The latest edition of the 2010 Oscar Index at the end of a relatively quiet week of awards buzz, with old favorites holding strong, a few new upstarts cracking the race and just about everyone else waiting to see what the Coens, David O. Russell and Tyler Perry (yes, that Tyler Perry) have up their sleeves. Read on for the latest rankings.
[Click each image for a bigger version of the graph.]
The Leading 10:
1. The Social Network
2. The King's Speech
3. Black Swan
4. True Grit
5. 127 Hours
6. The Kids Are All Right
7. Inception
8. The Fighter
9. Toy Story 3
10. For Colored Girls
Outsiders: Secretariat; Another Year; The Town ; Made in Dagenham; Somewhere; Love and Other Drugs
Notes: Three notable developments occurred this week right at the top, middle and bottom of the Best Picture Index. First, The Social Network's reviews were so good, its box-office opening so respectable, and its Academy screening well-received enough that the issue wasn't how it would hold on to its front-runner status, but rather how Harvey Weinstein might forcibly yank it from David Fincher and Co.
Meanwhile, True Grit followed last week's stirring teaser with a pulpy (maybe too pulpy, according to some) new trailer and poster. While the latter doesn't feature any stars, the cast as featured in the trailer acquits itself admirably and persuasively. The only question: Is this glorified genre flick really an "Oscar" film? Maybe, maybe not. It seems obvious enough to me that if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck -- and was important enough 40 years ago to earn John Wayne an Oscar like a... Duke (ahem) -- then it's a big, fat, awards-craving duck.
Finally, Lionsgate is serious about advancing Tyler Perry in this year's race, unleashing a striking new poster (right here!) and, more importantly, working to diversify the Oscars any way they can. Like True Grit, all we've seen is marketing, so keep your grain of hype salt handy. But when the overriding discussion about the closest competition on the bubble is how it wants to become the next Blind Side, don't think it hasn't occurred to Perry and Lionsgate how much better a chance they stand to have the next Precious. Don't even laugh.
The Leading 5:
1. David Fincher, The Social Network
2. Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
3. Danny Boyle, 127 Hours
4. Joel and Ethan Coen, _True Grit
5. Christopher Nolan, Inception
Outsiders: Darren Aronofsky, _Black Swan; David O. Russell, The Fighter; Mike Leigh, Another Year; Lisa Cholodenko, The Kids Are All Right; Tyler Perry, For Colored Girls
Notes: Not a lot to mention here beyond a lot of the above: The Coens are surging on the basis of some savvily timed market presence, not to mention the virtual inability of anybody beyond maybe Danny Boyle -- whose 127 Hours has shown decent leverage even ahead of its big pre-release push starting next week -- to mobilize any individual buzz, like, at all. Aronofsky paid for Boyle's steadiness, the Coens' upward burst and Christopher Nolan's comfortable, semipermanent fifth-place perch, but no worries; he'll be back as Black Swan approaches in December and once we see what Tom Hooper is really made of with the Academy.
The Leading 5:
1. Natalie Portman, Black Swan
2. Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
3. Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
4. Sally Hawkins, Made in Dagenham
5. Anne Hathaway, Love and Other Drugs
Outsiders: Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone; Diane Lane, Secretariat; Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine; Lesley Manville, Another Year; Naomi Watts, Fair Game
Notes: Not unlike True Grit, word is spreading that Love and Other Drugs is miscategorized as an Oscar-season hopeful -- that Anne Hathaway's performance is fine (the Academy loves disabilities) but "talk to me after you've seen it"... That kind of thing. Why be rational now, though?! This is the Oscars! Still, Made in Dagenham was celebrated in New York this week, boosting once more the profiles of its acting hopefuls Sally Hawkins and Miranda Richardson. And at least one pundit is super-optimistic (and at least somewhat convincing) about Bening and Moore's chances to grab two of the five top spots when nominations are announced next January. Watch out for Diane Lane, another Academy fave who will live or die by Secretariat's box-office performance this week and next.
The Leading 5:
1. Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
2. Colin Firth, The King's Speech
3. James Franco, 127 Hours
4. Javier Bardem, Biutiful
5. Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Outsiders: Mark Wahlberg, The Fighter; Robert Duvall, Get Low; Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine; Paul Giamatti, Barney's Version; Ryan Reynolds, Buried
Notes: Along with Director, is this likely to be the least fluid major category headed into nominations? Eisenberg hitched on to his film's momentum to overtake Firth, but that lead will trade hands more times than a stock-car race by the time this is over. Franco made the critical strategic move of posing in drag on a magazine cover, thus jousting him over the ever-calm, slowly sliding Javier Bardem. Bridges cracked the Top Five on the basis of his career-best line reading, "I can't do nothing for you, son" -- officially the slogan of Awards Season '10 around Movieline HQ.
These guys and their films will bruise each other for months, but excepting Wahlberg and possibly Duvall, I'd say all five had better be in it for the long haul.
The Leading 5:
1. [TIE] Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech; Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
3. Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
4. Melissa Leo, The Fighter
5. Miranda Richardson, Made in Dagenham
Outsiders: Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right; Barbara Hershey, Black Swan; Elle Fanning, Somewhere; Juliette Lewis, Conviction; Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole
Notes: Young Hailee Steinfeld sprung into a hype-fueled dead heat with Helena Bonham Carter, but check out the resurgent Jacki Weaver! Your own radical campaign T-shirt will tend to do that for you. Jacki Weaver FTW!
The Leading 5:
1. Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
2. Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
3. Christian Bale, The Fighter
4. Justin Timberlake, The Social Network
5. Sam Rockwell, Conviction
Outsiders: Armie Hammer, The Social Network; Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Matt Damon, True Grit; John Malkovich, Secretariat; Vincent Cassel, Black Swan
Notes: Like their movies' counterparts in the Actor category, Rush and Garfield will be waiting for the likes of The Fighter and True Grit before settling too comfortably into the one-two spot. But they've got to feel great about their chances at this point -- particularly Garfield, with even the rare Social Network critic managing to drop in a complimentary notice while picking apart virtually every performance around him. Hammer could usurp Timberlake's spot without much difficulty, especially as Academy voters discover the staggering dual nature of his performance as the Winklevoss twins. As for Rockwell... hang in there, Sam! If anyone wants to see you at the Kodak Theater next February, it's me.