if this happens to be a big deal in Lincoln or Madison or Austin or wherever. FORECAST: $3.7 million (See Movieline's full review here.)
STORM WARNING
· My Soul to Take: Wes Craven's film about a group of young people who may or may not have inherited a serial killer's multiple souls was shelved by Universal, converted to 3-D, and then tossed into the marketplace with all the grace and aplomb of puppies into a river. The filmmaker deserves better, and while the 3-D boost will help his opening a bit (as will Lionsgate's decision not to take Buried into wide release this weekend), things still aren't tracking well at all. There's always Scream 4... FORECAST: $7.9 million
· I Spit On Your Grave: Unrated (limited): Part unbridled exploitation bloodbath and part brooding backwoods indie, there's something genuinely appealing about Steven R. Monroe's nasty horror flick. I'm not quite sure what it is, though: Sarah Butler is good and game as the young writer brutalized by redneck tormentors -- who themselves are as tight an ensemble as you're going to find in a remake of a 1978 rape-revenge-genre landmark. (Andrew Howard as the sadistic sheriff with the secret life is especially committed.) And the ungodly violence inflicted on everyone here -- particularly in the final act -- makes you feel like the mayor of Squirm City. But Grave's mashing of grindhouse and class drama yields a potent chemistry that most torture-porn entries (Hostel chief among them) fake in their cynical franchise labs. This is the real deal, I think, and -- assuming you have the stomach for it -- pays off in surprising ways. Also: Forget the "It's date night" tagline; go alone (or at least sit separately) for the best, most harrowing effect.
REGIONAL OUTLOOK
· As Good as Dead (NY): Cary Elwes is held captive and tortured for a death for which he's not responsible... or is he? Andie MacDowell and Frank Whaley will get to the bottom of this.
· Budrus (NYC): Documentary about a cluster of nonviolent-protest proponents headquartered in the West Bank.
· Douchebag (NYC): Grubby Sundance alumnus about a groom-to-be and the friend who complicates the immediate lead-up to his wedding.
· Going Blind (NYC): Veteran documentarian Joe Lovett profiles a cluster of blind folks in the lead-up to his own loss of sight due to glaucoma. Yikes.
· Idiots & Angels: World-class animator Bill Plympton returns with the story of a man working out his issues with the angel wings suddenly appearing on his back.
· Inside Job (NYC): Crisis-profiler extraordinaire Charles Ferguson returns with his scorching look at how and why the global economy capsized. Almost as horrifying as I Spit on Your Grave, minus the fishhooks, lye and anal rape.
· It's a Wonderful Afterlife (limited): Indian/British comic thriller about a killer on the loose with her favorite weapon: Food. Sally Hawkins drops by as well.
· Jim (NYC): Genre- and period-hopping drama about a man's efforts at cloning his late wife and the futuristic aftermath of the inevitable human-clone war.
· Kings of Pastry (expanding to LA): DA Pennebaker and Chris Hegedus trail a handful of chefs contending for the highest distinction in French pastry: The hallowed MOF collar designating the Best Craftsman in France.
· Leaving (expanding to LA): Affluent doctor's wife Kristin Scott Thomas falls into an affair with a Spanish ex-con; passionate trysts and slow slides into trouble ensue. (See Movieline's full review here.)
· Letters to Father Jacob (NYC): Finnish import about an ex-con forced to take a job with a blind, lonely priest. Bonding and redemption ensue.
· Marwencol (NYC): Documentary about a mentally disabled beating victim who crafts a vast, miniaturized military tableau in his backyard.
· Nowhere Boy (limited): Sam Taylor-Wood's biopic about John Lennon's early years (featuring Aaron Johnson as the rock icon) finally makes its way to theaters on the occasion of Lennon's 70th birthday. (See Movieline's full review here.)
· Rachel (NYC): Withering documentary profiling the short life and tragic death of Rachel Corrie, the young activist killed by a bulldozer in 2003 while protesting the demolition of Palestinian homes in Gaza.
· Red White & Blue: Microbudget horror effort about all the things that can go viciously wrong between a nymphomaniac, her sadistic neighbor and her vengeful musician ex-fling in Austin.
· Robert Jay Lifton: Nazi Doctors (NYC): Documentary featuring the titular historian's analysis of what enabled Nazi doctors to commit their WWII atrocities -- and how they moved on from their crimes in the decades afterward.
· Stone (limited): A parole officer (Robert De Niro) gets stuck in a treacherous love-and-crime triangle with a cornrowed convict (Edward Norton) and sexy girlfriend (Milla Jovovich). (Movieline's full review forthcoming this morning.)
· Tamara Drewe: Stephen Frears's ensemble comedy of manners (based on the graphic novel by Posy Simmonds) feature Gemma Arterton as the title character, who throws her bucolic former community into oversexed upheaval upon her return from London. (See Movieline's full review here.)